Lynnwood Link Ridership??

The Sound Transit Board had its September 26^th meeting.  I finally recognized the video of this meeting as well as all those in September was available on YouTube rather than Livestream.  The meeting agenda's, Reports to the Board, "Sound Transit Recent Accomplishments and Lookahead" was of particular interest 

The assumption being “Recent Accomplishments” would include riders added by the four Lynnwood Link extension stations.  Previous posts had predicted the Line 1 wouldn’t have the capacity to accommodate Sound Transit’s predicted 25,300 to 34,200 boarders.  Their concerns over “clogging” resulted in adding a Sounder route from Everett, continuing ST510 from Everett, and a new ST515 route from Lynnwood all into Seattle.

Other posts have questioned Sound Transit’s boarder predictions. Their July 2024 Ridership data reported riders added at the stations at Northgate, Roosevelt, and University totaled 14,741, a fraction of Sound Transit's 41,000-49,000 Northgate Link pre debut predictions.  Posts had also predicted the need to transfer to and from Lynnwood Link and the more convenient egress and access in Seattle would dissuade some of the Commuter Transit 400 riders from using transit.

Thus, the assumption was,“Recent Accomplishments”, would include both Lynnwood Link boardings and more recent system wide riderships. Another earlier post detailed Lynnwood Link operations could add up to more than $300,000 in Line 1 operating costs.  So, ridership data could provide the cost per boarding for the Link in comparison to the data in the Quarterly Financial Report Q1/24.

However, rather than ridership results, Sound Transit’s Recent Accomplishments presentation was limited to detailing the system expansion.  That there had been “unprecedented system growth, from 25 to 43 total stations, a 76% increase, and 17 more miles of track, 60% further". That, as a result 173,000 more people were now living within one mile of a Link station, with 68,000 within a mile of the 4 new Line 1 Lynnwood stations. 

The presentation neglected to mention the KCM RapidRide E Line from Aurora Village with multiple stops for access along Aurora Ave into Seattle. Instead, claiming they’ve “enhanced access to opportunity, jobs, recreation, housing, or education”.  Claiming any growth in the area is attributable to light rail extensions. Claims record-breaking ridership and I-Line regularly exceeding 100,000 daily riders are belied by the July 2024 Link’s 87,856 average boardings a day, nearly 3000 fewer than the July 2023 Link’s 90,670. 

Yet the only Lynnwood ridership report was that “71,000 rode the system just on opening weekend” heralding it as  "the average weekday ridership of the entire one line last December". Denigrating Line 1 December ridership, 73,925 in the July report, seems an odd way to promote Line 1.

The bottom line is that prior to the debut, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab spent the week heralding the Lynnwood Link as "new transit era" and how all the riders could and would benefit.  It’s now been nearly a month since its debut and they still haven't told us how many of Sound Transit's predicted 25,300 to 34,200 boarders did so.

  

Seattle Times Climate Act “Questions”

The September 23^rd Seattle Times edition exemplifies the paper abiding the state’s approach to climate concerns.  The frontpage article details “Why a Skagit County town is fighting battery storage project”.  The caption under the picture “it’s up to the Energy Facility Sitting Evaluation Council” raises all sorts of questions.  

First, who or what created the EFSEC and gave it the authority to make the decision?  Why did Tanaska, an Omaha, Nebraska company, select Sedro-Woolley for a battery storage facility? Where did they get the $250 million and how will they be repaid for the investment?  

The usual rational for battery storage is to store wind turbine or solar powered energy for when there’s no wind or sun. Yet Goldeneye would get the “power from the Sedro-Woodley Substation just across the creek.” Presumably very little of it “renewable” and who would pay.  

The area’s concerns about the potential environmental problems are valid.  It’s also unlikely Sedro-Woolley residents get much of their power from wind turbines or solar panels.  Thus, assuring “100,000 homes would have 8 hours of power”, is of dubious benefit for residents. 

Even more questionable was the paper’s Opinion page, Pro & Con I-2117 letters.  Why didn’t the “Pro-side” detail the Climate Commitment Act’s limited benefits?  Washington’s CO2 emissions make up only 1.56% of the countries.  That the United States make up 11.2% of the worlds. Thus, any benefits from reducing emissions are limited to reducing the states 0.117% of the total. Not worth much when compared to China’s 30% with plans to add 25 % more by 2030.  

