More Sound Transit Incompetence

 The previous post concluded that if the WSDOT insisted on imposing HOT fees on two I-405 HOV lanes, the motions in Sound Transit Board’s October 23^rd agenda for funding their I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will do little to help those willing to pay the HOT fees and will increase the travel times for those who won’t. The  agenda, the latest result of a July 1, 2016 Prop 1, ST3 Map for a 11-station, 38-mile route between Lynnwood and Burien, Sound Transit costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and Sound Transit projected,  when completed in 2024,  would have 15,000—18,000 riders.

 

This post details the results of the board meeting.  As expected, they unanimously approved Motion No. M2025-50, spending up to $55.4 million to improve Renton Transit Center, M2025-51, up to $178.9 million on a Tukwila International Boulevard Station, and an unknown amount to WSDOT for construction of Stride Bus Rapid Transit Improvements.   

 

The original prediction for 2024 completion has slid until 2029 with added S1 Line parking on NE 44^th and near Renton T/C delayed until 2034.  Sound Transit is no longer making S1 and S2 ridership predictions. Commuters in the S1 area are currently served by ST Express Ridership Route 560. It makes multiple stops from Bellevue T/C, along I-405, Renton T/C and Rainier Ave, to SeaTac terminal and on SR-518 to Burien TC and beyond to Westwood Village.  It currently runs every 30 minutes from 5:07 a.m. to 7:07 p.m. and hourly until 10:37 p.m. The August ridership, 1369 average boardings per day.  

 

However, that schedule ends on March 28^th so it’s unclear what happens until Sound Transit implements S1 part of I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project in 2029 with plans to replace 560 Route.  Their current overview:

 

The Stride S1 Line will connect communities along I-405 and SR 518 from Bellevue to Burien. Like all Stride routes, buses on the S1 Line will run every 10 to 15 minutes, 17+ hours per day. The S1 Line will connect to Link light rail stations at the Bellevue Transit Center, above the Bellevue Downtown Station, and Tukwila International Boulevard Station. The S1 Line will provide seamless transfers to transit services provided by Sound Transit, Community Transit, and King County Metro. The Stride S1 and S2 fleets will consist of double-decker battery-electric buses.

 

The map shows 405 stops at new parking on NE 44th and Renton T/C and a new station on Tukwila International Blvd on 518, terminating S1 Line at Burien T/C.  Thus, commuters will lose access to the 560 Route stops along 405 and beyond Burien T/C on 518  to Westwood Village.  Again, 560 Route riders had a stop at SeaTac Terminal.  S1 riders will need to use the Tukwila station, walk across a 518 overpass  to get to and from a 1 Line train to terminal. 

 

The new  Stride double-decker battery electric buses will need to be “charged while  laying over at both ends of the route and overnight at the Base.”  It's not clear how buses every 10-15 minutes allows for charging and will Bellevue and Burien T/Cs  have facilities to do so.  It’s also not clear whether ridership will justify increasing the two 560 Route buses per hour to six with S1 Line.

 

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board’s approval of S1 Line and the I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will result in commuters loosing access to transit. That Sound Transit will spend nearly $200 million to allow those who do have access to transfer to 1 Line trains to reach SeaTac.

 

It's another example  of an 18 member Sound Transit Board, each paid more than $200,000, to "direct" a 1600 member staff with a  $1 billion budget, continuing to spend hundreds of millions on projects that won’t reduce congestion.  All abetted by Seattle Times Traffic Lab.

I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit Project Problems

The Sound Transit Board October 23, 2025, agenda included the following Business Items:

B. Motion No. M2025-50: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract with Shimmick Construction Company, Inc. for construction services for the Stride Renton Transit Center, a component of the I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project, in the amount of $48,194,800 with a 15 percent contingency of $7,229,220 for a total authorized contract amount not to exceed $55,424,020, plus applicable taxes.

 

C. Motion No. M2025-51: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a construction agreement with the Washington State Department of Transportation for the design build delivery of the Tukwila International Boulevard Bus Rapid Transit project as part of the I-405 Bus Rapid Transit project in the amount of $168,740,000 with a six percent contingency of $10,124,400 fora total authorized agreement amount not to exceed $178,864,400.

 

D. Motion No. M2025-52: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a master agreement with the Washington State Department of Transportation for the construction of Stride Bus Rapid Transit Improvements by Sound Transit on State Highway Right of Way and authorizes issuance of task orders under the master agreement for specific projects.

 

The 3 motions didn’t include the normal recommendation for passage as the October 9th System Expansion Meeting was cancelled.  They are the  latest result of the July 1, 2016 Prop 1 ST3 Map for Stride I 405 BRT,  a 11-station, 38-mile route between Lynnwood and Burien was costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and projected to have 15,000—18,000 riders when completed in 2024. 

