2022 Another Year of Sound Transit Incompetence

 This blog ends 2022 like it began with a post declaring it was another year of Sound Transit’s failure to recognize the light rail spine won’t reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion into Seattle.  The year began with the need to find a someone to replace Peter Rogoff as CEO.  It ended with the new CEO Julie Timm’s December 8th blog post, “East Link opening time frame update". A response to the need to “remediate non-conforming direct fixation track plinths”.  Sound Transit verbiage for replacing faulty track attachments on the Link's extension.   

It was a year that began with a Jan 4th release of an Agency Progress Report claiming the East Gate “Substantial Completion Date” was 161 calendar dates later than the contractor milestone date of December 13, 2021, ended with a December 6th release with the completion date 444 calendar dates later than a May 13, 2022, contractor milestone date.  Still, without an update on time required to redo track attachment.  Timm’s December 8th post delayed the revenue service date from 30-June-23 to Spring 2025.  

 The year that began with a Jan 4th Agency Progress Report that the Federal Way progress schedule “is currently under review” was “still under review” in the Dec 6 release.  What changed was the “2017-2046 Sources and Uses of Funds” increased from $138.0B to $149.1B between the 2022 and 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budgets, nearly triple the $54B voters approved in 2016. And a year  that the  "Principle Balance on Tax-Based Deb" increased from $24B to $29B ignoring the fact that the ST3 taxes is based on ends in 2941.

 What didn’t change between the yearly budgets was the delusional claim Link ridership would increase from 20 million annually to 150 million in 2046.  They continued to ignore the fact that light rail spine extensions do nothing to increase light rail train capacity and the need to increase access to transit. They refused to release the quarterly Service Delivery Performance Reports that demonstrated that failure when Northgate Link’s three stations attracted only a fraction of the 42,000 to 49,000 predicted.    

The year included Sound Transit’s attempts to make up for the East Link delay with an East Link Starter Line alongside ST 550 to South Bellevue P&R.  They failed to consider most Bellevue commuters will “likely” choose ST550 because its route through downtown Bellevue has better access and there’s no need to transfer at P&R.  That even fewer returning commuters will choose to transfer to light rail at P&R for the trip into Bellevue. They could have used the delay the to allow East Link trains to terminate at Chinatown, but continued the plan to route to Mariner P&R  as Link 2 Line.

The bottom line is 2022 was a year where Sound Transit managed to hire a new transit CEO willing to continue implementing “voter approved” extensions for light rail trains that won’t reduce congestion. That it was also the year Sound Transit delayed the most blatant example of that failure, the East Link extension, from June 2023 to Spring 2025.   

 It ended with a Julie Timm Dec 8th post “An update on Link projects in construction” detailing the option of implementing the Starter Line first before Lynnwood Link and a TBD Federal Way start date.  That both options “face significant challenges and risks” but left it up to the board to decide in January.

Seattle Times Concedes “Voter Approved” Extensions Won’t Reduce Congestion

The previous post concluded Sound Transit CEO Timm will continue what she was hired to do, implement “Voter Approved” light rail extensions for as long as the Seattle Times enables them. This post responds to the paper’s request for a headline with one that could end their enabling: “Voter Approved Extensions Won’t Reduce I-5 and I-90 Congestion.”    

If they do publish the article, it’s been a long time in coming.  The paper’s ignored a decade of this blog urging they include a performance audit of Sound Transit’s light rail extension in their list of 10 priorities for legislators. Even a cursory audit would have concluded the “voter approved” extensions won’t reduce congestion into Seattle. 

  

They do nothing to increase parking for access to transit,  the number of trains per hour, the number of cars per train, or the number of riders in each car.  Thus, the extensions can’t change the fact that 4-car light rail trains lack the transit ridership capacity needed to reduce I-5 and I-90 peak hour congestion. 

 Sound Transit’s responds to the need for light rail riders by using the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle. Reducing bus routes reduces transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce GP lane congestion. The former bus riders also reduce the access for current Link riders and exacerbate lack-of-capacity problem during peak hour commute. The longer the extensions, the more bus riders added, the greater their loss of access, and, the greater the costs of providing the service.  

There wouldn’t have been the “Voter Approved” extensions without Seattle’s 70% ST3 approval.  It was far less popular outside Seattle since King County approval was only 58%. Pierce and Snohomish counties combined, where much of the money will be spent, voted 53% to reject it.     

