Why Dow Constantine for ST CEO

The March 28th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article, Constantine confirmed Sound Transit chief Executive picked as new Sound Transit Leader” is hardly a surprise.  It’s not that his tenure as Sound Transit Board member and Chair has demonstrated any competence regarding public transit.  The more likely reason being those making the selection recognized Constantine would continue to pursue the Board’s “Fantasy Lind” approach to public transit.

 

That Constantine as CEO will continue abetting a decade of transit board failure to understand what constitutes effective public transit. That public transit’s goal should be to provide transit for those unable or unwilling to drive in sufficient numbers to reduce congestion for those that do drive. Any potential CEO with a modicum of transit system competence would recognize 4-car light rail trains can’t accommodate enough transit riders to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak.

 

Neither the Board nor Constantine recognize additional bus routes along restricted access lanes into Seattle could provide the capacity needed for peak hour congestion and flexibility to meet off-peak congestion operating costs.  That money spent extending light rail could have been spent adding parking with access to bus stations or local routes from where commuters live to bus stations.

 

Again, any potential CEO with a modicum of transit system competence would recognize Sound Transit should not have extended light rail beyond UW Stadium across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac Airport.  At this point limiting damage require ending light rail spine to Everett and Tacoma.  Yet Constantine was selected because of his support for the spine 

 

Presumably, continuing with Sound Transit’s last Agency Progress Report 126.8 “full time monthly employees” were working on the Everett extension despite ridership for both the Northgate and Lynnwood extensions that was a fraction of projections.  Most of whom were bus riders forced to transfer from bus routes to light rail, doing nothing to reduce I-5 congestion into Seattle.

 

The Everett extension expenditures, a small part of the 1572 positions and $957.5 million budgeted for staffing in Sound Transits 2025 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan that doesn’t include funding for those driving or maintaining their light rail cars or buses,   

 

Neither Constantine nor the Board recognize the 2024 Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debut ridership results also debunked their “field of dreams approach” that extending light rail assures ridership.  Thus, not only should they not extend to Everett.  They should recognize that neither the Ballard to SODO or West Seattle to SODO light rail extension will attack the riders needed to justify the cost of creating the tracks and operating the trains.

 

The bottom line a competent transit system CEO would recognize a light rail spine for 4-car trains doesn’t have the capacity needed to reduce freeway congestion into Seattle.  That using light rail trains to replace bus routes reduces transit capacity along the entire route.  That having access to light rail doesn’t mean sufficient riders to justify spending billions boring a second tunnel under Seattle or second Duwamish Waterway Bridge,

 

That Constantine’s appointment assures Sound Transit continuing the “country’s largest transit system expansion” that doesn’t reduce roadway congestion.  That the area's taxpayers are getting very little from the $700 they currently pay for Sound Transit, a number Constantines appointment will increase.  The "likely" lack of riders with the Downtown Redmond extension in May and the results of Sound Transit continuing to use Line 2 trains for half the routes to Lynnwood this winter will be the next to validate the concerns.

 

i-2022 Unconstitutional Benefits??

The March 22, Seattle Times headline “Washington’s natural gas initiative is unconstitutional, judge determines” heralds the judges claim “it makes it hard to say with any precision what the general topic is”.   Yet the  I-2022  voters approved included the following description.

 Every gas company or large combination utility shall provide natural gas to all persons and corporations in their service area even if other energy sources may be available

Thus, it would seem pretty “precise” as to the “initiative’s general topic” and not “an attempt to mislead voters with language that was confusing, harmful, and unconstitutional”.

 

That “it was opposed by those hoping to reduce Washington’s planet warming green- house gas emissions.”  Yet, prior to the Climate Commitment Acts passage in 2021 Washington’s CO2 made up only 1.56% of the country’s 11.19% of planets.  Thus, any climate benefits from rejecting the I-2022  was limited to reducing Washington’s 0.17456% of  global CO2 emissions. 

 

Even those benefits from no longer allowing natural gas in homes are further limited by Washington residential emissions being only 6.2 million metric tons (MMT) of the 74.4 MMT state total in 2022. Thus. any benefit from not allowing natural gas in future homes will do little to reduce Washington's “green-house” gas emissions.

 

The bottom line is the March 22nd article is another example of the Seattle Times abetting Washington residents being forced to pay so much for so little.