 

A May 8th System Expansion Committee video showed the Baseline Stride BRT Program had devolved into four projects costing $2,350 million to be completed in Q2 2029.  The 1st project was a Bus Base North costing $499.5M starting construction this summer, with completion Q4 2027.  Despite the Key Attributes including the following as one of the 10 “Not Included” projects: 

 

Operations and maintenance facility not included

 

 

The Sound Transit board approved spending $287 million on a triple-decker interchange on I-405 with no parking for access. Another concern was the following:

 

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system

 

The problem being the WSDOT I-405 express toll lane system requires 2-person carpools transfer to GP lanes, or like SOV drivers, pay HOT fees to travel on one of two HOV lanes.   During peak commute the increased GP lane congestion will increase the number of those willing to pay the current fees, potentially slowing HOT funded HOV lanes. Especially between Bellevue and Burien, where the WSDOT 2-lane HOT lanes will leave only 2 GP lanes.  During off-peak commutes those willing to pay will result in wasted HOV lane capacity yet needless congestion on GP lanes.  

Both problems could be resolved if the WSDOT would increase HOT fees on a single HOV lane to whatever it took to limit traffic to assure target velocity and travel time.  The additional GP lane would reduce congestion and travel timed for those not willing to pay.

 

Instead, the bottom line is whatever money Sound Transit will spend on I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will do little to help those willing to pay the 

 HOT fees and increase the travel times for those who won’t.

 

Neither County Executive Candidate Gets ST Problem

The October 9^th Traffic Lab article detailing where King County executive candidates stood on light rail epitomizes the Sound Transit debacle.  Neither candidate recognizes Sound Transit’s real problem.  The ST3 light rail extensions voters approved with Prop 1 in 2016 won’t reduce the area’s congestion. 4-car trains don’t have the capacity to attract the riders needed to reduce multi lane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. That providing commuters with access to light rail trains doesn’t assure they’ll ride them.

Sound Transit compounds the light-rail-train-capacity problem by using trains to replace bus routes, reducing transit capacity into Seattle. The more the extensions, the more the lost transit capacity, and the less access for current riders during peak hour commutes.  The longer the extensions, the greater the light rail trains operating costs off-peak. Thus, Sound Transit should have never extended light rail beyond University Stadium, across I-90 bridge, or beyond SeaTac.

Boardings from Sound Transit’s 2024 Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debuts demonstrated having access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership.  The 1400 stall Marymoor Village Parking garage had fewer than 100 cars.  The 9 Starter Line stations attracted 9500 boardings in July. However, since the boardings presumably reflected inbound and return trips, only 4750 riders, less than half the 11,000 daily passengers in Traffic Lab article, rode the Starter Line. 

The question remains as to how many commuters will be attracted by having access to 2 Line route across I-90 Bridge and beyond to Lynnwood. Those using the Starter Line for the commute into and out of downtown Bellevue won’t. Thus, how many Starter Line boardings will the cross-lake extension add?

Sound Transit will use the 2 Line extension to replace Express Bus 550 Route into and out of Seattle, forcing commuters to find access at Bellevue T/C or East Main Station. All those riding I-90 corridor cross-lake bus routes will be forced to transfer to 2 Line trains on Mercer Island. (Neither candidate  recognizes the once over-crowded parking garages in Issaquah, Eastgate, and South Bellevue are largely empty.) The lack of access for 550 Route riders and the need to transfer for those using the parking along with the hassle of finding access in DSTT for the return ride will likely dissuade many commuters from using transit.

Again, Sound Transit’s other problem is that providing commuters with access to light rail doesn’t assure riders. 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in only 8462 daily riders in July, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 predicted. The transit options already available for Federal Way area commuters will "likely" limit 1 Line boardings for  Federal Way Link in December to far less than the 20,000 projected.

The bottom line is neither King County Executive Candidate recognizes Sound Transit problems.  That a staff of 1600 with a budget over $1billion is spending hundreds of millions on “outside” help to better implement ST3 extensions that won’t reduce congestion. 

The December debut of Federal Way extension and next year’s 2 Llne I-90 debut route will demonstrate both candidates lack transit system competence

Sound Transit’s Internal Reoganization Budget

The September  28th Sound Transit Board meeting video showed the board unanimously approving the following “Business Item”.

