Amazon Should Sue to stop Ballard to Sodo Link

The previous post regarding an External Consultant assumed that Sound Transit wanted advice from someone other than the Transit Advisory Group (TAG) and the private consultant they’d already spent 2 years and $2M funding.  The hope was the “External Consultants” would recognize the folly of spending more the $12B and 9 years disrupting South Lake Union when the area already had far more accessible bus routes to far more convenient destinations.  

I emailed the post to the board for their “Public Comment” period at the beginning of the meeting. The meeting included notice that letters with hundreds of cosigners objecting to either the 5th or 7th alternative.  However, my “Comment” was the only letter that objected to both claiming existing KCM bus routes provided a far better public transit option. Those comments were followed by 30 minutes of commentators concerned with the impact of both Preferred Options for SLU station locations and the lack of additional studies for Near CID station. 

The “External Consultant” who followed “Public Comments” turned out to be David Peters, the private consultant they’ve funded for two years.  Thus, while independent, Peters was hardly “external”.  He recommended Sound Transit continue with the prior Preferred Alternative “Denny Shifted North + SLU 7^th/Harrison  as the Board's version of, “if we build it riders will come” approach.

However, the fact that Ballard to Sodo “riders can’t come until 2039” would seem to merit further discussions. Of particular interest was a spokesman for Amazon who had previously objected to the impact of the SLU 7^th/Harrison route.  Again, claiming plans to close Westlake Avenue and portions of the surrounding streets would adversely affect Amazon's 50,000 employees and 100 small businesses in the area.

Amazon would seem to have the option to use legal procedures to avoid the adverse effects of the Sound Transit decision.  File a class action suit on behalf of its own employees and the 100 small businesses to stop the Link. Not only would they benefit, current transit riders would also benefit. Streetcar riders could continue to do so.  KCM bus riders would continue to have options for egress and access along routes on streets into downtown.  Far more convenient than what they'll have at the new Westlake station with Ballard to Sodo link.  

East Link and West Seattle extension operation could also benefit from being terminated at existing CID station. Commuters needing to go beyond CID could use DSTT and Line 1 access for South Seattle. Chinatown residents would have the existing location, the "near CID" location, they’ve wanted rather than North and South stations they’ve objected to for 2 years.  The Line 1 Link wouldn’t lose trains to East Link and capacity to West Seattle until 2039 when 2^nd tunnel would debut.

The bottom line is Sound Transit continues to use their current consultants to support their Ballard to Sodo extension. However, continuing with the existing transit options for riders avoids all the disruption and $12B expenditure.  Sound Transit needs to consider whether the benefits are worth the resulting cost and disruption.  

An Amazon class action suit could force that review.

 

External Consultant’s Ballard Link Extension Report

The livestream video of the Sound Transit Board April 27^th included an extensive discussion concerning a potential new alternative for routing the Ballard to Sodo extension.  That the Board was told they needed to choose how to proceed in their May 23^rd Board meeting.

The agenda for that meeting includes the following:

6. Report from external consultants

Presentation from the Board’s independent consultant on the Ballard Link Extension.

Apparently. the Board needed “external” advice beyond what they were getting from the $2 million, 2-year contract they’d had with the Transit Advisory Group and a private consultant. It’s not clear whether the outside consultants were asked to recommend one of the two alternative routes or, as a May 3^rd post on this blog had proposed, consider no Ballard to Sodo link as” A Better Ballard Link Option.”

The reason being King County Metro already provides extensive public transit service to the entire area. Rapid Line D on 15^th Ave from Crown Hill through Ballard, Rapid Ride E from Aurora Village on Aurora Ave, and Rapid Ride C from Lake Union along Westlake Ave provide service on the major roues into Seattle. KCM Routes 1, 2, 3 and 4 provide similar service from Freemont, Seattle Pacific College, and Queen Anne Hill. Route schedules for all the bus routes vary from 7-8 min peak, 15-30 off peak, and hourly early morning.  All the buses are currently routed to and from multiple stops along 3^rd Ave for egress and access. 

By comparison access to light rail trains into Seattle for both preferred Ballard Link extensions is limited to new stations in Ballard, Interbay, Smith Clove, Seattle Center, South Lake Union, Denny, to Westlake. The “Preferred Alternatives” differ on where to locate the Denny and South Lake Union stations. Both alternatives have raised objections from those affected by the potential loss of their business and the years of disruption needed to implement the stations on either route. 

