WSDOT Compounds I-405 2-HOT Lane Debacle

As expected, the Seattle Times Oct 18^th Traffic Lab article, “State panel clears way for hikes in tolls for fast lanes” detailed the response to the request in an earlier Traffic Lab article.  That the WSDOT intended to eventually implement two toll lanes on I-405 between Lynnwood and Renton.  The problem is neither article acknowledges that the WSDOT plan to implement tolls on two lanes is more about increasing revenue than in reducing travel times.  

 

Tolls reduce multilane freeway travel times by maximizing the number of vehicles per hour (VPH) on one of the lanes they reduce traffic and travel times on the remaining lanes.  Studies have shown adjusting tolls to maintain 2000 VPH hour will maximize  traffic and assures 45 mph HOV lane speeds, minimizing GP lane congestion and travel time. 

 

Tolls avoid the problem when the number of carpoolers exceeds the 2000 VPH, slowing the HOV lanes. That off-peak operation limiting HOV to carpoolers wastes capacity that could be used to reduce GP lane congestion and travel time. During peak commute the WSDOT could raise tolls on one lane to whatever it takes to maintain 2000 VPH.  During off-peak they could lower tolls to attract more riders to maintain 2000 VPH and reduce congestion and travel times for all the freeway lanes.  

 

The WSDOT approach has been to use tolls to provide revenue.  For years they've imposed tolls on a second lane between Bothell and Bellevue that's increased congestion and travel times on the remaining  three GP lanes.  Then used the increased traffic and resulting congestion to justify cost of the tolls. Their plan to impose HOT on a second of four lanes for the rest of the route, taking away one of three GP lanes, is especially egregious.  Again, the  limited number of commuters willing to pay the fees reduces traffic on both HOT lanes below the 2000 VPH optimum; wasting capacity that could’ve been used to reduce GP lane traffic, congestion and travel time.  

 

The result has been less traffic raised HOV lane speeds higher than 45 mph but increased congestion and travel times on GP lanes.   The higher the tolls, the fewer those paying, the greater the GP congestion, and the longer their commute. 

 

The bottom line is adjusting the tolls to achieve the 2000 VPH on an HOV lane during both peak and off-peak operation is  an effective way to reduce GP lane congestion.  The WSDOT will rarely achieve that level if they impose HOT on two lanes, wasting that capacity. The Seattle Times Traffic Lab needs to recognize WSDOT plan to increase the tolls on the two lanes only compounds the debacle by reducing those willing to pay, increasing HOV velocity and GP lane travel time.

Kate Riley Still Doesn’t Get It

The 10/12/23 Seattle Times Opinion Page Editorial calling me “a perennial candidate whose fixation with Sound Transit makes him unfit to serve a community whose needs go far beyond public transit” exemplifies more than a decade of an editor, Kate Riley, who simply “doesn’t get it”.  

My candidacies have been “perennial” because for more than a decade they’ve been an attempt to make up for the Seattle Times obsequious support for Sound Transit. They’ve never been attempts to win but to use the Voters’ Pamphlet to reach the widest area possible that year, from Bellevue City Council to U.S Senate.

 

That my “fixation” with Sound Transit is due to Kate Riley’s refusal to recognize Sound Transit’s failed approach to public transit. It began in 2012 when I filed for 48^th District after three years of presentations to Bellevue City Council failed to convince them to disallow 10 permits Sound Transit needed to route light rail through Bellevue. 

 

My “candidate interview” with Kate Riley did not go well as she cut it short when I persisted with claims 48^th district residents were more concerned with the area's congestion  than the McCleary school funding issue.  She’s declined to interview me during my 10 subsequent candidacies.

 

She doesn’t "get it" that my “fixation” with Sound Transit is due to it having a Board of elected officials who have no idea of what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit’s goal should be to provide the transit needed for those who don’t want to drive and to reduce the congestion for those who do drive. Yet the Sound Transit Board plan is to implement “Voter Approved”  extensions that won't do either.  They don’t increase the capacity of the trains or add to the parking needed for access; they only increase the operating cost.  

 

She doesn’t get it that lack of capacity and access belies any claim the extensions will reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion.  That off-peak operating costs will dwarf any fare-box revenue. Using light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce freeway GP lane congestion.   That former bus riders added by the extensions will reduce access for current light rail riders.

