Real Sound Transit Savings

The previous post concluded the Seattle Times Traffic Lab was abiding Sound Transit spending millions extending 1-Line to Tacoma Dome for boardings that will end peak hour access for current riders.  This post details Sound Transit is spending up to $500 million over 7 years for “environmental services” on Sound Transit Projects that won’t reduce congestion.

The video of the June 26^th Sound Transit Board Meeting showed them unanimously approving the following agenda Business Item:

 

E. Motion No. M2025-32: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute 15 individual Multiple Award Task Order Contract (MOTAC)  for five years, each with two one-year options to extend, with Akana, Atlas, CDM Smith, Confluence Environmental Company, Cordoba Corporation, ESA,Haley & Aldrich, HNTB Corporation, Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., Parametrix, RSI Remediation, LLC, Stell Environmental Enterprises, Inc., TRC Environmental Corporation, and WSP USA Inc. to provide Sound Transit with environmental services such that the aggregate total amount of the 15 contracts does not exceed $500,000,000 over the potential seven-year period, 

 

This for a Sound Transit Board who in March approved a 2025 Adopted Budget and Financial Plan spending $957,5 million funding a 1572-position staff.  It continued the years of staff funding and the years and millions spent on transit advisory groups (TAG) and other outside consultants. The 256-page 2025 budget includes Appendix K, Project Detail Pages120-240 of System Expansion Funding details. Scope, Authorized Allocation, and Budget, for 13 Sounder and 20 Link Light Rail Projects were included, presumably reflecting the years of TAG and outside consultant advice.  

Yet Megaproject Manager, Terri Mestas, clearly believes Sound Transit needs to pay some 15 outside companies up to $500 million for advice on how to better implement the Appendix K projects.  It’s not clear who decides which outside company gets which project and why. Also, who monitors the outside company’s performance?  

Mestas apparently doesn’t recognize that saving money and time implementing many of the remaining projects doesn’t change their efficacy.  For example, saving money and time doesn’t change the Lynnwood Link ridership that indicated the Everett and Tacoma light rail spine extensions won’t attract the riders needed to justify the costs of extending light rail tracks and light rail train operating costs.  

That the Starter Line failure to attract projected riders should raise concerns with potential Ballard and West Seattle extensions. Both service areas already have KCM coverage with far better access for commutes into Seattle and more convenient stops there. 

The bottom line is Mestas spending the MATOC money to reduce the cost of I-Line extensions to Everett and Tacoma, and light rail service from Ballard and West Seattle doesn’t change the fact that not doing the extensions or implementing light rail service could save billions.

 

 

Traffic Lab Ignores Sound Transit’s Tacoma Extension Problem

The Seattle Times’s Traffic Lab is the paper’s “ project that explores the region's policies that determine how we get around and how billions of dollars in public money are spent”.  A previous post detailed how, prior to the 2016 Prop 1 vote, the paper had recommended voters say “No to Sound Transit 3”.  Yet, their Traffic Lab  project continues to abide if not abbet Sound Transit spending billions on projects that will do nothing to reduce the area’s congestion and leave a huge debt. 

The latest example being the Traffic Lab abiding a June 12^th System Expansion Committee meeting detailing the Sound Transit approach to spending.  The meeting agenda “For recommendation to the Board”, included Motion No. M2025-31, adding up to $87,902,394 for a total not to exceed $181.555,740 for “Phase 3 project development services for the Tacoma Dome Link Extension" project.  

 

That funding was quoted as “Contingent on approval of  Resolution No. R2025-14 amending the Adopted 2025 Budget“ for the extension. (A budget they’d just approved in March) It authorized a $144,950,939 increase in 2025 budget from $112,388,021 to $257,388,960. (Sound Transit apparently doesn’t like reporting their spending in “millions”. ) 

 

It wasn’t clear with M2025-31 taking the additional ~$88 million, where the rest of the R2025-14’s additional $145 million in 2025 budget will be spent.  What is clear is that the Traffic Lab is abiding Sound Transit’s System Expansion Committee’s failure to recognize that the ST3 extension to Tacoma won’t reduce the area’s congestion. 

