Looking Back on 2023

2023 was another year of WSDOT and Sound Transit demonstrating a failure to effectively respond to the area’s roadway congestion.  The WSDOT continued with plans to implement 2 HOT lanes from Lynnwood to Renton that’s more about raising revenue than reducing congestion. 

They could implement HOT to one lane with tolls raised to limit traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to assure 45mph. The resulting additional GP lane would reduce congestion on remaining lanes, reducing the incentive to pay the tolls, and WSDOT revenue.

2023 was also the first full year of Sound Transit ‘s light rail spine operation, the extension beyond UW to Northgate.  Rather than add parking for access they used the link to replace bus routes. They had predicted 41,000 to 49,000 riders would use the three stations daily.  Yet they spent the year refusing to release the Quarterly Service Provided Report that would have reported the lack of access limited ridership to far less than predicted.  

 

However, the expectation had been that the lack of data was mitigated by Sound Transit plans for East Link revenue service in June would demonstrate public transit problems dwarfing Northgate’s.  Thus, the most consequential Sound Transit 2023 event was the final decision to delay the Link debut from June 30, 2023, until 2025 to redo the rail attachments.  It delayed demonstrating the folly of confiscating the I-90 bridge center roadway for light rail to replace bus routes; precluding two-way BRT only with 10 times the capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost and using light rail to replace buses.

 

It also delayed demonstrating the folly of Sound Transit choosing to route the East Link trains through DSTT rather than terminating them at CID station. Eastside riders needing to go beyond CID could transfer to trains through DSTT.  Terminating East Link at CID would end limiting it to half the DSTT train capacity and operation could be scheduled to meet I-90 bridge public transit demand.  Terminating it and West Seattle Link at CID would also end the need for a second tunnel.

 

The bottom line is 2023 was a year of delay in demonstrating Sound Transit’s plan for a light rail spine won’t reduce congestion into Seattle.  They spent much of  2022 trying to find a CEO willing to implement “Voter Approved” extensions and ended  2023 with the need to find someone else willing to do so.

 

 

A Likely Reason Why ST CEO Timms is Leaving

Two December 16th Traffic Lab articles exemplify Sound Transit  Board incompetence and the Seattle Times abiding that incompetence. One was the Board approving flat fares for 2024.  

The flat fare decision was the result of the Board choosing to direct Sound Transit to “study” flat fares.  Purportedly in response to concerns with distance-based fares for those failing to tap off would pay to the end of the route.  Yet their own data showed only 3.6 % paid fees over $3.00 suggesting failing to tap off was not a significant problem. 

The  flat fare decision will result in 86.5% of commuters paying more in fare, raising fares for the 25% of commuters currently paying $2.25 to $3.00.  Riders from Capitol Hill to Westlake or Stadium to CID with less than a mile commute will be required to pay the increased fare. Yet, commuters riding the 17-mile Lynnwood Link route to Westlake, who currently pay $3.25, will also pay only $3.00. A fare that will allow them to go beyond Westlake to SeaTac. 

It's not clear what Community Transit riders, who currently pay $4.25 for the commute into and out of Seattle will pay when required to transfer to Lynnwood Link.  One option could be they’ll continue to pay the $4.25 fare into Seattle but only $3.00 for the return. 

Whatever that decision, requiring 86.5% of commuters to pay more and the remainder less because some fail to tap off belies any claim for equity; fares based on the cost of providing that service. The Traffic Lab article abided the inequity.

 The second example was the article indicated a failure to recognize a likely reason Timms decided to leave now.  She recognized the 2024 East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debuts will demonstrate Sound Transit’s failed approach to public transit. 

That the Starter Line’s lack of access and the need to transfer from light rail to and from buses at South Bellevue to commute into and out of Seattle will limit ridership to a fraction of projections.  That the cost of operating 2-car trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day will dwarf any fare box revenue. 

The Lynnwood Link debut will demonstrate extending light rail tracks does nothing to increase train capacity.  That 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.  Using that capacity to replace bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and access for current riders.

Even Sound Transit recognizes the resultant “crowding” with vague plans to continue some bus routes into Seattle. The likely result will be commuters dissuaded from public transit by the need to transfer for the route into Seattle and the chaos at tunnel stations for the return trip during peak operation.  Again the high 4-car train costs during off-peak operation will dwarf daily fare box revenue.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab articles provide two reasons CEO Timms is leaving.  The first is her objection to the Board insisting on a fare structure requiring Capitol Hill riders pay the same fare as Lynnwood riders, especially since those riders will reduce access at Capitol Hill.  

 

However, the more “likely” reason is she no longer wants to be the captain of a “sinking ship”.  That next year’s Starter Link and Lynnwood Link debut will demonstrate the Sound Transit Board’s flawed approach to public transit.   The December 16^th Traffic Lab article detailing the huge payment she’s getting indicates neither the Board nor Traffic Lab recognize that probability.

Next Years Starter Line and Lynnwood Link Results

The October release of the Sound Transit 2024 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget includes the following excerpt in introduction:

Sound Transit’s $3 billion proposed 2024 budget highlights the agency in the early stages of an historic era, as our mission to connect more people to more places across the Puget Sound 

Yet Sound Transit’s 2024 plan will do nothing to “connect more people to more places”.  Connecting more people requires providing more riders with access.  Yet Sound Transit’s Northgate Link October 2021 demonstrated the lack of access limited ridership to a fraction of their 41,000 to 49,000 predictions. Many if not most of those riders previously rode buses, so don’t qualify as “more people”.  (They no longer release the quarterly service provided reports that would have detailed the result)  

 

Starter Line access, except for parking at Redmond T/C and Bel-Red/130^th station, is limited to those within walking distance of 5 stations along route, far less than what’s currently available with Rapid Ride B and ST550. Again, many if not most previously rode those routes into Bellevue and beyond to Seattle. Very few of the Starter Line of Sound Transit’s projected 7000 riders will be “more people”.

 

Like Starter Line most Lynnwood Link riders won’t be “more people”.  Sound Transit reduced its 2016 prediction of 35,000 to 57,000 added riders, to 25,300 to 34,200.  Yet, many if not most Link riders will be those who previously rode ST 510-513 and Community Transit 400 routes into Seattle.

 

The budget introduction also included the following:

Our work and our major achievements throughout 2023 set the stage for our ambitious 2024 roll-out and for our continued expansion under the voter-approved ST3 plan, the largest mass transit expansion in the country. 

The budget included a Summary by Mode with the following plan for Link Light Rail:

The first phase of the new 2-Line, providing services on the Eastside, including 8 new stations, is expected to open in Spring 2024; along with the extension of the 1-Line to Lynnwood, including 4 new stations expected to open in Fall 2024, both of which will increase the existing track alignment to over 40 miles. 

Yet Sound Transit’s Development Plan 2023-2028 includes the following for 2024.

 

Evaluate routing for Routes 510, 511, 512 ,513: -  Supports expansion of 1 Line

 

That by 2028 Sound Transit plans to “Evaluate” 22 ST Express Bus Routes.  The 2024 budget’s chart “System expansion and current service” describes future ST Express bus routes as “re-evaluated annually.”  

 

The bottom line is, while Sound Transit is creating the country’s largest light rail transit system expansion, the extensions do nothing to increase light rail capacity.  Thus, using the extensions to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity, the more the lost bus routes, the more the lost ability to move people.  

 

Next year’s Starter Line and Lynnwood operations will be the next demonstration of the folly of Sound Transit’s approach to implementing “voter approved” light rail extensions without adding access.