The bottom line is an article with the headline “Voter Approved Extensions Won’t Reduce Congestion” could inform readers light rail spine extensions won’t have the capacity to reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion into Seattle.  That the “voter approved” extensions will reduce access to transit for those in Seattle who voted to approve them.  That Sound Transit should divert light rail spine funding to Ballard and West Seattle extensions for those who made ST3 funding possible.. 

Those living in Sound Transit service area deserve the headline and article from Seattle Times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Sound Transit CEO’s Report Card

 The previous post proposed Sound Transit could use the time needed to redo East Link track attachments to allow the Link’s train routes to terminate at Chinatown station.  This post offers a “Report Card” on the new Sound Transit CEO, Julie Timm’s, response to the need to redo the Link's attachments on her blog post and during the December 8th Sound Transit meetings.  

On the plus side is her recognition Sound Transit problems with East Link and Tacoma Dome Link extensions have resulted in her requesting authorization to contract with HDR Engineering for construction management service.  The need to spend up to $118M and $93M respectively on the two extensions indicates she recognizes Sound Transit’s engineering oversight problems.  

On the minus side is her December 8th blog post, “East Link opening timeframe update” continues Sound Transit’s plan to implement “voter approved” extensions.   CEO Timm apparently doesn’t acknowledge extending light rail tracks do nothing to increase the number of transit vehicles per hour or the number of riders in each vehicle.  That the major result of the extensions is increased operating costs. 

The result of the track attachment redo is a two-year delay in East Link demonstrating Sound Transit’s biggest debacle.  They should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for a transit system that limits East Side and South Seattle capacity to half the DSTT trains.  That using the trains to replace cross lake bus routes limits transit capacity and does nothing to reduce I-90 corridor congestion. 

Instead, the Lynnwood extension debut in either summer/fall or fall/winter 2024 will demonstrate the problem with “voter approved” extensions along I-5 corridor.   Most of the corridor commuters with access to transit have already been required to transfer from bus routes to the Northgate Link for the ride into and out of Seattle.  While some of them will use Lynnwood extension instead, the number of commuters added will be a fraction of Sound Transit’s 37,000 to 57,000 predicted.  Yet the 8.5-mile extension will add ~$2000 for the round trip from Northgate, doubling round trip cost from Westlake.     

 CEO Timm also gets a failing grade for her blog post proposal to implement Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Chair Claudia Balducci’s proposal for a East Link Starter Line alongside ST 550 bus route to South Bellevue P&R.   Bellevue commuters will “likely” choose ST 550 because it’s route though downtown Bellevue has better access and there’s no need to transfer at P&R.  Even fewer returning commuters will choose to transfer to light rail at South Bellevue for the trip into Bellevue.  

The bottom line is CEO Timm’s blog post reflects the fact she was hired because of her willingness to implement “voter approved” extensions.  The Seattle Times has abetted Sound Transit refusal to release the Northgate Link results demonstrating the "voter approved" extensions lacked the access and capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. 

The need to redo the East Link track attachments has resulted in CEO Timm's blog post delaying the next demonstration from June 2023 to at least summer 2024 Lynnwood Link debut.  Continuing what Sound Transit hired her to do for as long as the Seattle Times enables them.

Sound Transit Can Still Mitigate East Link Debacle.

The December 8th Sound Transit email “East Link Extension Project Update” continues the Link debacle with an “East Link opening timeframe update”.  It refers to a blog post by CEO Julie Timm detailing their current response to Sound Transit hiring a construction company that failed to properly install light rail tracks.  A failure Sound Transit first acknowledged with the following in the April Agency Progress Report:   

Contract E130-- Seattle to South Bellevue:  

Current Progress                                                                                                 West Segment:  Progress non-conforming tract direct fixation concrete plinth remediation                                                                                                       Center Segment:  Progress non-conforming tract direct fixation concrete plinth remediation.                                                                                                         East Segment: progress non-conforming track direct fixation concrete plinth remediation.  

Schedule Summary                                                                                           Within the E130 contract schedule, the critical path is driven by track remediation scope and cathodic protection on the floating bridge  

That Next Period’s Activities for all three segments included “direct fixation plinth remediation”.  

Similar concerns were included in subsequent monthly progress reports with no indications of progress.  The Current Progress activity in the December 6th release of the October report continues with “ongoing non-conforming track remediation”.   The schedule summary “The contractor needs to correct non-conforming scopes of work” with no estimate of completion.  