 

They don’t recognize Sound Transit’s problem with light rail trains limited to 4 cars.  Each 74-seat car can accommodate up to 148 riders, 592 per train. A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded safe operation requires 4 minutes between trains, limiting capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph). 

 

The Traffic Lab should “explore” how that limit affects benefits from theTacoma Link extension. Sound Transit’s latest ridership report for the 1 Line stations from Stadium to Angle Lake was 37,265 boardings, with 11,183 boardings at SeaTac. 

 

If 80% of the 26,082 boardings from the other nine stations were for routes into Seattle during the 3-hour peak commute, 1-Line boardings from Angle Lake to Stadium would average 6955 rph,  When 2 Line trains begin service early next year, Line I capacity will be limited to 4440 rph,  Thus, current Line 1 commuters nearer downtown will lose peak hour access to transit. 

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The extension to Federal Way later adds to the 1-Line boarders’ loss. A June 2024 Traffic Lab article claimed it would add, ”18,000 to 23,000 passengers.“  A similar analysis adds between 4800 and 6122 rph peak hour boardings on the route into Seattle, displacing even more current 1-Line boarders.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit plans to spend millions on the Tacoma extension will further reduce current boarder access.  The Traffic Lab should recommend the Sound Transit Board delay funding the extension until next year when both Line 2 and Federal Way ridership effects on access for current  1-Line peak commute boardings are known.

 

Sound Transit Ignores Line 2 Problems

The previous post detailed why additional testing wouldn’t “fix” Line 2 problems.  How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma? That maintaining the current schedule;  4-car trains every 10 minute for 16 hours requires 96 round trips for a $414,720 weekday cost..

That the Downtown Redmond Extension ridership was "likely" a tiny fraction of the 5700 expected when they are able to go into Seattle.  Again demonstrating that providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. That Sound Transit should terminate Line 2 at the existing ID/C, allow its operation to be set by Eastside transit demands and for Line 1 to meet transit needs to both Lynnwood and Federal Way.  

This post details the video of Sound Transit’s Rider Experience and Operations Committee Meeting 06/05/2025 shows a lack of concern over the issues with their 2 Line Service Plan for Cross Lake Connection:

Trains arrive every 8 mins peak, and 10-15 minutes off-peak, Saturdays, and Sundays

Combined headways between ID/C and Lynnwood City Center  on the 1 and 2 Lines of 4-8 minutes

Service operates approximately 5:00 a.m. – midnight

The June 6 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article result, “Downtown Seattle light rail stations will be closed Sunday detailed the resulting “light rail disruption this weekend”.  Making connections between Eastside 2 Line and the growing 1 Line in Seattle.  "When the connection is completed the 2 Line trains will continue north to Lynnwood, doubling  the capacity between downtown and Lynnwood with trains every five minutes." 

The  article concludes, “That ought to build more train ridership which as of April averaged 101,000 daily passengers”.  Yet the 1 Line April average for the four Lynnwood stations totaled 7688 riders, a fraction of the 24,400 to 35,000 Sound Transit had  projected prior to the debut.  

Many is not most were former Snohomish Community Transit 400  bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the four Lynnwood Link stations.  Also, RapidRide E Line continued providing far more access from Aurora Village along Aurora Ave to more stops in Seattle. Thus, doubling the capacity will double the operating cost but not the ridership

The bottom line is neither Sound Transit nor Seattle Times apparently recognize the problem of safely merging 1 Line routes from Angel Lake and and cross-lake 2 Line at ID/C prior to DSTT.  (again, later from Federal Way and Tacoma).  That terminating the  2 Line at ID/C will end the merging problem and allow more Line 1 trains through DSTT to meet any need for future growth. 