 

 

Sound Transit’s Real Complexity Problem

The March 7^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Report: Light rail too complex for its own good” details “operating problems associated with power problems, weak governance, inefficient use of maintenance crews, and a lack of crossover rail switches to avoid blockage”.  The problem apparently is due to the sensitivity of Sound Transit’s “Rail-to-Ground” selection for power system .  Proposed recommendations would allow trains to bypass problems and maintain Sound Transit’s promised four-minute-intervals in 2026.

This post opines the “Complexity” resulting from Sound Transit’s decision to route Line 2 trains through DSTT to Lynnwood and beyond dwarfs the power system problem.  Sound Transit currently routes Line 1 trains every 8 minutes between Angle Lake and Lynnwood. They could have “maintained the frequency of trains every four minutes that’s promised in 2026” by doubling the number of Line 1 trains. 

Instead, Sound Transit chose to provide additional trains to Lynnwood by routing Line 2 from Redmond via International District/CID station through DSTT and maintain current 8-minute intervals to Angle Lake and presumably to Federal Way when it debuts in 2026.

 The problem becomes how do they assure that Line 2 routes from Redmond arrive at International District/CID both 4 minutes before and after Line 1 routes from Angel Lake and later Federal Way?  Line 1 schedules show 36 minutes from International District/CID to and from Angle Lake.  The extension to Federal Way will add unknown minutes in both directions.

The current Line 2 schedule shows 17 minutes from Redmond Technology Center to South Bellevue T/C.  The extensions to Downtown Redmond and across I-90 bridge will add unknown time to the Line 2 route from International District/CID to and from Downtown Redmond.  Assuring the Line 1 and Line 2 trains arrive at the International District/CID 4 minutes apart constitutes a real Complexity problem.

It all could have been avoided if Sound Transit had simply doubled the Line 1 trains and terminated Line 2 at International District/CID.  Line 1 riders from South Seattle would’ve benefitted from additional capacity and Line 2 riders from service that matched east side demand.  

Sound Transit Off-Ramps

The February 27^th Sound Transit Board, Business Items agenda authorized the chief executive “to acquire certain real property interests…..and reimburse eligible relocation and reestablishment expenses incurred by affected owners and tenants as necessary” for West Seattle and Ballard Link extension projects.  The resulting discussion resulted in the board receiving assurance that off-ramps existed to terminate extensions because of cost concerns.  

It seems like a rather belated concern over costs since the board has approved spending $150 billion on the 2016 Prop 1 ST3 voters approved in 2016 for $54 billion. The concern over costs didn’t prevent the board from increasing the West Seattle Link Extension $3,998,950 cost in its 2025 Proposed Budget & Financial Plan to more than $7,100,000. The meeting provided potential cost savings in designing and constructing the bridge, but little to defray the huge increase.

The Board also failed to consider that a Link extension off-ramp should be a recognition that 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity needed to attract the number of commuters needed to reduce peak-hour multilane roadway congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.  Another off-ramp should be recognition that using light rail “spine” to replace bus routes reduces transit capacity into the city and doesn’t reduce freeway congestion. Especially light rail extensions to Everett and Tacoma.

The 2024 Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debut ridership should have suggested additional reason for off-ramp; providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure riders.  Claims that “70,000 residents living within a mile of Starter Line stations will change how Eastsiders think about getting around” were debunked by January ridership reports of 3004 boardings.  Assuming each rider had inbound and return boarding only 1502 riders used Starter Line for their commute.

Sound Transit made a similar claim that 80,000 residents living within a mile of one of the Lynnwood extension stations would attract 24,000 to 35,000 riders. Yet, in January, only 6259 commuters boarded at one of the extension's 4 stations. Most of those boarders were former bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the stations.  

The potential lack of new transit riders should be an off-ramp for both the Ballard and West Seattle light rail extensions. Transit riders in areas served by both extensions currently have better access to bus routes into Seattle and more convenient stops in city. Thus, the lack of riders wanting to transfer from bus routes to light rail for the commute from Ballard and Alaska Junction in West Seattle to SODO won’t justify spending $13 billion on a 2^nd tunnel or $7 billion on a 2^nd Duwamish Waterway Bridge. 

That the ten to fifteen years of construction disruption to transportation in both areas should be another “off-ramp”.  That the cost of Sound Transit providing transit with 4-car light rail trains dwarfs that of a KCM bus, especially during off peak operation.  

The bottom line is Sound Transit off ramps should go way beyond just the cost of implementing the light rail extension. The May 10^th debut of the Downtown Redmond Link and next winter’s Line 2 extension through DSTT to Lynnwood will “likely” reaffirm the concern.