Starter Line Debut Doubts

The April 21 Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article “Eastside’s newest startup: Light rail line finally arrives” begins with claims it “will change how Eastsiders think about getting around”.  The “finally arrives” description reflects the East Link debut’s delay from its June 2023 service date due to need to redo track attachments.

 

The claim it “will change how Eastsiders think about getting around“  is similar to a Traffic Lab’s September 26^th 2021 “Transit Transformation” .headline. It heralded the Northgate Link, October 2^nd debut as “Lght rail ready to open at Northgate, changing more than just commutes".  It included the following regarding Northgate Link benefits:

Sound Transit has estimated the new Northgate, Roosevelt, and U-District stations that open Saturday will attract a combined 42,000 to 49.000 riders per day.

Yet the paper still abides ST not releasing data showing how many commuters used the three stations to access light rail. Total ridership increases from when Northgate link debuted indicate only a fraction of the projected riders were added.  The problem being not enough people had access to the three light rail stations. Despite attempts to boost ridership by forcing commuters who previously ride buses to transfer to light rail. Reducing transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to increase transit ridership.

The ST predictions for 4000-5700 Starter Link riders seem equally dubious. The 6.6-mile, 8-station route’s 2-car trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day would seem to suffice. Again, it’s that, except for 300 stalls at RTC and BelRed station, access is limited to those living within walking distance of the remaining stations.

Potential riders already have access to KCM Rapid Ride B. It provides 173 trips with up to 50 stops from 4:21am to 01:01am from Redmond Transit Center and Bellevue T/C.  Yet the article reported it only carries 4200 riders to and from Bellevue.  Its schedule shows it takes 26 minutes from RTC to Bellevue T/C, the result of it providing access at all the potential stops. (“a meandering. 25-minute ride”, per Redmond Mayor) 

The decision to route the Starter Line to South Bellevue presumably reflects the inability to reverse direction at Bellevue T/C.  Access to the Line is limited to those within walking distance of East Main station.  Those potential riders currently have access to 8 stops on ST550 from downtown Bellevue to South Bellevue every 10 minutes during peak commute with 15 to 30 minutes off peak from 4:54 am to 12:27 am.

The transit options already available would seem to limit Starter Line ridership. Even the Seattle Times recognizes the need to attract new riders. The April 26^th Traffic Lab details “What to expect when you try the Eastside’s eight light rail station” and a “how-to guide for the new Eastside light rail line”.  Clearly in hopes of adding new transit riders.

It's highly unlikely even downtown Bellevue Starter Line commuters will chose to transfer to Starter Line at South Bellevue on return trips. Routes from Bellevue T/C face another problem, light rail noise.  The Bellevue Municipal Noise Code limits levels to 55 dB in residential areas and 60 dB in commercial. Those limits resulted in ST spending millions to shield homes across Bellevue Way and along route into Bellevue. 

Yet ST makes no attempt to shield Starter Line route, limiting noise mitigation to what their CEO considers as “reasonable and feasible”.  They don’t even intend to monitor noise levels, instead relying on operators to limit velocity to reduce levels. Train noise level concerns would seem to limit those wanting to live within walking distance.

None of the Traffic Lab articles deal with Starter Line cost.  ST allocated $42 million for activation.  Their operating plans call for 2-car light rail trains every 10 minutes over the 6.6 route from RTC to South Bellevue and back.  The resulting 96 trips of 13.2 miles for 2-car trains will result in 2534.4 vehicle miles daily.  

ST budgets light rail cars ad ~$30 per revenue vehicle mile (RVM) or $76,000 per day. Thus, with $2.50 fares, likely ridership fare box revenue will be dwarfed by operating costs.

The bottom line is the Starter Line debut reflects the ST approach to public transit is “if we build it riders will come”.  The results been they've spent $42 million expediting a transit system costing $76,000 daily to attract 4000 to 5700 riders.  The question remains whether the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, so willing to abet  them will report if they did.

An Alternative to ST Bus Base North Boondoggle

The following April 11^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee agenda item caught my attention:

For Recommendation to the Board

Motion Mo M2024-19: Authorizing the chief executive officer to enter into an interlocal government agreement with the City of Bothell for transfer of development rights from Bus Base North, and to execute and record a transfer of development rights covenant for the Bus Base North property.

 

The reason being previous posts had questioned the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee’s authority to approve a Bus Base North (BBN). 

