The ST Stride/ WSDOT I-405 Problem

The previous posts detailed how the May 8th System Expansion Committee meeting video showed they didn’t recognize the folly of attempting to use the ST3 extensions of light rail to reduce congestion into Seattle. This post details why the committee video, and subsequent approval by the Sound Transit Board, of their plans for Stride BRT won’t reduce I-405 congestion.

A Sound Transit July 1, 2016, ST3 Map detailed Sound Transit's Prop 1 plan for reducing the congestion.  The 11-station, 38-mile route bretween Lynnwood and Burien was costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and projected to have 15,000—18,000 riders when completed in 2024. The ST3 plan details were included as “Key Attributes”.

 

The recent May 8th video showed the Baseline Stride BRT Program had devolved into four projects costing $2,350 million to be completed in Q2 2029.  The1st project was a Bus Base North costing $499.5M starting construction this summer, with completion Q4 2027.  Despite the Key Attributes including the following as one of the 10 “Not Included” projects: 

 

Operations and maintenance facility not included

 

Sound Transit didn’t need a 120-capacity bus maintenance facility for the 48 Stride buses.  They certainly didn’t need to spend additional funds for battery powered buses requiring conductive charging along the route, whose design was started in Q1-2024.

 

The I-405 BRT portions S1&S2 cost $1,269M with the following July 2023 announcement as part of the cost: 

 

                 Sound Transit board members approved a $287 million deal Thursday to                       fund a unique triple-decker interchange on I-405 

 
 Yet the I-405/NE 85^th In-Line Freeway Station has no parking within walking distance for access.   Another concern was the following:

 

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system

 

The problem being the WSDOT I-405 express toll lane system requires 2-person carpools transfer to GP lanes, or like SOV drivers, pay HOT fees to travel on one of two HOV lanes.   The increased GP lane congestion increases the number of those willing to pay the fees. 

 

During peak commute, the large numbers of those willing to pay the WSDOT's maximum $15 fee will increase HOV travel times for those paying the fees and those riding BRT buses. Especially between Bellevue and Renton (and presumably to Burien) where the WSDOT 2-lane HOT lanes will leave only 2 GP lanes. 

 

During peak commute,  the increased HOT travel times will dwarf any savings from Sound Transit improving access to stations as well as those paying the fees. During off peak commutes, imposing HOT on the 2^nd lane wastes the lane's capacity.

The bottom line is, Sound Transit is funding a bus base north that was precluded in ST3 Key Attributes. That until WSDOT decides to impose whatever HOT fee is needed to limit traffic on a single HOV lane, the benefits from Stride I-405 BRT are limited at best.

Terri Mestas Doesn't Get ST"s Real Problem,

The previous post concluded the video of the May 8^th Sound Transit Boards System Expansion Committee meeting exposed their “real problem”:  They don’t recognize the folly of the ST3 transit system expansions.  This post details how the meeting video of Terri Mestas, Capital Delivery Deputy CEO presentation, Reports to the Committee, typifies the problem. 

Her presentation detailed why Sound Transit needed a “Multiple Award Task Order Contract” (MATOC). That MATOC “provided access to experts to support a collection of projects or tasks”.  That it was “an essential tool for large programs, streamlined approach for an agency to procure a wide range of services with flexibility, efficiency, and competition. Ensuring that the agency gets the best value, time, and cost to the owner and industry”..  

The presentation continued with the MATOC, “eliminated the need for the announcement of individual contracts", and a chart depicting the savings.  That MATOC had the capacity to provide $500M for environmental service, $1B for Design assistance, and $1B for “Project Management/Construction Management Services. 

The Sound Transit contact would include Multi-year On-Call contracts for 5 base years and 2 one-year extensions. That the funding needed was already included in Sound Transit’s long-range budget.