Whatever that decision, egress, and access at the new Westlake station will be far less convenient for commuters than the current multiple bus stops on 3^rd Ave for the rides into and out of Seattle.  Those wishing to go beyond bus stops in downtown Seattle will have access to multiple bus routes on 3^rd Ave or nearby to destination.  

The “external consultants” would likely conclude that without light rail from Ballard to Westlake there was no need for the tunnel to Sodo.  That the need for the “tunnel from Sodo” could be negated by modifying the existing CID station to serve as a terminus for both East Link and West Seattle Links. The modified CID would allow commuters to use Line 1 through existing DSTT   and satisfy the Sound Transit Board’s quest for a “once in a lifetime opportunity to create a space for people to transfer from light rail to light rail, to Sounder and Amtrak".  

Terminating East Link and West Seattle Link at CID would allow both to schedule service to meet local demand.  End the Line 1 loss of half the DSTT trains to East Link and the need to share its capacity with West Seattle riders until the second tunnel is completed in 2039.

The bottom line is previous posts have detailed there was no need to spend $12.5B and 10-15 years disrupting Seattle boring a second tunnel.  This post reflects a recognition the existing bus service make both Preferred Alternatives to the tunnel another example of the Board’s "Field of Dreams Approach": If we build it riders will come.  

Sound Transit has asked for an “external consultants” assessment. Await the Board's May 23^rd “livestream” video for whether they concur.. 

Benefits from Reducing States CO2 Emissions

The May 13^th Seattle Times Climate Lab page A8 details why, “Forecast for solar power’s future isn’t clear-cut as the weather“ with the following: 

Western Washington is one of the worst places in the continuous United State for solar energy. Perhaps even the worst place.   

And:

Despite all the growth and cash, solar power accounts for less that 1% of Washington’s total electricity demand.

The problem being:

Western Washington ranks at the lowest amount of solar energy per square meter in the United States. 

Yet the same edition included an Opinion under the title “Seattle can be a national model for large-city climate action” with the following:

Climate scientists believe that the planet is at serious risk of crossing "tipping points" that will lead to irreversible increases in global warming.

The Opinion page laments Seattle’s response as:

Far short of the scope and urgency that is needed to meet city’s goals.

That “What can be done” was seven actions City Council and Mayor Bruce Harrel should do under the following:

Reaffirm the city’s commitment to early phase out of greenhouse gas emissions.

That Opinion generated a May 16^th Northwest Voices response regarding Climate Commitment Act vote this fall:   

We can’t afford that gamble with our future.  Vote no on 2117 in November.

Thus, the Seattle Times approach to solar power’s future goes from Climate Lab detailing the difficulty in providing solar power, to an Opinion page detailing what needs to be done to get there, to a letter urging voters to repeal 2117 to keep limiting CO2 emissions.  

All three ignore the fact Washington’s CO2 emissions made up only 1.56% of the countries.  That the United States made up 11.2% of the worlds. Thus, any benefits from reducing emissions are limited to reducing the states 0.117% of the total. Not worth much when compared to China’s 30% with plans to add 25 % more by 2030. 

 

Sound Transit and Traffic Lab Ignore Starter Line Debacle

The May 8^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Livestream video exemplifies the Board’s approach to creating “the largest transit system in the country”: “If we build it, they will come.” The April 21^st Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page had claimed the 27^th East Link Starter Line debut would “change how Eastsiders think about getting around”. The Bellevue mayor claimed “Everything that you have seen happen in Bellevue over the last ten years has been because of the promise of light rail.

The article detailed how commuters would use each of the 8 stations.   Subsequent articles detailed how the commuters should pay for ride. An April 26^th post raised doubts as to whether the Starter Line would attract the 4000 to 5700 riders claimed.  

Thus, on a couple of Wednesdays on my way to play bridge I stopped by the BelRed station around 10:15 am. On both occasions there were less than 30 cars in the 300-stall lot.  While there, two trains on the route to Bellevue stopped but no one got on and the two light rail car trains were essentially empty.  On subsequent Thursdays after hitting golf balls at Bellevue driving range, I stopped by BelRed around 8:30 am.  Again, the lot had very few cars, didn’t see anyone get on or off, and very few riders in train cars. 

