The Eastlink Debacle Begins

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab Feb16th article heralding the April 27th Eastlink Starter Line debut included the Bellevue Mayor’s claim: 

“I think that light rail is really delivering on the promise we made to our communities: that you would be able to get around in a substantial way without a car in a city like Bellevue and still get to work and places you want to be.”

The mayor apparently doesn’t consider the Rapid Line B route between Redmond and Bellevue or the Express Bus ST550 between Bellevue and South Bellevue Station as “substantial”.  They both run every 10 minutes during peak commute with Rapid Line B commuters having access at 25 stops beginning in Redmond and along Bel-Red corridor to Bellevue and the ST550 having 8 stops beginning in downtown Bellevue and along route to South Bellevue Station.

She’s apparently not concerned that unless one manages to park in Redmond Technology Center (RTC) garage access to the entire East Link Starter Line will be limited to those within walking distance of one of the 7 stations on route to South Bellevue.  At South Bellevue Station, Starter Link riders will need to transfer to ST550, sharing access into Seattle with those using station for parking and those riding SR550 from downtown Bellevue.  

Those wanting to use the Starter Line for the return trip will need to exit ST550 at South Bellevue.  The limited access and the need to transfer to and from buses at South Bellevue make it unlikely the Starter Line trains will need 3 or 4 cars to accommodate the initial crowds or considered a “substantial” addition to getting around Bellevue without a car”.  

There’s also the matter of the additional costs Sound Transit will incur from the Starter Link operation.  The Board approved spending $47 million activating the Link.  Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs as approximately $30 per revenue mile.  Thus, the operating costs for a 2-car light rail train round trip on the 6.6-mile link will be approximately $800. 

The schedule for Starter Line trains, every 10 minute for 16 hours, requires 96 trips, costing Sound Transit $76,000 per day; a substantial additional cost to provide for those “without a car in Bellevue”.  Especially since it's unlikely to significantly add to the number of commuters using public transit.

Starter Line operation also imposes a significant risk for those living along route from RTC to Bellevue: Light rail noise due to irregularities on the wheel and rail surface that excite the rail and cause it to vibrate.  The Bellevue Noise Code limits commercial noise level to 60 dB.  

Sound Transit chose to spend millions on sound walls to shield homes across Bellevue Way from East Link train noise. However, they’ve made no attempt to shield those along the route from Bellevue to Redmond.  Instead revising their Link Noise Mitigation Policy to do whatever their CEO considers is “reasonable and feasible”. 

The only viable way to comply with the Bellevue Noise Code is to limit light rail train velocity.  However, it’s not clear whether Sound Transit will even measure noise levels or consider limiting Starter Link velocity to meet 60 db as “reasonable and feasible”.  

 

The bottom line is there would be no East Link if the Bellevue City Council had not allowed the 10 permits Sound Transit needed to route light rail through the city.  The East Link delay to redo rail attachments has delayed demonstrating the folly of Sound Transit attempts to use light rail trains to replace bus routes on I-90 bridge. Thus, it’s up to the Starter Line debut to do so for the route through Bellevue to RTC.  

The question is whether Sound Transit will release data showing Starter Line ridership and how it compared to the projected 6000. They’ve never provided data comparing riders added by Northgate extension with their 42,000 to 49,000 projections. 

The Starter Line's debut is only the beginning of the Eastlake debacle.

 

WSDOT Toll Report Belies I-405 “Clogging”

The February 13^th Traffic Lab headline "Washington’s $15 Tolls Hope to Reduce Traffic, Increase Revenue” prompted a review of the WSDOT Toll Report. The 2023 Fiscal Year Report for “Express toll lanes” included the following for “I-405 Express Toll Lanes vs General Purpose Lane Speeds FY 2023”.

 The southbound morning peak period sees the lowest performance in the single-lane section between Lynnwood and Bothell with the tolled lane averaging speeds of 46 mph-though still notably higher average speeds than the general-purpose lanes in the area.  The tolled lanes in all other sections achieve average speeds of 50 mph or greater during the peak period.

 

It’s followed by “Express Toll Lane Speeds are Faster Than General Purpose Lane Speeds

 

Northbound Bothell to Lynnwood = 12 mph faster

Southbound Lynnwood to Bothell = 15 mph faster

Northbound Bellevue to Bothell = 23 mph faster

Southbound Bothell to Bellevue = 9 mph faster.

 

The goal of most state transportation systems HOT fees is to maximize HOV lane capacity by setting fees that result in 2000 vehicles per hour and 45 mph velocity.  That doing so avoids the problem when more than 2000 carpoolers per hour slow the HOV lane during peak commute and fewer than 2000 carpoolers waste capacity that could be used to reduce general purpose lane congestion.  Thus, most transportation commissions would consider the HOT fees on the Lynnwood-to-Bothell just about right and consider reducing Bothell-to-Bellevue fees to increase the HOV lane capacity or eliminate HOT on one of the two lanes.  

 

The WSDOT HOT approach is more about increasing HOV lane velocity (and revenue) than increasing capacity that reduces general-purpose lane congestion.  Calling the Lynnwood-to-Bothell section's 46 mph the “lowest performance” section and increasing fees to on lanes on sections that already “average speeds of 50 mph or greater during the peak period”. 

It’s especially egregious they’re wasting capacity on two HOV lanes.  If they wanted to increase HOV lane velocity and waste that capacity they should do so on one HOV lane.  Those unwilling to pay the fees on the return Bellevue-to-Bothell would no longer be forced to travel 23 mph slower, even slower with increased congestion from  $15 tolls.