The presentation was a clear indication Terri Mestas felt Sound Transit needed outside support.  She had been hired last March as a “Megaproject manager” for $600,000.  Per Seattle Times Traffic Lab, “by an immediate need by “nonspecialists” members of the transit board for a leader capable of steering the nation’s biggest transit expansion”.  

This for a Sound Transit Board whose 2025 budget for $957,5 million funding a 1572-position staff continued the years of staff funding and years and millions spent on transit advisory groups (TAG) and other outside consultants. Yet Mestas clearly believes Sound Transit needs to pay MATOC, potentially hundreds of millions, for advice on how to implement the remaining parts of ST3 transit system expansion.

Another example of those responsible for reducing the area’s congestion not recognizing the folly of attempting to do it with ST3.

Sound Transit Board’s Real Problems

The video of  May 8th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee meeting typifies the Sound Transit Board's approach to the area’s commuting needs.. The previous post had detailed the “challenge” they faced with deciding how many Line 2 cars would be routed through DSTT to reduce congestion from Lynnwood without costing too much to serve Redmond. 

 

However,  Sound Transit’s “real problelm” is they continue to implement  their version of the ST3 system expansion rather than improving the area’s public transit.  The video detailed the Board’s latest efforts to use the 2016 Prop 1 approval that allowed them to spend $54B between 2017 and  2041, to spend $150B between 2017 annually and 2046. Their current plan ends with $29B  in “tax backed debt”, requiring ~$1B in “Debt service payments” remaining in 2047 when ST3 taxes end.  

 

The video began with a Dow Constantine presentation, recently selected  as the Sound Transit CEO most likely to continue the ST3 extensions. The first budget item was a decision to pay each of four outside consultants up to $100,000 for 12 months of capital program advice.   Sound Transit’s 2025 Adopted Budget and Financial Plan,  the board approved in March, had included paying $957.5M to fund 1572 positions in their staff, including 205 “executives”.  Thus, the May 8th contracts were just the  latest example of Sound Transit paying transit advisory groups and outside consultants on how best to implement the  ST3 extensions.

 

The rest of the meeting dealt with how all the ST3 transit projects were proceeding.  Charts from the March 2025 System Expansion Monthly Status Report depicted status with different colored symbols. A response to the board’s apparent need for an update on progress “less detailed” than the previous monthly “Agency Progress Reports”.

 

The options for the segments of the Federal Way to Tacoma were presented. Sound Transit chose to use the Puyallup tribe objections to routing extension along I-5 to "prefer" a route along Route 99 that generated multiple objections from those along the highway.

 

Again, the Sound Transit Board’s real problem is first, they still don’t recognize that 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to accommodate the number of commuters needed to reduce peak hour multi lane freeway congestion. Rather than add bus routes and parking for increased capacity, Sound Transit plans to replace the routes, reducing transit capacity into Seattle.   With bus riders forced to transfer reducing access for existing commuters, and no GP lane congestion reduction.

 

The board’s second Real Problem, they don’t recognize providing commuters with access to light rail doesn’t assure they will use it. The 70,000 residents that lived within a mile of Starter Line stations resulted in only 1238 average inbound and outbound riders in March. 80,000 residents within a mile of the Lynnwood Link stations, 6643 riders.  Despite board expectations, it's unlikely the two stations added by Downtown Redmond Extension will add significant daily commuters. 

 

The May 8th video included plans for the 16.3-mile extension to Everett. It will double the operating cost for the round trip from Westlake but has few potential commuters. Yet the latest staffing assessment has 126.8 Full-time Monthly Equivalents doing the planning.  The “possible” result of the Sound Transit Board chair and member being Snohomish County Executive and Everett Mayor. 

 

Another part of the board's  “not-having-light-rail-ridership problem” is the assumption those having access to bus routes will choose to ride light rail or transfer to light rail trains for the commute into and out of Seattle.  Potential Ballard and West Seattle riders to Sodo already have Snohomish and King County  bus routes throughout the area from Everett and Burien. The routes have far more stops for accessing the buses into Seattle and more convenient stops in the city for egress and access on the  return than either of the two light rail train routes.