Also why did paper allow the flat out lies in “Con-Side”?  While I-2117 passage won’t “guarantee lower costs” the reduction in costs to providers will reduce prices for consumers to remain competitive.  That rejecting I-2117 would require they pass those costs on to remain in business.  With no limit to how high the fees.

That CO2 is not a pollutant, its emissions are not “toxic” or cause more adults and kids to suffer from asthma and illness.  The claim that not limiting them would end “Washington as a beautiful place to live and do business” is a flat out lie. Any reduction from rejecting I-2117 would be dwarfed by the CO2 coming by jet-stream from China.

All those purportedly supporting rejecting I-2117 managed to survive prior to the Climate Commitment Act.  All those waiting to benefit are a clear indication the fees will likely increase to fund them.

Why West Seattle Light Rail?

The Seattle Times Sept. 18^th Traffic Lab article, “West Seattle’s light rail estimate soars past $6 billion” exemplifies the paper’s support for Sound Transit’s approach to the area’s transportation problems.  Abetting claims the latest estimate “somewhere between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion” are no reason to panic, but a good reason to forge ahead”.

What the voters approved in 2016, $2.3 billion, has apparently gotten Terri Mestas, the deputy CEO Megaproject deliverer's approval, to spend the additional funds.  That Sound Transit considers the need for drastic reductions as premature. Mestas said “her team still has a long runway to cope with West Seattle cost". The article reports “an advisory panel of outside experts gave high marks for management reorganization, and said Sound Transit now has the best talent available”.

What she and her team (and outside experts) apparently won't consider is whether there’s any real need for light rail from Alaska Junction to Sodo. King County Metro already provides Rapid Ride C and Rapid Ride H, 24-hour service to the entire area.  During peak commute Rapid Ride C buses run every 15 minutes from Westwood Village, Fauntleroy Ferry to Alaska Junction, down Avalon Way, across West Seattle Bridge to Highway 99, 3^rd Ave in Seattle, and Westlake Ave to South Lake Union.  Schedules typically show 20 minutes from Alaska Junction to 3^rd Ave & Seneca.  Late night and early morning intervals stretch from 20 minutes to hourly.  

Rapid Ride H runs on a similar schedule from Burien T/C to White Center along Delridge Way to West Seattle Bridge to Highway 99 and 3^rd Ave, taking 18 minutes from Myrtle St on Delridge to Madison St on 3^rd Ave.  KCM also provides Route 21 along 35^th Ave in West Seattle, again down Avalon Way, across bridge to Sodo and 1^st Ave into Seattle.  It’s routed from 4:40 am to 12:42 am, again on similar intervals. 

All three routes provide multiple stops for access in West Seattle and egress on 3^rdAve in Seattle and beyond.  Yet access to West Seattle light rail is limited to stations at Alaska Junction, Avalon, and Delridge and egress at Sodo.  There, commuters will need to transfer to Line 1, sharing its capacity into and out of the CID station. A dubious option at best as any potential transit time savings will be offset by the need to transfer

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab is the Seattle Times project that “comments on how transportation funds are spent”.  Yet the Sept 18^th article abets Sound Transit spending up to $7,100 million, presumably on the assumption thousands of West Seattle area commuters will choose light rail rather than bus routes into and out of Seattle.

The Traffic Lab and the new Megaproject delivery hire need to consider “Does West Seattle need Light Rail?”.

Lynnwood Link’s Community Transit Losers

The previous post questioned how Sound Transit could limit Lynnwood Link riders to avoid current Line 1 Link riders losing access during peak commute onto Seattle. I looked forward to seeing the video of the Sept 12 System Expansion Committee’s response to the Links Aug. 30th debut.   As of today, the 17^th it still hadn’t been “livestreamed”.  

My guess is they finally recognized the need to limit Lynnwood ridership. A problem the Community Transit exacerbated with their Sept 14^th plan to use the Link to replace all the 400 routes into and out of Seattle.   Commuters from Stanwood, Marysville, Lake Stevens, Mukilteo, Edmonds, Mill Creek and others all lost access to routes directly into and out of Seattle. 

While ridership for the 400 individual routes was limited (unavailable?) their combined ridership during peak commute depleted if not exhausted Line 1 capacity from Northgate and beyond to Westlake. Commuters forced to transfer to and from Line 1 trains also lost access to the far more convenient and far less crowded bus stops for egress and access in the city than the DSTT. (They add to the 25,518 July riders arriving and 10,699 departing at Westlake.) It's also not clear how those transferring from buses to Line 1 trains will pay the fares to Community Transit and Sound Transit. 