 

 

 

Testing Won’t Fix Line 2 Link Problems

Sound Transit has once again decided to delay the East Link extension across the I-90 Bridge.  Revenue service which had been previously scheduled for June 2021, delayed until late 2025, has now been scheduled for January 16, 2026.  Again, with the following proviso:

Achieving that date is heavily dependent on how the next few months go, as the agency conducts robust testing on the first light rail line to cross a floating bridge anywhere in the world.

 

The light rail line/floating bridge issue had resulted in the Legislature Joint Transportation Committee (JTC) commissioning an Independent Review Team.  In 2012, four years after the 2008 IRT had recommended “careful study and testing in the early stages of the project”, Sound Transit signed a $28M (later $36M) contract with Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) to finish the design.  

 

They demonstrated the design at the Transportation Technology Center in Pueblo, Colo.  The tests, conducted during the summer and fall of 2013, were reported to be a success with claims their design passed with “flying colors”.

 

The delay from the June 2021 revenue service date to late 2025 was due to the need to redo the attachments between light rail tracks and bridge structure.   Some of the attachments apparently need additional work.  A  March 7^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article also raised concerns due to the sensitivity of Sound Transit’s “Rail-to-Ground” selection for power system

 

While faulty rail attachments can presumably be repaired, it's unclear how an additional month of testing could resolve the “sensitivity-of-the-power-system” problem. The Starter Line pre-debut testing resulted in limiting train speeds to avoid violating Bellevue Noise Codes.  The additional time and testing may result in lower Line 2 speeds between South Bellevue and International District that could alleviate attachment concerns and power system sensitivity. 

 

One of the reasons “the date is dependent on how the next months go” is presumably due to the need to ensure that Line 2 trains can safely merge with the Line 1 trains prior to going through DSTT.  Sound Transit funded a PSRC study in 2004 that concluded safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains.  How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma.

 

One of the things, “how the next few months go”,  can’t change is the cost of routing Line 2 the 18-mile route from Downtown Redmond Station (DRS) to the International District Station (IDS).  At $30 per vehicle revenue mile, the 18-mile link costs $1080 per vehicle for a DRS to-and-from IDS route.  

 

Providing half the capacity to and from Lynnwood would presumably require 4-car Line 2 trains. Thus, each DRS-to-IDS round trip would add $4,320 to daily operating cost.  Maintaining the current schedule,  trains every 10 minute for 16 hours, requires 96 round trips for a $414,720 weekday cost..

 

The  question being how many boardings will the DRS-to-IDS route attract.  A  May 10^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab column had touted, “What you’ll find at Redmond’s new light rail stations, connecting parks, restaurants, and more, should make the Eastside 2 Lanes now-empty trains more versatile”. Sound Transit had estimated that next winter, when people can ride light rail into Seattle, 5700 riders will use the two stations daily. 

 

The May 22 Sound Transit Board meeting heralded the DRS-to-South Bellevue route's success but nothing about actual boardings. Those won’t be available until Sound Transit releases their monthly Ridership—Ridership report for May and June. 

 

However, a  May 20th visit to  the Marymore Village Garage,(after breakfast at Redmond Pancake HouseI)  found fewer than 50 vehicles in the 1400-stall facility. Thus whatever riders were added at the DRS that day, the Downtown Redmond Extension ridership was a tiny fraction of the 5700 expected when they are able to go into Seattle.  Another demonstration that providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. 

 

It's not clear how many additional commuters will be attracted to Line 2 when it traverses I-90 bridge. Sound Transit plans to require current bus riders transfer to Line 2 for the commute into and out of Seattle.

 

The bottom line is the “next few months of testing” won’t change the fact that Sound Transit should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail trains. That doing so precluded two-way BRT routes with 10 times the capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost. 

At this point, the only way to mitigate the damage is to terminate Line 2 at the existing IDS.  Allow its operation to be set by eastside transit demands and for Line 1 to meet transit needs to Federal Way.

 

Again, no amount of testing will “fix” that need.