The
12/12/13 post explained why Sound Transit should abandon their Prop 1 light
rail extensions. This post
provides more details about the light rail operating costs behind this
conclusion.
Each
light rail car costs about $25 per mile (excluding depreciation) to operate. The 13-mile extension to Lynnwood will cost Sound Transit $1300 per round trip for a
2-car train. With 4-minute
headways between trains, the 15 trains per hour will cost nearly $20,000 an
hour. Of the 20 hours of light
rail operation every day, presumbably about 8 hrs would be with 4 min. headways
and 12 hours with 8 minutes between trains. Thus it would cost $320,000 per day for ST to operate 2 car
trains to Lynnwood. Even if they managed to get the highly
unlikely 15,000 riders per day ST promised it would cost more than $21.00 per
rider in each direction.
Its
not clear whether the Sound Transit University Station has provisions that
allow trains to return to Seattle rather than continuing to Lynnwood. If they do, it makes their decision not to locate a T/C at
the University even more absurd. Thousands of 520 BRT commuters in both directions
could use the interface at the T/C for light rail trips to and from Seattle.
Light
rails problem in Seattle is that 2-car trains every 4 minutes through the tunnel
to Lynnwood limits East Link cross-lake service to 2-car trains every 8
min. during the peak hours and 16 minutes off peak. The resulting peak capacity of 2220 riders per hour (rph) (1110 rph off peak) with 148 riders-per-car is a tiny fraction of the 12,000 rph ST promised for
East Link in each direction. They
could double the capacity by going to 4-car trains and still fall far short of
promised level. Presumably,
operating costs for 4-car trains would require East Link trains not continue to
Lynnwood.
The
Federal Way extension has about the same operating cost per trip problem as
Lynnwood. Since only half the
trains go there the daily operating costs are halved. However the costs per rider will probably exceed those for
Lynnwood because of the far fewer riders from Federal Way.
In
conclusion the only way light rail can be viable in Seattle is to limit light rail
to a University to SeaTac “trunk line” and add a T/C at the University
Station. The University T/C would
add sufficient riders to justify the 4-car train operation needed to at least
approach the 110,000 daily riders Sound Transit initially promised voters. Stopping East Link would end the idiocy
of Sound Transit confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway capable of 1000
buses an hour for a 2-car train running every 8 minutes.
The bottom line is Sound Transit, in implementing the Prop 1 extensions will spend $20 billion over the next ten years creating a light rail system that will be too expensive to operate. Doing so with the state's current inability to find the funds to alleviate the 4th worst congestion in the country is insane.
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