Downtown Redmond Light Rail Extension

The Downtown Redmond Light Rail Extension, the Seattle Times heralded with a January 31 Traffic Lab article as, “A pair of new light rail stations the May 10th opening with fan fair”, will be the next Sound Transit ST3 extension to debut. 

The 3.4-mile extension from the Redmond Technology Station(RTS)  to downtown Redmond Transit Center (RTC) adds 6.8 miles to the current 13.2-mile Starter Line round trip to-and-from South Bellevue T/C.   Sound Transit budgets light rail cars at ~$30 per mile. Thus, a 2-car train to-and-from RTS tp RTC will add ~$400 to the   ~$800 current Starter Line round trip cost.   

 

Maintaining the current schedule, trains every 10 minutes from 5:30 a.m.to 9:30 p.m,  requires 96 round trips adds ~$38,400 to the current  ~$76,800 for a total $113,200 weekday cost for Starter Line operation.  The Sound Transits “Ridership—Ridership” March reported 2476 average weekday boardings for the current Starter Line route.  Assuming all the boardings resulted in $3.00 fares for ~$7500 daily fare box revenue, and a fare box recovery of ~10%.  The Downtown Redmond extension costs wlll reduce the farebox recovery for those for current Startline boardings to ~6.6%. 

 

Even those numbers don’t reflect the true fare box recovery since many riders fail to pay the $3.00 fare. For example,  the 4th Quarterly Financial Report for  2024 reported the 29,518,000 riders only paid $38,933,000 fare money or $1.32 per rider.  While it’s not clear how many of those not paying were Starter Line boarders, the actual RTS to South Bellevue P&R farebox recovery was well below Sound Transit supposed”targets”. 

 

The farebox recovery also depends on how many commuters will walk to the downtown RTC or drive to the 1200-stall Marymore P&R for the light rail ride to Bellevue  T/C or South Bellevue P&R.  Commuters currently have access to King County Metro’s RapidRide B.  Its routed from Redmond Transit Center (RTC) through Redmond Technology Station (RTS) to Bellevue Transit Center (BTC), 

 

The RabidRide  route from RTC-to-RTS provides 10 scheduled stops for access with 3 in Redmond and several along 148th Ave.  The improved access wirth added stops requires 15 minutes for the route.  That adds to the 23 minutes from RTS to Bellevue T/C on RapidRide compared to the current 13 minutes on the Starter Line schedule.

 

The bottom line is the Downtown Redmond light rail extension debut later this year will demonstrate whether shorter travel times outweigh the lack of access for commuters into Bellevue.  The 2024 Starter Line ridership results show it didn’t, likely reaffirming the folly of another ST3 extension.  

System Expansion Committee Incompetence

The previous post on this blog concluded the Seattle Times Traffic Lab should not abide Sound Transit getting billions in 75-year bonds to fund the ST3 light rail spine along the I-5 corridor.  This post concludes  the video of the April 10th System Expansion Committee exposes why they shouldn’t increase funding for West Seattle and Ballard portions of ST3 with  Resolution No. R2025-10,

The meeting agenda included increasing the budget to advance West Seattle extension from Preliminary Engineering to Final Design Phase from $270,340,862 to $331,740,863 and the adopted 2025 budget from $94,926,236 to $99,998,561.  The Ballard Link budget was increased from $806,619,999 to $814,019.999 and the adopted 2025 budget from $96,298,561 to 99,998,561.

The money funded Project Management Support Services (PMSS) and Engineering Design Support (Eds) for light rail from West Seattle across 2^nd Duwamish Waterway bridge to SODO and from Ballard though 2^nd tunnel also to SODO.  They were Sound Transit’s attempts to reduce the eventual cost of both extensions and were unanimously approved by the System Expansion Committee.

While the funding for Eds to reduce the costs seemed normal, it wasn’t clear why the PMSS.  However, no one on the committee questioned why the costs had increased nearly $49 million from the 2025 Sound Transit “Adopted Budget and Financial Plan” they ‘d just adopted in March.  

One PMSS function could have been reviewing the justification for implementing the light rail extensions from Ballard and West Seattle to SODO. While they had been included in Prop 1 approval, the ST3 costs had increased from $54 billion in 2016 to $150 billion, surely merited some review.

The 2024 debut of the Starter Line and Lynnwood extension demonstrated another ST3 problem: access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. 70,000 residents live within a mile of Starter Line stations and 80,000 within a mile of the Lynnwood Link stations.  Yet, in March only 1238 average inbound and outbound riders rode Starter Line and 6643 riders used Lynnwood stations for access to light rail.  Most of the Lynnwood boarders were former bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the stations. 

Thus, any PMSS spending should consider whether riders added by light rail from Ballard to SODO or Alaska Junction in West Seattle to SODO would justify the cost of boring a second tunnel or second Duwamish Waterway bridge.   Especially since both areas already have excellent service from RapidRide, or other King or Snohomish County bus routes.  Bus routes have the advantage of having far more stops for access on the route into Seattle with far more convenient stops in the city.