The 2016 Prop 1 voters approved included a ST3 Map PDF specifically listing Bus Maintenance Facility as “Not Included.”  Sound Transit plans to replace bus routes with light rail trains would seem to allow existing facilities to maintain the 48 buses planned for their Stride bus routes. 

 

Yet the Sound Transit Board in the July 27^th .2023 meeting approved Resolution No. R2023-17 to spend $499,500.000 on a Bus Base North. 17 with the following:

Adopts the Bus Base North Stride Bus Rapid Transit project baseline schedule and budget by (a) increasing the authorized project allocation to-date by $216,463,500 from $283,036,500 to $499,500,000.

Sound Transit had earlier decreed East King County would provide $215,391,000 of the $283,036,000, so it’s likely they’ll fund most of the increase. Snohomish funds paid $9,340,000 of the earlier number and presumable a similar percentage of the increase. Again, without questioning the need for the facility to maintain the buses.

 

Sound Transit needs for light rail vehicle maintenance led to the Board in 2014 approving a maintenance facility in the Bel-Red area’s Spring District. In 2017 they approved a design-build contract for the Operation & Maintenance Facility (OMF) East in Bellevue. An August 2020 OFM East “Facts Sheet” detailed it included “yard storage for up to 96 light rail vehicles, vehicle maintenance, parts storage and cleaning shop”. The 365-day operating facility would include administrative offices for approximately 250 full-time employees in support of East Link, Lynnwood Link, Downtown Redmond, and Federal Way Link Extensions.

 

One of the OMF East benefits was it had always included plans for Transit Oriented Development (TOD).  A 2024 Sound Transit Spring District Station TOD  included a picture of the 6.8-acre TOD site for a "Program of 500 homes and 400,000 SF for office."  It included Sound Transit and the City of Bellevue each providing property at no cost (a collective $12 million value) to support the development of affordable housing on the site. Bridge Housing and Touchstone had been selected to develop the property with approximately 500 units of housing, over 400,000 square feet of office space, retail, resident amenities on the ground floor, and public park space.

 

As suggested by the April 11 agenda, Sound Transits approach to developing property not needed for BBN after construction was far different. The presentation described it as a 526,000 SF-site, with 130,000 SF needed for an Administration & Operations Building, surface parking lot for workers, underground parking for 120 buses, and Maintenance Building.  The presentation detailed 171,000 SF was reserved for future development though it included the CEO’s declaration “it was surplus and does not have a transit use.”  

The agenda item M2024-19 dealt with the remaining 225,000 SF.  Apparently, to appease City of Bothell zoning concerns, Sound Transit agreed to a Transfer Development Rights (TDR) allowing Bothell to reap any benefits.  That the agreement was approved by Bothell last year, well in advance of the April 11 request they recommend board approval.  

 

The bottom line is the TDR result is Sound Transit loses all benefits from TOD from the $499.5 million they’ll spend on BBN.   It continues the boondoggle of their funding a maintenance facility that was stipulated in 2016 ST3 PDF as “not included” and whose 48 Stride buses didn’t need the 120-bus capacity of BBN.  It's time Sound Transit look more at existing facilities to maintain those buses.

Lynnwood Link’s Debut

The previous post questioned whether the new Megaproject hire, Terri Mestas, would recognize Sound Transit’s biggest problem is the Board doesn’t recognize 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. 

That the Board compounds the lack-of-capacity problem by using it to replace bus routes. The result is the money and time spent implementing their transit expansion will result in a product that doesn't reduce congestion, it only increases transit operating costs. Adding to what area residents will be required to pay off\ the bonds that funded that failure, far beyond 2046.

This post details why the Lynnwood debut detailed in the April 5^th Seattle Times front page article typifies Traffic Lab failure to recognize that failure.  For example, it reports “thousands who currently transfer to trains at Northgate will take the whole way from the four new stations to the University of Washington and beyond”. The Traffic Lab apparently doesn't recognize using light rail to replace buses at Northgate reduced transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to reduce I-5 GP congestion.

It included a Sound Transit spokesman’s forecast the Link will add 5,000 to 35,000 riders to the 1 line’s 72,000 daily trips in late 2023.  The 5000-rider prediction, a substantial “adjustment” to the Sound Transit website’s 25,300 to 34,200.  The spokesman explained Sound Transit was “hedging their bets” in response to changing conditions. 

Their “hedging” resulted in adding a special Route 515, continue routing ST510 into and out of Seattle. They also doubled Sounder routes from Everett, another example of their “field of dreams” approach that if they provide it riders will come.

