I-5 Corridor Transit Questions the Traffic Lab Ignores,

The August 28^th Traffic Lab article “Why light rail chose I-5 over Aurora” ignores the real question for I-5 corridor public transit.  Why didn’t Sound Transit route the Northgate extension directly into Seattle rather than through a tunnel to UW station and University Link?

Doing so would have eliminated two stops near UW and a stop at Capitol Hill.  Routing the Northgate extension directly into Seattle would have added transit capacity into the city, avoiding Northgate Link riders reducing commuter access to transit on University Link access.  (It’s also too late to question why Sound Transit didn’t add that capacity at a fraction of the cost of light rail extensions by adding bus routes along I-5 on restricted access lanes)

The Lynnwood extension riders would have increased the lost access no matter which route Sound Transit selected. Even more important is why did Sound Transit even extend light rail to Lynnwood? Rapid Ride E already provided 24-hour service with routes every 4 to 20 minutes, depending on time of day.  They typically took around 50 minutes from Aurora T/C to and from downtown Seattle.  The route provides access at multiple stops every 5 streets along route into and out of Seattle, with off-peak operating costing a fraction of  4-car light rail trains.

The Traffic Lab could also question why Snohomish Community Transit is using the Lynnwood link to replace all SCT’s 400 routes into Seattle.  As with the Northgate Link, using light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity into the city. The SCT buses are all routed during the peak commute hours, reducing access for current Line 1 riders. Any potential transit times saved will be offset by the hassle associated with transferring to light rail for the commute into Seattle, lack of options for egress in Seattle other than DSTT, and similar hassles for the return trip. It's also not clear how those riders will pay Sound Transit fares.

Another I-5 corridor question Traffic Lab has never asked Sound Transit, “Why are you routing East Link trains beyond CID to Northgate and beyond to Lynnwood?”.  Routing it through the DSST halves the number of Line 1 trains.  Those wishing to go beyond CID north or south could transfer there to existing Line 1 trains.  Also routing the East Link trains to Lynnwood will double the cost of off-peak operation with capacity that far exceeds ridership.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab apparently doesn’t recognize 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to attract the number of vehicles needed to reduce multi-lane roadway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. That despite a week of their heralding the Lynnwood Link debut, “a new era in transportation” their expectations about 50,000 people a day are expected to board or exit a train in the four new stations” are “dubious” at best. 

The question remains whether Traffic Lab will report on actual added Lynnwood ridership.  They’ve never reported riders added by Northgate Link were far short of the 42,000-49,000, and “Transit Transformed” they’d predicted prior to its October 2021 debut. 

Again, it’s a question the Traffic Lab should ask and report.

 

Lynnwood Link Costs

The previous post detailed the Traffic Lab didn’t "get it" that the ST/SCT plan to use the $3.3 billion Lynnwood extension to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into Seattle and do nothing to reduce I-5 GP congestion.  This post details how much that service, public transit along I-5 corridor into Seattle, will add to the cost. 

 Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30.00 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, the 8.5 mile extension adds $510 for each car’s round trip. Sound Transit’s current Lynnwood plans call for 3 or 4-car trains every 8 minutes for 20 hours a day.  The resulting 150 round trips of 3 or 4 car trains, 450 to 600 car trips, will add $229,500 to $306,000 daily to Line 1 link operating costs: $11,445 and $15,300 per hour, double the current costs from Northgate into Seattle.

 

The other cost is the loss access for current Line 1 riders. Assuming each light rail train car can accommodate 150 riders, 3 and 4 trains every 8 minutes can accommodate 3375 to 4500 riders an hour.  Sound Transit claims the Lynnwood-to-Northgate extension will add 25,300 to 34,200 daily boardings.  If 80% did so during the 6-hour peak commute, the extension would add 3373 to 4560 riders per hour, essentially ending Line 1 riders' access during peak commute.

The Sound Transit/Snohomish Community Transit response to the “crowding” is to implement the 515 bus route between Lynnwood and Seattle.  While they haven’t released a schedule, a bus every ten minutes could only accommodate ~600 commuters an hour, doing little to reduce  Line 1 “crowding”.  The 14 hours of off-peak operation will still add $160,230 to $214,200 to daily operation costs with few riders to pay fares.

 

The bottom line is the Lynnwood extension will double the cost of public transit along I-5 corridor into Seattle. Again, using it to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce I-5 GP lane congestion.  Current Line 1 riders are fortunate the Lynnwood debut, despite recent Traffic Lab claims it will be a "magnet" for growth near stations, will “likely” demonstrate ridership far less than Sound Transit projections and far less fare revenue.  

That subsequent plans to route  Line 2 trains to Lynnwood will double the train frequency and end potential crowding, but also double the operating costs, an especially heavy burden during off peak operation.