Typical of Sound Transit they call the contractor's need to replace faulty track attachments as “non-conforming track direct fixation remediation”.  The December 8th CEO blog post refers to the contractor's flawed attachments as a “project construction challenge”.   

 The email details the need to “ensure the work performed does not damage the bridge structure”.  That Sound Transit needs to “inspect all the work” and the staff needs “increased training to ensure they understand the required tolerances and scopes of work being installed”.  Apparently concerned their contractor still needed Sound Transit to oversee the “remediation”.  Not much of a contractor “endorsement”.  

One would have thought an April Agency Progress Report problem would, by December, have some “remediation” date and a recommendation as to how to proceed.  Instead, the blog post update “Possible project opening timeframes” delays East Link from July 2023 to Spring 2025.  It suggests an East Link Starter Line in 2024, problems with the two sequencing options, and “the intention to ask the Board for direction as soon as January”.    

The bottom line is the need to redo track attachments will delay demonstrating Sound Transit should have never been allowed to install light rail tracks on I-90 Bridge.  However,  the delay also allows them to mitigate that debacle by using the delay to implement terminating East Link trains at Chinatown station.  

The entire Sound Transit service area would benefit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Year of ST Approving Financial Plan and Proposed Budget Folly

The agenda for the Dec 8th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Meeting includes the following: 

6. Business Items

For committee final action:

B. Motion No. M2022-95: Recommending that the portions of the Proposed 2023 Budget and Transit improvement Plan reviewed by the System Expansion Committee be forwarded by the Finance and Audit Committee to the Board with a do-pass recommendation.

The motion personifies a decade of a Sound Transit Board made up of “well minded” elected officials with no understanding of what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit should be used to provide transit for those who can’t drive or choose not to drive to destinations and to reduce congestion for those who do.  That doing so requires providing those seeking to use transit with access to transit capacity to desired destinations.   

Instead, the Sound Transit Board apparently perceives its job is to implement Prop 1 and ST3 “Voter approved extensions”.  They’ve chosen to ignore the fact both voter approvals were the result of delusional extension ridership projections.  That Sound Transit refuses to add parking to increase access to transit or acknowledge light rail spine extensions don’t increase transit capacity into the city.  Thus, ridership added by extensions will only reduce access for current commuters.  

The October 2021 Northgate Link debut exemplified those failures.  Sound Transit’s website had projected the Link would add 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022.  Prior to the debut, the Seattle Times Traffic had heralded the Link as “Transit Transformed” promising the Link’s three stations would add 42,000 to 49,000 riders.  

 

Yet Sound Transit has yet to release the ridership added, no longer providing any quarterly service delivery performance reports.  Ending reports for service provided, riders added at each light rail station, and riders added by each bus route. Also ending reports for costs per boarder and fare box recovery of those costs for each transit mode.    

Instead, the result was reflected in Sound Transit’s 2022 budget prediction only 43,000 “Average Weekday Boardings” for the entire Link, less than the 48,600 predicted for 2021 budget, prior to Northgate debut.   The budget predicted the Link extension added costs, with $14.92 cost per boarding, a 30% increase over $11.67, 2021 prediction.  Both, presumably the result of Sound Transit’s recognition of the Link’s failure to provide commuters with increased access and transit capacity into Seattle.  

Sound Transit’s October 2023 Budget doesn't include any comparable “Link Budget Highlights”, “Service Provided, Boardings, Costs per Boarding, or Farebox Recovery.  Thus, it’s unclear what their year-over-year predictions with Northgate Link operation.  Yet, the budget’s Long Range Financial Plan, Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart still shows Link ridership increasing from 18 million in 2022 to 62 million in 2026.  Presumably because of extensions to Lynnwood, Federal Way, and Redmond.   

However, none of those extensions significantly increase parking for access, the number of transit vehicles per hour, or the capacity of those vehicles.  Sound Transit plans to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity into the city.  Sound Transit waits until 2032 for the West Seattle and 2037 for Ballard extensions to add transit capacity into downtown.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee on Dec. 8th will recommend approving the 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget.  A budget that reflects Sound Transit’s apparent goal to implement “voter approved” link extensions rather than reduce area’s congestion.  A budget that ignores the Northgate Link demonstration of the need for access and transit capacity.  Another year and billions spent on extensions that increase operating costs, do nothing to reduce congestion into the city, and reduce access for current riders.