The ST/WSDOT I-405 Debacle Continues

The video of the July 27^th Sound Transit Board Meeting typifies the actions of a transit organization willing to spend countless millions on projects that do nothing to increase transit ridership or reduce roadway congestion

 

In this case it’s their approach to delivering on the Sound Transit 3 proposal voters approved in 2016 for I-405 Bus Rapid Transit. They intend to spend hundreds of millions on a transit system that won't increase ridership or reduce I-405 congestion.  

 

What voters approved was detailed as Key Attributes in a Sound Transit 3, July 1, 2016, ST3 Map.  The 38-mile, 11 station route between Lynnwood and Burien was costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and was projected to have 15,000—18,000 riders when completed in 2024.  

 

The ST3 Map Details PDF included a Key Attributes list of 20 Project Elements.  it included a 600-stall parking garage at Kingsgate P&R, 200 stalls at NE 44^th St in Renton, and a 700-stall garage at South Renton.  That 34 coaches would be purchased with plans for 10-minute headways between trains during peak operation.

 

The Key Attributes also included the following as one of the 10 “Not Included” projects: 

 

Operations and maintenance facility not included

 

Yet the Sound Transit Board in the July 27^th meeting approved Resolution No. R2023-17 to spend $499,500.000 on a Bus Base North.  The SR522 Stride adds 14 coaches to the 34 planned for I-405 BRT. Thus most of the facility's 120-bus capacity will be used by Snohomish Community Transit to service SCT buses. . 

 

The meeting also included a Program Review detailing that what was promised in 2016 for 2024 will be delayed until Q3/2028 for S1 South and Q2/2029 for S2 North. That the I-405 portion, costed in 2016 as $812--$869M (2014$) had increased to $1,769M in 2023.  

 

What was also not discussed in the July 27^th meeting was the following as listed as “Not Included” in ST3

 

Operations beyond the I-405 and SR 518 BRT corridor

 

The ST3 map and Sound Transit Board version of I-405 BRT didn't include those currently riding ST560 from South Bellevue P&R to SeaTac with stops at Newport, Kennydale, and Renton T/Cs.  Those using ST532 from Alderwood Mall and ST535 from Everett Station, South Everett, and Ash Way P&R to and from Bellevue T/C and route through downtown Bellevue were also not included.

 

The Board also chose to reject what was included in the ST3 map, the parking at Kingsgate, 44^th St in Renton, and South Renton.   Instead funding a $300M NE 85^th station with no parking and millions to improve access to existing parking.   

 

For example, the Board approved Motion No M2023-55 to provide up to $74.8M of up to $215.99M for WSOT to, “Design-Build Delivery of the I-405 BRT Brickyard to SR 527 improvement Project”. Yet, the station only has 443 stalls. Just part of $1,269M the Board authorized with Resolution No R23023-18.  The lack of parking for access to I-405 BRT will limit ridership to a tiny fraction of the 15,000-18,000 claimed in 2016.

 

Any benefit from I-405 BRT travel time reduction from no longer stopping at some stations and improving access at others is dependent on the “Issues & Risks” in the 2016 ST3 Map Detailed PDF. 

 

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system

 

The problem being the WSDOT I-405 express toll lane system requires 2-person carpools transfer to GP lanes, or like SOV drivers, pay HOT fees to travel on one of two HOV lanes.   The increased GP lane congestion increases the number of those willing to pay the fees. During peak commute, the large numbers of those willing to pay WSDOT's maximum  $10 fee increases HOV travel times for those paying the fees and BRT buses. Especially between Bellevue and Renton where WSDOT 2-lane HOT lanes will leave only 2 GP lanes. The increased travel times dwarf any savings from Sound Transit improving access to stations as well as those paying the fees. 

Both HOV and GP lane travel times could be reduced if WSDOT was "persuading" to limit HOT to one lane with fees raised to limit those willing to pay for faster commutes.  (Typically limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour assures 45mph)  The additional lane reduces congestion for GP lane commuters.

The bottom line is the July 27^th Sound Transit Board meeting was another example of incompetence.  They approved plans to spend $500M on a Bus Base North that wasn’t included in ST 3 and its 120-bus capacity will be used primarily to maintain SCT buses.  They refused to increase access by deleting the parking detailed in ST3 map PDF.

 

Instead. choosing to pay $74.8M as part of WSDOT plan to spend $216M to improve access to a Brickyard Station with 443 stalls and $300M on a NE 85^th station with no stalls at all.Their I-405 BRT route doesn’t include Everett or SeaTac and many stops between with thousands of current riders.

 

Yet any potential I-405 travel time reduction will be dwarfed by the increased congestion if WSDOT implements HOT on 2 HOV lanes.  If so, the ST/WSDOT I-405 debacle continues.

 

ST Ballard Link Bus/Train Transfer Incompetence

The previous post detailed the absurdity of Sound Transit plans next year to use Starter Line to replace ST550 routes from Bellevue to South Bellevue P&R and Lynnwood extension to replace ST510 and STC 400 riders into Seattle.  This post details how Sound Transit plans to require King County Metro riders transfer to Ballard Link for their commute into and out of Seattle carry that incompetence to a whole new level. 