 

Look forward to seeing the actual Lynnwood ridership results, if and when Sound Transit releases them. Something they still haven”t done since the last quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports were released for Q1/2021.

 

 

Traffic Lab Still Doesn’t Get It

The previous post detailed why Smarter Transit was “too little too late” with Its August 8th opinion letter “Demanding greater accountability, transparency before ST3 expands”.  This post details why the Traffic Tab doesn’t recognize the Northgate-to-Lynnwood extension August 30^th debut “won’t fix what ails adjacent I-5”.

What ails I-5 is too many cars or too few lanes. While the Northgate-to-Lynnwood extension adds another “traffic lane”, its capacity is limited because light rail trains are restricted to 4-cars. That safe operation requires 4 minutes between trains. Assuming each car can accommodate 150 riders, light rail spine capacity is limited to 9000 riders per hour. (With or without the Line 2 trains)

 

Thus, the August 15^th Traffic Lab question, “How much can light rail help?” doesn’t “get it”.  Accommodating the Sound Transit’s 2024 service plan predicted “25,300 to 34,200 daily boardings” would end access for Northgate-to-Westlake riders for much of the day. Especially since initial operation will be limited to trains every 8 minute or half that capacity. (That's about half the 67,000 riders former Sound Transit CEO Rogoff had predicted in a 2017 FHA Lynnwood extension grant application) Even worse, many if not most are not new transit riders but Snohomish Community Transit (SCT) riders currently using the Lynnwood extension:

Commuter routes to Northgate and Seattle will be eliminated and replaced with new express and local routes that connect to light rail.

Thus, on Sept. 15th, SCT will force all 400 series riders to transfer to and from the Lynnwood extension for the commute into and out of Seattle. (It’s not clear how the bus riders transferring to and from light rail will pay the fares.) Reducing bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity and nothing to reduce I-5 GP lane congestion into the city.  

The SCT 400 series riders will reduce access for the Northgate-to-Westlake commuters, though many will be dissuaded by the need to transfer and the loss of more convenient stops for egress and access along 3^rd Ave than at the Westlake Station with everyone else.

 

Again, whatever riders the Lynnwood extension does attract will reduce access for current Line 1 riders.  The SCT response is a new 515 route from Lynnwood City Center Station into and out of Seattle, presumably during peak commute hours.  (They also intend to continue routing 510 from Everett with multiple stops along I-5 and 7th and 5th Ave in Seattle for egress and access for the return during peak commute hours.)  

 

Thus, many Lynnwood commuters will likely opt to ride 515 into and out of Seattle rather than light rail during the peak commute.  However, it’s not clear how they intend to schedule 515 to prevent Lynnwood commuters from “clogging” Line 1.

 

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab still doesn’t “get it” that the ST/SCT plan to use the Lynnwood extension to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into Seattle, do nothing to reduce I-5 GP congestion, and results in operating cost during off-peak operation that will dwarf any fare box revenue riders pay.  Even more important, it's a precursor of results from future light rail spine extension along I-5 and across I-90 bridge.

Smarter Transit, too Little too Late.

The 8/08/24 Seattle Times Opinion page letter, “Demand greater accountability, transparency before ST3 expands” details another belated attempt to mitigate the Sound Transit debacle.  It’s something this blog has been attempting to do since 2012.  At this point the Smarter Transit approach reflects a failure to recognize “that horse has already left the barn”. 

The “horse”, effective transit, “left the barn” for east side commuters when the WSDOT allowed Sound Transit to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail.  Likely in exchange for not implementing BRT on SR520 that would reduce WSDOT toll revenue. That confiscation precluded a transit “horse”, two-way bus only BRT routes on center roadway. It could have provided 10 times the capacity of 4-car light rail trains, ten years sooner, at I/10^th the cost.  

Sound Transit exacerbated the lack-of-capacity problem by choosing to use it to replace cross lake bus routes and routing it through DSTT, halving Central Link trains to SeaTac.  It’s something Sound Transit can continue to do without breaking another inch of ground. However, the delay due to the need to redo the rail attachments has delayed demonstrating that debacle..

The ”horse left the barn” for SR520 commuters from both sides of the lake when a 2013 Sound Transit “Master Implementation Agreement (MIA)” with Univesity of Washington included the following: 

Sound Transit shall aggressively pursue funding to extend the Light Rail Transit System beyond University property toward Northgate as expeditiously as possible

 

Thus, Sound Transit agreed to not implement a T/C at University Station that would have provided an interface between SR520 and Central Link.  Commuters from both sides of the lake would have benefited.  It also ended plans for a 2nd Montlake Cut Bridge that would have facilitated access for SR520 commuters to a UW T/C and Central Link.