 After breakfast at Chase’s Pancake House, I stopped by the South Bellevue T/C at 9:45.  The bottom floor with access to ST550 had about 50 cars. However, there were no cars on top floor with access to Starter Line. While there I did see two people get on though didn’t notice anyone getting off.   

The lack of apparent riders prompted my interest in the May 8^th video. That the System Expansion Committee meeting could include the results of nearly two weeks of the Starter Line operation.  They had approved spending $42 million to activate the line and a schedule for 2-car trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day.  At $30 per-mile-per-car, the 6.6-mile extension would cost $78,000 per day.  

However, the Sound Transit Board and Seattle Times Traffic Lab had never released results of the October 2021 Northgate Line debut showing riders added were a fraction of the 42,000 to 49,000 projected. Thus, the interest in the May 11^th livestream release of the System Expansion Committee meeting.

It didn’t take long. The meeting began with the CEO calling the April 27^th opening day ceremonies a huge success. He detailed all the luminaries who had attended, that they’d given out hundreds of Orca cards, and that 35,000 had rode the Starter Line.  He concluded by thanking all those who had contributed to making the debut a success and expressed confidence that future Lynnwood and Redmond Link extensions would be equally successful.  And the Board’s System Expansion Committee members seemed to relish the success

The bottom line is the Seattle Times has again neglected to follow up previous articles heralding Starter Line debut with someone checking out actual ridership.  However, that failure is dwarfed by the fact that the Sound Transit CEO and the Committee responsible for how to proceed with spending $145B apparently wasn’t concerned that "they'd built it but few riders came."

An ominous debut for Terri Mestas, the new Megaproject hire, who was introduced during the meeting. 

  

My Candidacy for Governor

It’s that time of the year when I again file as a candidate for office, not to win but to use the Voters’ Pamphlet to attract voters to this blog.  It’s my attempt to make a difference by providing the state’s voters information they won’t read in the Seattle Times or hear on local TV news.  

It started more than a decade ago with concerns Sound Transit’s had failed to comply with RCW 81.104.00 (2)(b) by never considering “a low capital option that maximizes the current system”.  My attempts to raise the issue with letters to Attorney General Ferguson’s office culminated in the following response:  

Regarding Sound Transit, our office does not advise or represent regional transit authorities, nor does our office have the role of supervising or correcting the activities of such authorities.

The Attorney’s General lack of “authority” has resulted in Sound Transit confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail trains, precluding 2-way bus-only routes with 10 times light rail train capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10 the cost.  They’ve never recognized 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity needed to reduce peak hour multilane freeway congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. 

Not only have they spent billions extending light rail across I-90 Bridge, they’re also extending light rail along I-5 beyond UW and SeaTac.  None of the extensions increase the capacity, they only increase the cost.  Riders added reduce access for those along Line 1 route into Seattle.  

Even more absurd many of the extension riders are those who previously rode buses in the city.  The reason being that rather than increase access with added parking near stations or local bus routes to stations Sound Transit is terminating King County Metro and Snohomish Community Transit routes at light rail stations.   The result, the more the extensions the more the lost transit capacity into Seattle as well as less access for Line 1 riders, and no reduction in freeway congestion.

The bottom line is my candidacy has gone from attempting to use RCW to prevent the extensions to warning what’s coming.  That Sound Transit has used voter Prop 1 approval in 2016 to spend $54 billion between 2017 and 2041 to spend $148.2 billion from 2017 to 2046 and a $28.5 billion debt when ST3 taxes end.  Sound Transit called it, “building the most ambition transit system expansion in the nation”.  

The problem is they are using it to replace bus routes into and nothing to reduce congestion.  Again, my candidacy is an attempt to tell voters what they won’t read or hear elsewhere about the folly of the light rail spine and other projects of dubious value.  More to follow.

Voters' Pamphlet Statement for Governor

 I’m filing as a candidate as I have for a decade, not to win but to use Voters’ Pamphlet to attract voters throughout state to my blog, http://stopeastlinknow.blogspot.com. It’s my attempt to make a difference by providing information voters won’t read or hear about elsewhere.  