Again, neither Sound Transit nor Traffic Lab apparently recognize the Sound Transit goal should be to reduce I-5 travel times into Seattle.  An April 9^th WSDOT Travel Time reported the average travel time on the 15.2-mile Lynnwood-to-Seattle route at 7:30 was 40 minutes. That those on the HOV lanes did so in 28 minutes. Clearly Travel times for those riding buses into Seattle wasn’t the problem.

Sound Transit could have reduced the average Lynnwood-to-Seattle travel time by providing increased access to additional bus routes with minimal increase on HOV lane travel time. Instead, Sound Transit will spend $3.3 billion to allow those riding buses on HOV lanes to ride light rail into Seattle. 

Any travel time benefits for former bus riders will “likely” be offset by the need to egress and access in DSTT rather than multiple designated stops in Seattle. That access in DSTT for the return trip along with those with shorter routes will be a particular problem.  That the cost of providing that service will dwarf any savings in bus operating cost. Especially during off-peak operation with fewer riders in either 4-car train or bus.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab Lynnwood Link article typifies their failure to recognize the folly of Sound Transit using 4-car light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle.  They’re apparently unaware those riding buses on HOV lanes are already traveling 30% faster than GP lane riders. That Sound Transit has spent $3.3 billion extending light rail that will add $200,000 to daily operating costs for light rail trains of dubious benefit to riders and no help for GP lane commuters.

Will Megaproject Hire Fix ST's Biggest Problem?

The March 28^th post opined Sound Transit’s biggest problem was a Board of Directors made up of elected officials who don’t understand the basics of effective public transit. That their goal should be to provide transit for those who can’t or don’t choose to drive in sufficient numbers to reduce congestion for those who do. And to do so in a cost-effective way . Instead, Dow Constantine’s board consists of those who've approved implementing light rail on I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail and are willing to approve a light rail “spine” that doesn’t attract the riders needed and cost too much to operate.

A March 29^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab announcement,” Megaproject leader hired by Sound Transit with $600k salary”. indicated the paper had similar Sound Transit Board concerns.  Calling the hiring the result of “the immediate need by 18 “nonspecialist” members” of the transit board capable of steering the nation’s biggest transit expansion that’s already running years late”.  That their finance plan had soared to $145 billion (from $54 billion voters approved in 2016 with ST3) and “projects “currently trending two to five years late”.

A major reason for increased spending is that since 2016 the board’s Sound Transit System Expansion Committee has approved every Sound Transit request for additional funding without seriously questioning the need.  The most egregious example being the $499 million request for a bus base north the ST3 had stipulated was not included. That all the expansion committee’s recommendations had been approved by full board, again with minimal discussion of costs or merit.

However, the Megaproject hiring was probably not the result of Constantine finally conceding his board appointments had been nonspecialists. It was more likely the result of the Constantine board following the advice from a $2 million Transit Advisor Group (TAG) study. The hiring was one of six TAG recommendations to improve how Sound Transit process for implementing their planned transit expansion.

However, the TAG never advised Sound Transit their problem was not the process it was the product, the light rail spine.  Four-car light rail rains don’t have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak”.   That the light rail “spine” won’t reduce I-5 congestion into or out of Seattle. That using light rail trains to replace bus routes into the city reduces transit capacity, nothing to reduce GP lane congestion, and reduces access for current riders into Seattle.  The increased operating costs for the extensions will dwarf any fare box funds, especially during off-peak.

The Traffic Lab raised concerned with “the toughest route ahead, the $11.2 billion Ballard-to-Sodo connector.  It included a second tunnel under Seattle that won’t be available until 2039.  Apparently, like the board and TAG, not recognizing there would be no need for a second tunnel if the Ballard link were terminated at existing Westlake station. That the East Link and West Seattle Links could be terminated at the existing CID station. That those going beyond could use the existing DSTT. 

That doing so would expedite Ballard link operation and end the Line 1 link losing half the DSTT tunnel capacity to East Link and sharing its remaining capacity with West Seattle commuters until 1939 when second tunnel begins operation. That operating schedules for all three links could be matched to meet local demand.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board biggest problem is not the cost increases or the years of delay.  Its that the money and time spent implementing their transit expansion will result in a product that doesn't reduce congestion. That funding the bonds required and operating the extensions will be a financial strain for far beyond 2046.  Thus what they needed was someone who would recognize the folly of extending the light rail spine and using the extensions to replace buses. That Seattle didn’t need the years of disruption and the cost involved with a second tunnel.

The question remains whether Terri Mestas, “someone outside transportation” is the one to do it.