 

The Sound Transit’Board continues to advocate spending $20B and more than a decade disrupting the area to bore a second tunnel under Seattle and second bridge over Duwamish Waterway. Doing so despite the potential lack of riders  surely qualifies as a problem.

The bottom line is the video of the System Expansion Committee's May 8th meeting provides ample evidence the Sound Transit Board doesn't recognize the folly of implementing the ST3 extensions.  That's a real problem.

The Line 2 Link Challenge

The May 10^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab column “What you’ll find at Redmond’s new light rail stations,” touts how the “New segment connects parks, restaurants, and more along the Eastside”.    That, “All those destinations should make the Eastside 2 Lanes now-empty trains more versatile”. It’s not clear whether versatile, “adaptable to many uses”, assures more riders for the daily commutes.  

Especially since it follows a May 7^th Seattle Times front page column, “Light rail: Will new Redmond Stations fill train cars?”.  It reflected recent concern that “In March a mere 3240 passengers per day boarded the 6-mile Starter Line”. It neglected to consider that most passengers paid for two boardings, one to go into Downtown Seattle or South Bellevue and one to return. Thus, only 1620 commuters likely rode the Starter Line in March, despite having far more potential riders available.. 

The May 7^th column reported Sound Transit estimated that next winter, when people can ride light rail into Seattle, 5700 riders will use the two stations daily. However, it’s unlikely many of those will be “big city” residents traveling daily to Redmond. 

Until then, the hope is large numbers will walk to the Downtown Redmond Station (DRS) or drive to the 1400-stall Marymore Village Garage to ride light rail to Redmond Technology Station (RTS), downtown Bellevue, or South Bellevue.  The Traffic Lab finally recognizing “Ridership predictions are notoriously wrong”. 

Neither article mentioned Sound Transit’s cost for operating the Downtown Redmond Extension.  At $30-per-mile vehicle cost, the 2-car trips over the 3.4-mile extension every 10 minutes for 16 hours, will add about $40,000 per day to the 6.6-mile Starter Line $76,000 operating cost, $116,000 daily from DRS to South Bellevue.  

The ~8-mile extension from South Bellevue to International District Station adds ~$500 per trip or $48,000 for the 96 trips, for a total $164,000 daily.  Thus, even if 5700 riders paid $6.00 fares, for to-and-from destinations, the $34,000 fares would still leave $130,000 for Sound Transit to pay from other sources.

The Line 2 Link challenge is satisfying conflicting requirements.  Sound Transit had previously decided to use the extension to replace ST550, ending access to transit for many of the 4303 March ST550 boardings, (and presumably 2152 riders) at multiple stops in Bellevue and along route to South Bellevue P&R.  That all the I-90 corridor buses would terminate on Mercer Island forcing bus riders to transfer to and from Line 2 trains for the commute into and out of Seattle.

The challenge is Sound Transit complicates the scheduling issue by opting to route the Line 2 trains through DSTT to provide half the trains to Lynnwood.  Those trains will have to safely merge with Line 1 trains returning from Angel Lake and later Federal Way.  What train schedule is needed to assure safe operation? Will the Line 2 trains continue to be 2 cars that won’t have the capacity needed to Lynnwood or 4-cars that double to trip costs to Redmond?

The bottom line is the May 10^th Traffic Lab article makes the dubious assumption that large numbers of Seattle residents will use Line 2 to visit Redmond.  That some combination of the number of cars in Line 2 trains, an operating schedule that will assure safe operation, provides needed capacity during peak commute to and from Lynnwood without costing too much for Line 2 to Redmond.

A self-inflicted challenge from routing Line 2 beyond CID.