For example, the purported need to reduce CO2 emissions.  The state only emits 1.5% of the country’s and 0.175% of the planets, hardly a climate crisis.  Forcing emitters to pay to continue only adds to the costs they’ll pass on to consumers.  Costs that will surely increase if the Climate Commitment Act isn’t repealed.

Voters don’t read or hear that WSDOT plans to impose HOT fees on two I-405 lanes will increase congestion on GP lanes and little to reduce HOV travel times. They need to allow GP use on one of the lanes and set fees on remaining HOV lane to achieve the 2000 vehicles per hour and 45mph that maximizes capacity.  

That Sound Transit intends to use 2016 ST3 approval for $54B from 2017 to 2041 to spend $145B from 2041 to 2046 and end with $28B owed.  The resulting light rail spine won’t have the capacity to reduce I-5 peak hour congestion and will cost too much to operate off peak.  Their plans to use light rail trains to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into Seattle, do nothing to reduce GP lane congestion, and riders transferred will reduce access for current riders.

They plan to spend $12.5B and ten or more years disrupting Seattle for light rail trains from Ballard to Sodo. The area already has excellent bus service and terminating East Link and West Seattle at the existing CID station benefits both areas and avoids the need for a second tunnel.

My blog provides the details.  

 

A Better Ballard Link Option

The previous post raised doubts about whether the Sound Transit East Link Starter Line they've spent $42 million expediting, that costs $76,000 daily to operate, will attract 4000 to 5700 riders.  The livestream video of the April Sound Transit Board’s April 27^th meeting should raise doubts about the Board’s entire approach to the “largest transit system expansion in the country”. 

This post details why the video of their approach to the Ballard Link exemplifies that concern. It involved Sound Transit informing the Board they were considering a “potential new alternative” that moved the Denny Station west and made minor changes to tunnel route.  It detailed how both options would impact Westlake Ave, Denny Way, Harrison St, and 5^thand 7^th Ave. The new alternative would avoid affecting Westlake and 7^th Ave and minimize impact on Denny Way.  However, Harrison St and 5^th Ave would have reduced GP Lanes for nine years.

The new alternative would also increase construction time from 8 to 9 years and were advised by the Transit Advisory Group (TAG) the delay would add $500 million to  the $12.5B Ballard Link cost.  The new alternative would move South Lake Union (SLU) station from 7^th to 5^th so Rapid Ride E would continue into downtown rather than terminate at (SLU). The result being KCM route 3-4 every 15 minutes from Seattle Pacific and Queen Anne Hill would be the only bus route terminated at SLU station..  

The presentation included a chart comparing Performance, Construction effects, and Cost and Schedules for the Current preferred alternative and Potential new alternative. That Potential Board Action was anticipated at the May 9 System Expansion Committee and May 23 Board Meeting to choose between not to consider the new alternative, choose it later as the preferred alternative, or to choose it now as the preferred alternative.

No one considered a third alternative, no longer route light rail from Ballard to SODO.  While the route was included in the ST3 Prop 1 voters approved in 2016, it’s already been delayed until 2039.  Sound Transit has used the 2016 approval for $54B from 2017 to 2041 to evolve into spending $145B from 2017 to 2046 and leave a $28B debt in 2046.  

Thus, not spending $12.5B and 10-15 years of disrupting downtown Seattle would surely be worth considering.  Especially since Ballard, Queen Anne, Seattle Center, and South Lake Union all have access to transit into downtown.   From the South Lake Union Streetcar and KCM Rapid Ride C from Lake Union, to Rapid Line D on 15^th Ave through Ballard, and KCM Routes 1, 2, 3 and 4 commuters already have access to 24 hours of service.  Route schedules vary from 7-8 min peak, 15-30 off peak, and hourly early morning

All the buses are currently routed to and from multiple stops on 3^rd Ave.  Again, if the new alternative is selected only routes 3 and 4 will be terminated at SLU.  A dubious benefit as those riders along with those choosing to ride Ballard Link light rail will  need to use new Westlake station for egress and access, far less convenient for most.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board needs to recognize their goal should be to improve transit into Seattle.  That existing bus routes can do it better than light rail from Ballard.  That East Link and West Seattle light rail can better serve their commuters if they’re terminated at a modified current CID station rather than routed through tunnels under Seattle.  Use the existing DSTT for those needing to go further.

The benefits of saving billions and years of disruption are sure worthy of consideration.