A. Resolution No. R2025-23: Amending the adopted 2025 budget to align with the internal reorganization by 1) decreasing the 2025 annual budget for the Administrative Project – Agency Admin Support by $66,621,831 from $147,117,488 to $80,495,657 and decreasing the authorized project allocation by $1,323,359,296 from $1,941,536,791 to $618,177,495; 2) Increasing the Transit Modes 2025 annual operating budget by $12,807,599 from $756,311,771to $769,119,370; 3) creating a new project for System Expansion Indirect Costs with a 2025 annual budget of $53,814,232 and an authorized project allocation of $1,323,359,296, all of which have a net neutral impact to the 2025 annual budget.–Recommended by the Finance and Audit Committee; requires a supermajority vote

The presentation to both the Finance and Audit Committee and Sound Transit Board included charts detailing  the resultant changes to the 2025 budget. (It seemed rather late to be reducing the 2025 annual operating budget by $12.8 million.)  Apparently it was the result of some recent  “internal reorganization” to improve transparency.  (The 2025 Adopted Budget & Financial Plan,  Appendix C: Departments and Staffing included 1583 positions and a $960,324,000 budget)   

The resolution’s result was  $1,323 million was taken from authorized project allocation and $67 million from agency administration support budgets to create a new indirect cost budget for System Expansion projects.  A chart showed the 2026 budget would "break out" Indirect costs for System Expansion  and Service Delivery Projects. 

Apparently neither  Sound Transit’s Finance and Audit Committee or Sound Transit Board recognized diverting $1,323 million form authorized projects to whatever entails ”indirect costs for system expansion and service delivery” doesn’t improve “transparancy”.   That  the plan for reducing $66.6 million  from Agency  Admin Support  assumes  former administrators  will be able to provide  Indirect System Expansion and Delivery Support”

The bottom line is Sound Transit approval of Resolution No. R2025-23 will result in diverting money previously allocated to authorized projects and require former administrators to provide indirect support for system expansion and service delivery.   We await the 2026 budget to detail what “indirect support for system expansion and delivery means”.

ST CEO Constantine's “Fresh Look” at Budget

An earlier post detailed CEO Constantine’s response to a 20%-25% increase over the 2024 Long Term Financial Plan and $22B-$30B more capital in year of expenditures was “everything is on the table,” and hoped a “fresh look will improve future transit.”

The September 25^th Sound Transit Board meeting video showed the results of his board’s “fresh look”.  Without any comment the board unanimously approved a Consent Agenda that included the following:

 

Motion No. M2025-48: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract modification with Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. for additional Everett Link Extension and Operations and Maintenance Facility North Phase 2 work for project development services including advancement of Conceptual Engineering and preparation of the Draft EIS and partial exercise a contract option to advance specific geotechnical scopes from Phase 3 of the contract in the amount of $73,000,000 with a 10 percent contingency of $7,300,000 totaling $80,300,000 for a new total authorized contract amount not to exceed $173,512,897, Recommended by the System Expansion Committee

 

Thus, Sound Transit’s  “fresh look” will include spending up to $173.5 million for preliminary work on an ST3 light rail extension to Everett and a north maintenance facility. They still don’t recognize that providing access to transit doesn’t assure riders. That 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in only 8462 riders in July, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 they’d predicted.  

 

Sound Transit’s been studying the extension since 2021 with the Agency Progress Report: Capital Program, June 2024 (latest available) showing a staff of 18.5 and 106.3 “consultants”. Yet, they still haven’t provided any data concerning the total cost or predicted ridership. 

 

The latest Everett Link Extension website details it will add 16 miles of light rail, 6 new stations, and an Operation and Maintenance Facility (OMF) North. Yet the Mariner station,the only one with parking for access, won’t add parking until 2046.  They still haven’t found the 100 acres they’ll need for OMF North or what it will cost.

 

The Everett Extension service plan, 4-6 minutes during peak, 10-15 minutes midday, weekends and evenings requires ~150 round trips, with 75 to Mariner and 75 to Everett. (it’s not clear how they will merge the 1 Line return routes from Everett with the  2 Line routes to Mariner)  

 

The cost of providing those trains was presumably part of the $5B added annually by extensions that prompted Constantine’s need for a “Fresh Look”. With $30.15 per vehicle revenue mile cost (per 2024 actual cost)  the 16 mile extension will add  $3860 for the round trip from Lynnwood to and from Everett, and about half that to Mariner station and back.  Thus, the Everett Link will add $432,000 to weekday daily costs.

However, potential Everett Link riders already have Community Transit  512 Routes to Lynnwood. Sound Transit's June Ridership reported 1135 daily boarders. It runs from every 15 minutes during most of the day from 3:55 a.m. to 11:25 p.m. taking about 20 minutes for the trip. With $17.05 revenue mile bus operating costs, the 14-mile route to Everett and back  costs $477.40, $38,192 for the 80 daily trips.

 

The bottom line is Constantine’s “Fresh Look” could cancel the Everett Link extension and save unknown billions spent extending tracks for light rail trains that cost nearly $400,000 daily more to operate than the bus routes they'll replace.