King County Executive Candidacy Statement

This year I’m filing to use the Voters’ Pamphlet County Executive Candidate’s statement to detail concerns with Sound Transit using voter Prop 1 approval in 2016 to spend $54B between 2017 and 2041 on ST3 extensions, to spend $150B between 2017 and 2046 and leave the area $18B in debt.  ST3 extensions for 4-car light rail  trains don’t have the capacity to attract ridership needed to reduce peak hour congestion on I-5 corridor or across I-90 Bridge, and cost too much to operate during off peak hours. 

Yet, ST has spent and will continue to spend hundreds of millions on light rail extensions beyond UW and SeaTac, and across I-90 bridge that do nothing to reduce congestion into Seattle. They exacerbate the capacity and cost problem by opting to use light rail trains to replace bus routes into the city.   

Thus, ST, which could have added BRT routes to increase transit capacity, has used ST3 extensions to reduce bus capacity and nothing to reduce GP lane congestion. The bus riders will limit current-rider access during peak hours and require funding 4-car train operation when a single HCT bus would suffice.  Future ST3 “spine” extensions will further reduce bus routes, transit capacity, and increase costs.

The 2024 Lynnwood Link debut demonstrated providing commuters with access to light rail doesn’t assure riders.  The 80,000 residents living within a mile of the Link stations resulted in 6643 March 2025 Lynnwood boardings; most of whom were former bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the stations.  

A clear warning for future ST3 light rail spine extensions, especially for ST plans to route Line 2 trains through DSTT to Lynnwood and beyond. Doing so limits Line 2 train frequency, halves trains to SeaTac, and complicates merging with Line 1 trains returning to CID.

Ridership that also raises doubts as to whether Ballard and West Seattle to Sodo extensions justify the cost of boring a 2^nd tunnel under Seattle or constructing a 2^nd Duwamish Waterway bridge.  Especially since both areas have King and Snohomish County bus service that benefit from having multiple stops from Everett to Burien to more convenient stops for egress and access in downtown Seattle than light rail trains with stops in DSTT and Sodo.  Aborting both links woud save nearly $20B and a decade of disruption during construction. 

The latest example of the ST boards approach to ST3 is the 2025 budget they approved in March.  It details a staffing budget of $957.5 M for 1572 positions including 194 “executives”. Yet, pays others to finalize transit system design and construction, and drive and maintain light rail cars and buses.  

The budget neglected to include 130 contracts labeled as “Sound Transit Proprietary and Confidential” in excess of $100,000.  Presumably allowed by an 18 member board, each receiving over $200,000 in compensation, that’s shown more interest in transit oriented development and affording housing than in reducing congestion. 

Again, another year of concerns with Sound Transit’s ST3 extensions.

Downtown Redmond Light Rail Extension

The Downtown Redmond Light Rail Extension, the Seattle Times heralded with a January 31 Traffic Lab article as, “A pair of new light rail stations the May 10th opening with fan fair”, will be the next Sound Transit ST3 extension to debut. 

The 3.4-mile extension from the Redmond Technology Station(RTS)  to downtown Redmond Transit Center (RTC) adds 6.8 miles to the current 13.2-mile Starter Line round trip to-and-from South Bellevue T/C.   Sound Transit budgets light rail cars at ~$30 per mile. Thus, a 2-car train to-and-from RTS tp RTC will add ~$400 to the   ~$800 current Starter Line round trip cost.   

 

Maintaining the current schedule, trains every 10 minutes from 5:30 a.m.to 9:30 p.m,  requires 96 round trips adds ~$38,400 to the current  ~$76,800 for a total $113,200 weekday cost for Starter Line operation.  The Sound Transits “Ridership—Ridership” March reported 2476 average weekday boardings for the current Starter Line route.  Assuming all the boardings resulted in $3.00 fares for ~$7500 daily fare box revenue, and a fare box recovery of ~10%.  The Downtown Redmond extension costs wlll reduce the farebox recovery for those for current Startline boardings to ~6.6%. 