The July 13^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee meeting agenda included the following as Reports to the Committee:

a.                  Ballard Link Extension-Denny Station Status Report 

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The Public Comment period earlier in the agenda was largely used to express opposition to Sound Transit current plans for Denny Station that required closing Westlake to traffic for four years. Sound Transit’s presentation concluded with a decision to shift Denny Station west, leaving Westlake Ave substantially open and a $440M cost savings due to consolidation of Denny and Harrison Stations.

That additional studies were needed to assess the Performance, (ridership, transit integration and passenger experience) for what was called the South Lake Union Station (SLUS).  The additional ridership assessment included Sound Transit’s decision to use bus-rail transfers to provide 32% of total boardings at station. That 80% of all bus-rail transfers were from E-Line, Route 5, Route 62, and Route 8/11.  Presumably meaning they intended to terminate those four routes as well as those that made up the other 20% at SLUS. 

Thus, all those riding on E-Line from Aurora Village, Route 5 from Shoreline Community College, or Route 62 from Sand Point and Route 8/11 from Seattle Center through Madison Park, or all those on the remaining 20% would all be forced to transfer to Ballard Link for the commute into and out of downtown Seattle.  

Presumably all those on the routes beyond SLUS would lose access to bus routes into Seattle.  Those forced to transfer would be limited to new Westlake Station for egress and access rather than the choice of multiple stops in Seattle.  A clear recipe for fewer transit riders into and out of Seattle.

The bottom line is the video of the July 13^th System Expansion Committee meeting exemplifies a Sound Transit and Board that fails to recognize forcing commuters to transfer to and from light rail is a disincentive for public transit.  They’ve ignored Northgate Link results that demonstrated that reality.  The East Link debut which would have confirmed those results this year in June has been delayed for two years.  Thus, it will take until next year’s Starter Link and Lynnwood Link debut to demonstrate that result. 

 

Another demonstration of  Sound Transit and Board incompetence

Starter Line and Lynnwood Link "Benefits"

The previous post detailed why Sound Transit and the Board needed to do a cost/benefit analysis of the Everett Link extension before proceeding with plans to implement the extension in 2037.  This post details why Sound Transit plan to implement an East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood Link extension in 2024 will demonstrate problems with Sound Transit’s approach to providing the benefits. 

 

The cost part of the problem is Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs as ~$30 per mile, $60 per mile for each car for the round trip.  The 7-mile Starter Line will cost $420 per car for the trip.  

 

The June 8^th Sound Transit Expansion Committee detailed plans for Starter Line operation of 2-car trains with 10-minute headways, for 14, and potential 16 hours, 84-96 round trips.  Thus, in 2024, the Starter Line debut will add $70,560, and potentially $80,640 per day to operating costs.

 

The June 8^th meeting also detailed Sound Transit’s plan for the 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension in 2024.  That a mix of 3 or 4 car trains, would be routed every 8 minutes for 20 hours. The 150 round trips will add  $229,500 to $306,000 to daily Line 1 Link operating costs. 

 

Sound Transit’s problem is the lack of benefits.   For example, Starter Line access, except for parking at Redmond T/C and Bel-Red/130^th station, is limited to those within walking distance of 5 stations along route. A fraction of the number of stops for access along Rabid Route B into Bellevue and on ST550 to South Bellevue P&R. 

 

Sound Transit compounds that problem by forcing Starter Line riders to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle.  Thus, any benefit from adding Starter Line from Redmond T/C to Bellevue will be limited at best.  The lost access in Bellevue and the need to transfer to and from bus routes are a strong disincentive to even ride transit.

 

Sound Transit's claim for Lynnwood Link “benefit", 37,000 to 57,000 riders, is limited by the fact it only increases access by adding 500 new parking stalls at the Lynnwood T/C and North and South Shoreline Stations. (It does include spending $240B for a NE130th St Infill Station by 2026 but doesn’t include any parking for access.)  Instead choosing to require commuters with access to bus routes to transfer to light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle. (It's not clear how STC riders will pay fares)

 

It's the same approach Sound Transit used for the Northgate extension.  They terminated ST512 and 513 at Northgate, ST522 at Roosevelt, and replaced KCM41 into the city.  However, they continued to route ST510 into Seattle during the peak commute with an additional stop at Montlake Terrace. 

 

Still, Sound Transit, relying on those with “non-motorized access (i.e. Parking) predicted the extensions three stations would add between 41,000-49,000 riders.  However, Sound Transit refuses to release quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports with the results of the October 2021 Northgate debut.  

 

It would have “likely” included data showing riders added by each of the Link’s three stations was a fraction of projections.  How many riders chose ST512, ST513, and ST522 routes that require they transfer compared to ST510 that continued into and out of Seattle. 

 

Ridership on both the Starter Line and Lynnwood extension will depend on the disincentive to transfer.   Starter Line riders will be forced to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle. The Lynnwood extension operation will require all ST510 and Snohomish Community Transit SCT400 riders transfer to the link for the commute into and out of Seattle.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has limited light rail “benefits” by failing to add parking for access.  The Northgate Link demonstrated the  “benefits” of ridership, even for those with access, are diminished by the need to transfer between bus routes and trains.  Next year the Starter Line and Lynnwood extensions will "likely" confirm that result, negating much of the purported "benefits'.