 

She has ignored years of attempts to persuade Seattle Times to include an outside audit of Sound Transit policies that would have verified or refuted the concerns. Instead, Sound Transit has been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway precluding two-way BRT with 10 times the capacity, ten years sooner at 1/10^th the cost. They've compounded that failure by using the $3.6B East Link to replace I-90 bridge bus routes. Forcing bus riders to transfer on Mercer Island to and from light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle will likely dissuade many current transit commuters 

 

She has abided Sound Transit’s decision to no longer release quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports.  They would have detailed the results of the October 2021 Northgate Link debut.   That the lack of access limited ridership to a fraction of Seattle Times claims for it being “transit transformed” with 42,000 to 49,000 riders added by Link’s three stations.  The need to replace track attachments has delayed East Link demonstrating similar results and what can be expected with future “voter approved” extensions.  Thus, next year's East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood debuts will be the next to demonstrate the result.

 

Her “Opinion Page” has abided Sound Transit  continuing with plans to spend $13B boring a second tunnel under Seattle with 5 new stations for access.  Sound Transit's plan to locate 2 of those stations north and south of existing CID station ignores more than a year of public requests to locate a station near CID. 

 

An Opinion Page editorial initially supported the “near” CID station.  Yet they haven't asked Sound Transit to consider modifying the existing CID for use as a terminus for East Link and West Seattle extensions and existing Westlake station for Ballard Link terminus.  Use the existing DSTT for those who need to go beyond CID and Westlake. Saving billions and years of disruption in Seattle as a result.  

 

Kate Riley’s opinion page has also abided Sound Transit using the ST3 approval to spend $54B from 2017 to 2041 to justify spending $150B from 2017 to 2046.  That their 2023 Financial Plan & Adopted Budget ends 2046, $24B in debt, $1B in debt service payments, $3.8B in “expenditures”; and ST3 taxes that voters approved ending in 2041.  Yet obligating them to pay for far into the future without any vote.

 

The bottom line is she still doesn't recognize the results of a decade of Sound Transit approach to public transit with an incompetent board of directors.  A competent transit board would have routed light rail to West Seattle rather than across I-90 Bridge, terminated Central Link light rail at SeaTac and UW stadium, and expedited light rail to Ballard.   Instead, the board insists on spending billions and years on a second tunnel to allow eastside and West Seattle commuters to transit directly to Everett and Ballard commuters to SeaTac. 

 

A competent transit board would have opted for implementing BRT routes along limited access I-90 and I-5 lanes to dedicated stops on an elongated bus-only 4^thAve T/C.  SR520 commuters would benefit from using a UW Stadium T/C as interface for BRT routes in both directions.  

 

Sound Transit has already been allowed to spend billions and years on voter approved extensions that will do nothing to reduce area congestion and leave the area with huge operating costs.  Those billions and years are only a down payment on future Sound Transit plans to spend $150B on the “largest transit system expansion in the country”. 

 

Again, all my candidacies' “fixation on Sound Transit” have been to use the Voters’ Pamphlet to inform the area about that future.  Kate Riley’s failure to “get it” seems to be a major reason the Seattle Times continues abetting it.  It's time she considers Sound Transit worthy of scrutiny.  The Starter Line and Lynnwood extension debuts next year will be the next demonstration of that need. 

 

ST August Agency Progress Report Starter Line Debacle Details

Sound Transit uses monthly Agency Progress Reports to summarize projects and major contracts status, risk, and performance of capital projects. The front page of the Oct 4^th release of the August report heralded "The Sound Transit Board approves Spring 2024 opening of the East Link Starter Line”. The report’s Executive Summary included the following:

Sound Transit Board approves Spring 2024 opening for eight 2 Line Stations 

At its August meeting, the Sound Transit Board approved opening the Link 2 Line with passenger service on an initial eight- station segment between South Bellevue and Redmond Technology stations in the Spring of 2024. 

As proposed, and opening prior to the full 10-Station 2 Line which connects Seattle and the Eastside with track running on the I-90 floating bridge, the East Link Starter Line will run with two-car trains every 10 minutes, 16 hours a day. The final service level will be approved by the Sound Transit Board as part of the 2024 Service Plan. This action is expected in October. 

The Board’s action included provisions to meet ridership demand on the 1 Line, including maximizing peak-hour service, adding bus service in Snohomish County and support for Lynnwood passengers until the opening of the full East Link Extension. 

Existing ST Express and King County Metro routes including Route 550, B Line, and other local routes are anticipated to continue operating on their current routes until the full 2 Line opens in 2025. 