 

Even those numbers don’t reflect the true fare box recovery since many riders fail to pay the $3.00 fare. For example,  the 4th Quarterly Financial Report for  2024 reported the 29,518,000 riders only paid $38,933,000 fare money or $1.32 per rider.  While it’s not clear how many of those not paying were Starter Line boarders, the actual RTS to South Bellevue P&R farebox recovery was well below Sound Transit supposed”targets”. 

 

The farebox recovery also depends on how many commuters will walk to the downtown RTC or drive to the 1200-stall Marymore P&R for the light rail ride to Bellevue  T/C or South Bellevue P&R.  Commuters currently have access to King County Metro’s RapidRide B.  Its routed from Redmond Transit Center (RTC) through Redmond Technology Station (RTS) to Bellevue Transit Center (BTC), 

 

The RabidRide  route from RTC-to-RTS provides 10 scheduled stops for access with 3 in Redmond and several along 148th Ave.  The improved access wirth added stops requires 15 minutes for the route.  That adds to the 23 minutes from RTS to Bellevue T/C on RapidRide compared to the current 13 minutes on the Starter Line schedule.

 

The bottom line is the Downtown Redmond light rail extension debut later this year will demonstrate whether shorter travel times outweigh the lack of access for commuters into Bellevue.  The 2024 Starter Line ridership results show it didn’t, likely reaffirming the folly of another ST3 extension.  

System Expansion Committee Incompetence

The previous post on this blog concluded the Seattle Times Traffic Lab should not abide Sound Transit getting billions in 75-year bonds to fund the ST3 light rail spine along the I-5 corridor.  This post concludes  the video of the April 10th System Expansion Committee exposes why they shouldn’t increase funding for West Seattle and Ballard portions of ST3 with  Resolution No. R2025-10,

The meeting agenda included increasing the budget to advance West Seattle extension from Preliminary Engineering to Final Design Phase from $270,340,862 to $331,740,863 and the adopted 2025 budget from $94,926,236 to $99,998,561.  The Ballard Link budget was increased from $806,619,999 to $814,019.999 and the adopted 2025 budget from $96,298,561 to 99,998,561.

The money funded Project Management Support Services (PMSS) and Engineering Design Support (Eds) for light rail from West Seattle across 2^nd Duwamish Waterway bridge to SODO and from Ballard though 2^nd tunnel also to SODO.  They were Sound Transit’s attempts to reduce the eventual cost of both extensions and were unanimously approved by the System Expansion Committee.

While the funding for Eds to reduce the costs seemed normal, it wasn’t clear why the PMSS.  However, no one on the committee questioned why the costs had increased nearly $49 million from the 2025 Sound Transit “Adopted Budget and Financial Plan” they ‘d just adopted in March.  

One PMSS function could have been reviewing the justification for implementing the light rail extensions from Ballard and West Seattle to SODO. While they had been included in Prop 1 approval, the ST3 costs had increased from $54 billion in 2016 to $150 billion, surely merited some review.

The 2024 debut of the Starter Line and Lynnwood extension demonstrated another ST3 problem: access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. 70,000 residents live within a mile of Starter Line stations and 80,000 within a mile of the Lynnwood Link stations.  Yet, in March only 1238 average inbound and outbound riders rode Starter Line and 6643 riders used Lynnwood stations for access to light rail.  Most of the Lynnwood boarders were former bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the stations. 

Thus, any PMSS spending should consider whether riders added by light rail from Ballard to SODO or Alaska Junction in West Seattle to SODO would justify the cost of boring a second tunnel or second Duwamish Waterway bridge.   Especially since both areas already have excellent service from RapidRide, or other King or Snohomish County bus routes.  Bus routes have the advantage of having far more stops for access on the route into Seattle with far more convenient stops in the city.

The bottom line is the increasing cost of  Ballard and West Seattle light rail to SODO and the lack of Lynnwood Link and Starter Line riders justify the need for a PMSS study of those ST3 projects that could really cut costs. The April 10th System Expansion Committee approval of Resolution No. R2025-10 without it typifies their incompetence.