Instead, the February 13^th Traffic Lab article included the following excerpts:

 

State law requires express toll lanes to flow at 45 mph during 90 percent of commute hours. The success rate was only 87 percent on I-405 and 63 percent on Highway 167 during early 2023, the Washington State Transportation Commission reported.

As of September, midweek data showed southbound Highway 167 hitting its $9 ceiling in 74 percent of peak afternoon hours, and I-405 reached its $10 max in 40 percent of southbound morning peak hours, the commission reported.

"The problem is you pay $10, and you still get stuck in congestion," said Mark Hallenbeck, retired director of the Washington State Transportation Center, at the University of Washington.

The bottom line is one can only surmise the ones raising the HOT fees, the Washington State Transportation Commission, had not bothered to read the WSDOT 2023 Year Toll Revenue Report. The report was surely available when the toll increase was considered.  It’s particularly “unfortunate” the Seattle Times Traffic Lab did not “dig into” the actual report.  Thus, the March 1^st $5.00 increase just adds to the debacle of WSDOT imposing HOT on two HOV lanes.

Seattle Times "Brakes on First Avenue Streetcar"

The February 10^th Seattle Times opinion page My Take letter “Put brakes on First Avenue streetcar for good of downtown” continues the papers abetting opposition to a “Connector” between South Lake Union and First Hill Streetcars.  The opinion’s concern, “The “Culture Connector would likely cost $410 million and take seven years to complete” and that during construction, “the digging, the noise, the dust, the congestion, the street closures--could potentially shut down dozens of businesses along the First Avenue and negatively impact the lives of thousands of residents”.

It concludes urging Mayor Harrell: Please stop any and all considerations of the “Culture Connector” streetcar project immediately.  Urging he spend the money “cleaning up the streets, restoring public order, and offering help and shelter to the city’s unhoused and drug dependent population”. Yet, between the concerns with the connector construction and the conclusion urging Mayor stop connector are several paragraphs lamenting what’s already been lost.  

 

Apparently not recognizing providing the streetcar connection along 1^st Ave would provide South Lake Union and First Hill riders easy access to the entire area.  Both routes providing access from 10 stops into downtown, with added ridership benefitting the area, potentially reversing what’s been lost.  

 

However, those potential connector benefits are dwarfed by the fact it can negate the need for a second light rail tunnel.  Ending the need to spend $13 billion and10 years disrupting downtown Seattle boring a second tunnel and implementing 5 stations for access.  Terminating East Link and West Seattle link at existing CID station would result in Sound Transit finally responding to nearly two years of the area's request for a near CID station.  

 

Terminating Ballard Link at existing Westlake station would eliminate the need to wait for second tunnel.  South Lake Union commuters could use the existing South Lake streetcar and connector into downtown.  Avoiding the need to wait for the tunnel with far better access at a fraction of the cost and disruption from implementing light rail stations in the area.  

Use light rail extensions to get commuters into Seattle, with DSTT for those needing to go beyond existing CID and Westlake stations.  End the folly of routing light rail trains from Redmond to Mariner, West Seattle to Everett, and Ballard to Tacoma.

 

The bottom line is the costs and construction disruption from implementing the connector line pale in comparison with the benefits of it negating the need for a second tunnel.   There would have been no second tunnel if 70% of Seattle voters had not approved ST3 in 2016. They deserve better.  It’s time the Seattle Times  stop abetting attempts to end it.

 

WSDOT’s I-405 2-HOT Lane Debacle Continues

The Jan 30^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Seattle-area express tolls soon to go as high as $15” continues the paper’s abiding a WSDOT 2-HOT lane approach that’s more about raising revenue than reducing travel times.  It includes the following:

 Higher rates are meant to unclog the express toll lanes by deterring some users and cover a fraction of the costs to widen freeways.

 

HOT lanes reduce roadway congestion by setting fees on an HOV lane to achieve the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to assure 45 mph.  Increasing tolls to avoid excessive HOV carpoolers slowing traffic during peak commute and reducing tolls to avoid the lack of carpoolers, wasting HOV capacity off-peak.  However, the WSDOT is unique in that between Bothell and Bellevue it  imposes HOT fees on two HOV lanes rather than the single HOT lane used elsewhere. They currently  plan to impose the fees on two lanes over the entire I-405 route.  

 

The I-405 HOV lanes are currently clogging because the lack of the additional GP lane increases the number of drivers willing to pay the current $10.00 limit to where traffic exceeds the 2000 per lane. Thus, raising the fees to $15.00 will deter some additional drivers and reduce peak hour HOV lane clogging.  However, those drivers will add to GP traffic and congestion.  

 

The WSDOT needs to consider reducing the incentive by converting one of the two HOV lanes between Bothell and Bellevue to GP use. (Doing so would also end the current problem from need to go from two lanes to one on return route near Bothell) HOT fees could be raised on the remaining HOV lane to whatever is required to limit traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour. Again, the additional lane would reduce the incentive to pay, limiting the peak hour HOT fee and the lost capacity during off-peak operation to one lane.  

The bottom line is neither the WSDOT nor the Seattle Times apparently recognize HOT lanes are clogging  because imposing HOT on 2 of 5 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increases GP  congestion and the incentive to pay the fees. The cost in terms of increased GP-lane travel time dwarf any additional toll revenue.  The latest increase just adds to the debacle that will surely be exacerbated with WSDOT plans to impose HOT on 2 of 4 lanes on the rest of I-405.