The Sound Transit Board authorized up to $43 million from the existing East Link Extension $3.68 billion budget to fund the activities necessary to open the East Link Starter Line in Spring 2024. 

The East Link Starter Line began with an August 30^th, 2022, Seattle Times Opinion by Claudia Balducci, Sound Transit System Expansion Committee chair, "Don't delay opening of the Bellevue-to-Redmond light rail starter line”.   Sound Transit CEO Julie Timm’s December 8^th post, “East Link opening timeframe update” provided details and schedule.

 

The August  report raises several concerns.   For example, the decision to attract ridership with a schedule of 2-car trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day will add a substantial cost. Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs as ~$30 per mile. Each 2-car-train round trip on the 7-mile extension will cost $840.   The operating schedule requires 96 round trips or $80,640 a day.  

 

Another concern is, except for parking at Redmond T/C and Bel-Red/130^th station, access to the Starter Line is limited to those within walking distance of the “eight-station segment”.  A deterrent for many potential transit riders. Especially since the report confirms CEO Timm’s blog statement "Existing bus routes will continue" operating on their current routes until the full 2-Line opens in 2025.  

Those riders will still have access to multiple stops within walking distance of where they live along the entire 7-mile link. All providing access at a tiny fraction of the cost of a single light rail station. They also benefit from not having to transfer to and from route 550 at South Bellevue for the commute into and out of Seattle. 

 

However, the Executive Summary report indicates that access will end when the “full 2 Line opens in 2025“.  It’s unclear when in 2025 since the Progress Report’s "Link Light Rail Program Overview" for the East Link Extension includes a Recovery Plan Float to RSD that extends to the end of the year.  A Risk Management issue that may impact schedule is “significant contractor claims on E130 and E750” dealing with replacing track attachments and installing power lines for trains.  Whatever the date, the lack of access with dissuade many commuters.

 

The Progress Report announcement, “The Sound Transit Board has authorized $43 million to fund the activities necessary to open the East Link Starter Line” reflects a “substantial” increase from an earlier $6 million cost estimate. Those “opening activities” must really be something. 

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s August Agency Progress Report is a recipe for Starter Line “opening festivities” whose cost and subsequent daily operating costs will dwarf the farebox revenue from ridership limited by the option commuters have to use existing buses.  It’s when they lose that option, they and all the other I-90 corridor commuters will experience the folly of allowing Sound Transit to confiscate I-90 Bridge center roadway for East Link and use it to replace bus routes into Seattle.

 

Limited Benefits of TAG and Consultant Advice

The September 14, 2023, Sound Transit Board’s System Expansion Committee agenda included an update on their response to recommendations from a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and private consultant at the March 2^nd Executive Committee Meeting.  The recommendations had included the need for better relations between staff and board, allow lower-level decision making, align key procedures with industry best practices, strengthen and enforce an agency betterment policy, and engage the FTA as a delivery partner. 

The ST Staff’s update included a pie chart with the status of 22 actions in response to the recommendations.   Two were complete, four hadn’t started, seven needed board guidance and the rest were in progress.  All the actions dealt with how to improve the process for implementing the product, voter approved extensions. No one questioned whether the voter approved extensions would reduce congestion into Seattle.  Instead, the Board decided to continue funding the TAG and private consultant next year.

 

 A competent transit TAG and consultant would recognize the problems with the voter approved extensions.  For example, the October 2021 Northgate Link debut demonstrated the lack of access limited the ridership added by the Link's three stations.  While Sound Transit refuses to release quarterly “Service Provided Performance Report” they still don’t “get it” that lack of access limited riders added by Link to a fraction of 41,000 to 49,000 they’d projected.  The East Link debut, which would have confirmed the problem, has been delayed by the need to redo track attachments.   

 

The Lynnwood Link debut in late 2024 will demonstrate 4-car light rail trains on the "voter approved" extension lacked both the access and capacity needed to replace bus routes into Seattle.  They don’t have the capacity to accommodate the number of transit riders needed to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.  Replacing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.  

 

Riders the extensions do add during peak commute will severely limit, potentially end access for current riders. Costs during off-peak operation will necessitate an increase in tolls or costs that dwarf farebox revenue.

 

The bottom line is, whatever improvements in the process of implementing the voter approved extension to Lynnwood will be dwarfed by the fact ridership was far less than predicted, costs were far higher, current riders lost access, and I-5 congestion into Seattle wasn’t reduced.