The MIA result was a $2.8 billion, 4.8-mile tunnel extension to Northgate. It doubled the cost of the ride from UW to Westlake but nothing to increase transit capacity. Rather than add parking for access for additional commuters they used the extension to replace bus routes into Seattle. Reducing access for University Link commuters, transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce I-5 GP lane congestion.  

Commuters were forced to transfer to and from light rail at Northgate and use DSTT stations rather than more convenient stops on 3^rd Ave for egress and access downtown. Yet, when it debuted, Oct 2^nd, 2021, the Seattle Times abided Sound Transit not releasing data "likely" showing ridership was far less than the 41,000-49,000 they’d predicted

The bottom line is the “horse left the barn” when the Seattle Times abetted Sound Transit extending light rail across the bridge on I-90 and beyond UW and SeaTac on I-5.  They refused to include an outside audit of Sound Transit as one of ten top legislative actions. The “likely” result would have been recognition 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to accommodate the riders needed to reduce peak hour congestion on I-90 and I-5 and cost too much to operate off peak. 

The. Lynnwood Link debut this fall will again “likely” demonstrate the folly of the light rail spine. While Smarter Transit may be able to stop future extensions the “horse that's already left the barn” must be “fed.”  That operating costs for light rail trains on the existing extensions across I-90 Bridge and from Lynnwood to Federal Way will inevitably dwarf any fare box revenues.  

A burden for tax payers for far into the future if they win but a fraction of what the costs will be if they fail..

   

  

My Blog Lives On

Another attempt in more than a decade of using Voters’ Pamphlet to inform voters what they won’t read or hear elsewhere has ended adding thousands more to the current 260,000 views of this blog. What began as an attempt to prevent Sound Transit from confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway for East Link light rail has evolved into attempts to expose the folly of their “light rail spine”.  The result of a Sound Transit Board made up well-meaning elected officials who don’t understand what constitutes effective public transit. 

Other posts have detailed how the WSDOT could reduce I-405 travel times for all riders by limiting HOT to one HOV lane. That it's not the data center power needs that's the Climate Change problem, it's the inability of wind turbines and solar panels to comply with the Clean Energy Transformation Act.  That even if they could eliminate all the state's fossil fueled generation it would only reduce CO2 emissions by less than 0.2% if planet’s.

However, the majority of the posts have dealt with the fact the Sound Transit Board is made up well-minded elected officials who don't understand what constitutes effective public transit. That board members the Traffic Lab charitably called “Nonspecialists” have their elected office payment supplemented by $150,000 to $230,000 as compensation for serving.

Public transit’s goal should be to provide access to transit for those who can’t or choose not to drive in sufficient numbers to reduce congestion for those who drive.  Snohomish Community Transit (SCT), King County Metro (KCM) and Pierce County Transit, have all provided transit service in the Sound Transit Service area. SCT has provided routes throughout the county with multiple routes into Seattle and Bellevue. Sound Transit’s Express Regional Bus routes supplemented those transit systems on the major routes throughout area.

However, a February 12^th 2019 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article reported “Seattle-area traffic was the sixth most congested among big U.S. cities”. The problem was not a lack of bus routes, it was the lack of parking with access to bus routes. A Seattle Times Nov 2, 2016, article reported "19,488 cars occupied park-and-ride facilities each weekday in Snohomish, King and Pierce Counties” with “51 facilities next to express bus or train stations that were at least 95% full”.   Yet Sound Transit’s response was limited to promising ST3 would add 8,560 parking spaces between 2024 and 2041.  A fraction of what’s needed to meet projected transit requirements.

Rather than use funds to add parking to increase access, Sound Transit opted to use the funds to extend light rail across I-90 Bridge and its light rail spine along I-5.  All for 4-car light rail trains that don’t have the capacity to accommodate the riders needed to reduce peak hour freeway congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. Dwarfing the cost of implementing additional bus service with added parking during peak commute and off-peak bus operation.

 Instead, Sound Transit chose to provide riders by forcing bus riders using existing parking to transfer to light rail trains for the commute into and out of Seattle   The result being replacing bus routes into Seattle reduced transit capacity into the city, did nothing to reduce GP lane congestion, and reduced access for current riders during peak hour commute.

The bottom line is Sound Transit has been allowed to not release Northgate Link ridership data that “likely” was far less than its 41,000 to 49,000 prediction.  The need to redo light rail attachments has delayed the June 2023 demonstration of the failure of 4-car trains every 8 minutes to reduce I-90 corridor congestion.  

Thus, this blog looks forward to reporting the “Lynnwood Link” debut this fall will again demonstrate the folly of the light rail spine.