The bottom line is the increasing cost of  Ballard and West Seattle light rail to SODO and the lack of Lynnwood Link and Starter Line riders justify the need for a PMSS study of those ST3 projects that could really cut costs. The April 10th System Expansion Committee approval of Resolution No. R2025-10 without it typifies their incompetence.

Seattle Times Continues Enabling ST3 Debacle

The April 9^th Seattle Times article “Olympia may offer lifeline for Sound Transit” is the latest example of the paper’s Traffic Lab approach to the ST3 debacle.  It purports their Traffic Lab to be the paper’s product that “explores how we get around and how billions of dollars in public money are spent.” 

Yet, more than 8 years before, an October 19^th, 2016, Seattle Times editorial made the following recommendation:

Reject Sound Transit 3 and demand a better plan

Apparently concerned about giving Sound Transit authority to spend $54 billion funding ST3 from 2017 to 2041 suggesting:

Voters in the Puget Sound region should say no to Sound Transit 3 and ask Sound Transit to provide a more reasonable plan with more accountability.

Yet they’ve never objected to Sound Transit using ST3 approval in 2016 to spend $54B between 2017 to 2041 to authorize spending $150B between 2017 and 2046 and leave the area $18B in debt with payments extending to 2061.  Now they’re abiding Sound Transit's response to “a looming cash flow crunch” to ask the legislature authority to issue 75-year maturity bonds.

All for completing the ST3 extensions voters approved in 2016 which Sound Transit has proclaimed, “the country’s largest transit system expansion”.  The problem, plans to spend money for light rail to “reach promised destinations West Seattle, Ballard, and Everett”, will do absolutely nothing to reduce area’s roadway congestion.  

4 car light rail trains lack the capacity needed to accommodate commuters unable or willing to drive to reduce peak-hour multilane congestion for those who choose to drive. And all the ST3 extensions cost too much to operate off peak. Light rail should’ve never been extended beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac.  

Light rail trains lack the stations needed for access to transit and stops needed for convenient egress and access in Seattle.  Added bus routes along the I-5 corridor from Everett to Tacoma and across the I-90 bridge could have accommodated the transit growth needed.  Instead, Sound Transit uses ST3 extensions to replace the bus routes, reducing transit capacity, and nothing to reduce congestion.

Sound Transits 2024 Starter Line and Lynnwood debuts demonstrated another ST3 extension problem, providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. 70.000 residents live within a mile of Starter Line stations.  Yet the 2438 weekday boardings for the 8 stations in March indicated only 1238 average inbound and outbound riders, a fraction of the 4000 to 5700 predicted. 

Sound Transit made a similar claim that 80,000 residents living within a mile of one of the Lynnwood extensions would attract 24,000 to 35,000 riders. Yet, in March, only 6643 commuters boarded at one of the extension's 4 stations. And most of those boarders were former bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the stations. 

The lack of Starter Line and Lynnwood Link riders should be a warning the Ballard and West Seattle to SODO ridership won't justify the cost of boring a second tunnel or second Duwamish Waterway bridge.

A previous post detailed why the principal benefit of the June 25^th closure is that it demonstrates the lack of riders attracted by the ST3 extensions. That reducing congestion into Seattle requires far more RapidRide, KCM, CT400 and ST500 buses.. 

The bottom line is Sound Transit continues to spend whatever is required to provide light rail track to “promised destinations" despite ample evidence they won’t reduce congestion.  The April 9th Seattle Times Traffic Lab abiding they get more billions in 75 year bonds continues enabling the ST3 debacle.

July 25th Closure Biggest Benefit

The April 3^rd Traffic Lab article “State shifts plan on Ship Canal Bridge project” details plans to use the results for 20% of the bridge to make a more accurate estimate for repairing the rest.  That “in the end we will have a safe, reliable bridge years to come”. 

Apparently willing to accept the July 25^th four-week closure and “Many of the quarter-million-daily car trips on I-5 cancelled, detoured or delayed during summer work”.  Southbound I-5 express lanes closed and complete I-5 closure from I-90 to University District during July 26-27 and August 23-24 weekends. That “fixing 900 feet this year avoids depleting near-term budgets”.

Yet very few details about how they intend to accommodate all those car trips with 2 northbound I-5 GP lanes and southbound I-5 express lanes closed for demonstration.   Forcing southbound I-5 express lane vehicles to use GP lanes could double travel times for the 15-mile Lynnwood-to- Seattle morning commute.   

Sound Transit’s light rail route from Lynnwood to Westlake will provide part of the capacity needed.   This year’s closure precedes any transit capacity benefits from routing Line 2 light rail trains from Bellevue to Lynnwood.  Sound Transit’s decision to use light rail trains to replace bus routes minimizes any potential light rail benefits.

The bottom line is the biggest benefit of the July 25 closure is it demonstrates the lack of light rail train ridership along spine requires a need to dramatically increase bus capacity into Seattle.  Sound Transit, King County Metro, and Snohomish Community Transit need to add ST500 routes, RapidRide E routes and CT 400 bus routes along the entire corridor into Seattle.