Community Transit continues to route ST510 every 15 minutes during peak commute from Everett into and out of Seattle.  It bypasses Lynnwood with stop at Mountlake Terrace and multiple stops on 5^th Ave on the way in and 4^th Ave on the return.  They’ve initiated ST515 from Lynnwood that also stops at Mountlake Terrace with routes every 10 minutes during peak commute with the same multiple stops in Seattle. However, they are both a “drop-in-the bucket” when it comes to resolving Line 1 problems.

The bottom line is the Community Transit decision to replace 400 bus routes into and out of Seattle exacerbates the Line 1's lack-of-capacity problem. That former 400 bus riders and 4-car trains every 10 minutes could essentially end access for current Line 1 peak hour commuters.  They need to delay ending 400 routes until they have trains every 4 minutes.  Replacing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and adds to their 4-car light rail trains inability to reduce peak hour multilane freeway congestion, costs too much to operate off peak and does nothing to reduce GP travel times. 

Their commuters deserve something better 

Sound Transit’s Lynnwood Capacity Problem

Sound Transit recently began implementing the $3.00 fare for all riders from 19 to 64 presumably hoping to increase the farebox recovery of operating costs.  Higher light rail train operating costs led to the initial goal for fares to provide 40% of operating costs. They later reduced the goal to a minimum of 17% with a 22% target and set adult fares ranging from $2.25 to $3.50 based on distance traveled. 

A December 15, 2023, Sound Transit News release reported, “46% of Link passengers pay adult fares with the remainder using employer-funded passes or reduced fare products.  Youth 18 and under ride free”.  Yet the latest available Quarterly Financial Report for Q1/2024 details that 6,036 thousand riders paid $6,993 thousand in fares, or $1.109 in fares per rider. 

The report included an average $11.37 cost per rider for a 9.75% farebox recovery, slightly more than half the minimum 17% recovery.  Presumably the employer-funded fares provided the required fares for the trip. Thus, most of the 46% adults riding apparently didn’t pay fares.  The idea that the July average 6767 Capitol Hill daily boarders who rode to Westlake or all those along the route from Sodo to CID who didn’t pay the $2.25 would somehow pay the new $3.00 fares seems “dubious” at best.

The 8,5-mile Lynnwood Link extension exacerbates the cost part of the farebox-recovery problem, Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30.00 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, the 8.5-mile extension adds $2040 for each 4-car train’s round trip from UW stadium. Sound Transit’s current Line 1 schedule shows trains every 10 minutes from 5:07 am to 8:47 pm, 12-minute intervals to 10:23, 15 until12:08 and a final train at 12:50 am. The resulting 107 trips add $218,280 to Line 1 daily operating costs. 

Providing 22% of the $218,280 cost with $3.00 tolls will require 16,000 daily boardings, about half  Sound Transit’s 25,300 to 34,200 predicted riders.  The July Northgate ridership averaged 14,721, a third of Sound Transit’s pre-debut 41,000 to 49,000 predictions.  

Presumably the 16,000 Lynnwood and 14,721 Northgate Link riders are all into Seattle, so 30,721 will reach the UW Stadium.  If 75% do so during the 3-hour peak morning commute, 7680 riders will do so each hour, 

Sound Transit assumes each 74-seat car can accommodate 150 riders or 600 riders on each 4-car light rail train.  With 10 minute intervals between trains, capacity is limited to 3600 riders per hour, less than half the 7680 rider needed if the number of Lynnwood boarders paying $3.00 fares were sufficient to provide 22% of the Link’s operating costs.  The University of Washington Stadium’s daily July 4030 riders just adds to the problem at Capitol Hill, particularly gauling for those now forced to pay $3.00 fares.

Community Transit attempts to reduce “crowding” by adding an ST515 route from Lynnwood into Seattle with stops at Montlake Terrace, presumably keeping the fares. A high capacity bus can accommodate 115 riders, so an ST515 route every 10 minutes could accommodate 690 riders, far from what’s needed to end “crowding” at UW station.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit’s projections for 25,300 to 35,200 additional Lynnwood Link riders dwarfs Line 1 peak hour capacity into Seattle.  Thus, unless actual riders added during peak commute are limited to a  fraction of projections, UW Station and Capitol Hill riders will lose access to Line 1 trains.  

It’s not clear how Sound Transit will limit Lynnwood Link peak-hour access, but the costs of providing 107 daily light rail trains to and from Northgate will dwarf any fares they pay.