Traffic Lab Should "Dig Into" ST CEO Rogoff Northgate Link Delay

The 2/23/21 post on this blog opined Sound Transit CEO Rogoff should be asked to explain his decision to delay Northgate Link debut for a year.  A November 19th video recorded Sound Transit presentation to the Sound Transit Board detailing plans for the Link's September debut.

Of particular interest were charts showing which I-5 bus routes would be terminated at Northgate Link stations and which would continue into Seattle.  The board was told, "the people were excited about the ability to ride Northgate Link".  The board and CEO Rogoff unanimously approved the proposal without discussion.

The September 21 debut approval was thought to be preordained.  For years Sound Transit's Northgate Link website had scheduled it to begin operation in 2021. (It still does.)  However a Sound Transit "Agency Progress Report: December 2020" included a chart showing the Link's Revenue Service Date" as Sept 26, 2022.  I-5 corridor transit riders will have to wait a full year to ride light rail.  

Again, the 2/23/22 post urged asking CEO Rogoff explain what happened between the November 19th meeting and the December 2020 report. It's something the Seattle Times Traffic Lab should "dig into".  Instead they've chosen to abide the delay, two months later abetting the "Next stop for Sound Transit: Fixing $11.4 billion shortfall" 

Whatever CEO Rogoff reason for the delay the results go beyond I-5 commuters having to wait a year.  It delays the Link's demonstrating light rail routed through the DSTT doesn't reduce I-5 congestion. That only a fraction of Sound Transit's website projected 41,000-49,000 riders by 2022 will do so.  Those who do will reduce access for current University Link riders, especially during peak commute.  However what's most important, it delays public recognition extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond also won't reduce congestion.

The bottom line is very little can be done about Sound Transit spending ~$1.5 billion this year on extensions beyond Northgate and Angel Lake.  The year's delay in demonstrating Northgate Link failure extends those expenditures and more for another year.  

If not justified, the delay goes beyond incompetence to fraud, again abided if not abetted by the Seattle Times Traffic Lab.   

Why Sound Transit Delays Northgate Link Debacle

 The 01/21/21 post on this blog, "Northgate Link Exemplifies Light Rail Spine Debacle" detailed why its debut in September would demonstrate Sound Transit should have never extended Central Link routed through DSTT to Northgate.  That the Sound Transit website was delusional, describing the Link as a "2.4 billion, 4.2-mile, 3-station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022".

The video of a November 19th, 2020 Sound Transit Board meeting showed their plan for Northgate Link debut in September 2021.  The board was told "the people were excited about the ability to ride Northgate Link."

The post opined its debut will demonstrate what should have been  obvious to anyone with a modicum of transit competence, that the extension will do nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.  That only a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 riders will ever ride the Northgate Link.  That even worse, those who do ride will reduce access for University Link riders, particularly during peak commute.

It turns out "those excited about the ability to ride the Northgate Link" will have to wait.  The November 19th video was followed by a Sound Transit "Agency Progress Report:December 2020". It included a chart, "Link Light Rail Program Overview" with Program Schedules including the below Activity ID and the start and finish dates for the Northgate Link Extension

       Activity ID                                      Start                        Finish      1050    Systems Construction            10-May-12              28-Jan-22      1060    Systems Startup/Testing         13-Feb-19               26-Sept-22    1070    Revenue Service Date                                            26-Sept-22

Sound Transit would have you believe between the November 19th video of the board unanimously accepting their plan to debut extension in September and the day they put the Northgate Link Program Schedule in the December Agency Progress Report they discovered the need to delay it for a year.  That rather than begin operating the extension in September they wouldn't finish construction until the next January.  That it took more than 3 years of testing before revenue service could begin.

(Apparently CEO Rogoff or whoever scheduled the delay were unaware the same document included a later chart, "Northgate Link Extension Project Cash Flow Projection".  It included the following:  The project cost is forecast to reach $1.74B by September, 2021, by the time the project opens for revenue service.) 

The more likely reason is even Sound Transit finally recognized Northgate Link operation will demonstrate light rail routed through the DSTT doesn't reduce congestions.  That the debut will expose the futility of funding light rail routed through the DSTT to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond.  Those funds should have been used to expedite Ballard and West Seattle Links.

CEO Rogoff's decision to delay Northgate debut for a year, allowing him to spend another year and billions more on the spine, seems beyond mere incompetence.  He needs to be asked why the delay. Something the Sound Transit Board and the Seattle Times assiduously refuse to do.  My campaign for King County Executive will. 

Seattle Times Still Abets ST CEO Incompetence

 The February 14th and 15th Seattle Times Traffic Lab articles concerning a "$11.5 billion shortfall in Sound Transit funding" typify the Traffic Lab failure to recognize CEO Rogoff incompetence.  The Times describes Traffic Lab as a project the "digs into the regions's thorny transportation issues and spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock".  Their approach has been to continue a decade of Seattle Times abiding if not abetting his incompetence. 

The February 14th article reported, "this shortage was revealed last month in the midst of environmental studies of the voter approved Sound Transit projects".   That they projected "a $6 billion reduction in tax revenue due to the COVID-19 recession".  Apparently the Times Traffic Lab and those doing the study were unaware of a CEO Rogoff October 10th presentation of the Sound Transit "Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021 Budget" to the board's Finance and Accounting Committee.

It included a chart, "Financial Plan unaffordable under current forecasts" showing the pandemic had reduced "Available sources" for funding 2017-20 expenditure from $97.9 B to $95.8B.  That, as of October 10th, the pandemic's affect was limited to a $2.1B loss in revenue for 2017-2041.

The $2.1B loss, along with a $0.6B increase in "Expenditures",  resulted in $2.7B of "Unfunded Expenditures".  The October 10th solution in another chart showed a 4-year-delay "realignment" made the plan affordable and delayed the need to increase "Outstanding Debt" until 2029.  That other than the realignment, the only pandemic financial affect was an increase in "Outstanding Debt" from $17B to $20B when ST3 funding ended in 2041.  Their clearly was no "immanent" $11.5 billion shortfall in October.

The Traffic Lab was also apparently unaware of Sound Transit December 17th meetings concerning 2021 budget.  Videos of presentations to the board's Finance and Accounting committee and later to the entire Sound Transit board showed both reviewing and approving 2021 budget. 

That budget also included a Transit Development Plan to spend $21.6 billion from 2020 to 2026 on "board approved light rail extensions."  The board approved the total budget in 10 minutes and was applauded afterward by CEO Rogoff for that response. He clearly had no concern about any $11.5 billion shortfall on December 17th.  

Meanwhile, the Traffic Lab articles concerning Sound Transit finances prior to the February articles was limited to a December 17th article heralding CEO Rogoff austerity for "skipping"  a $29,000 increase to his $379,000 for the coming year.  

Now, barely two months later, the traffic Lab is abiding CEO Rogoff "urging the board to identify both new money and cost reductions this year".  "That we cannot wait until we can no longer make payments for capital projects or operations to start making decisions".  

Yet, he was the one who, on December 17th asked the board to approve the $21.6 billion for his TDP with no plans for financing.  Two months later he's asking the board to provide "new money and cost reductions" for his budget.  While the February 15th article suggesting another transit-tax ballot may be the "new money", his expecting them to provide cost reductions is practically  laughable. 

The bottom line is CEO Rogoff should have been asked to explain how a budget he presented on October 10th and approved on December 17th with no increase in "Outstanding Debt" until 2029  could result in "a looming $11.5 billion regional funding shortfall" on February 14th.  Especially since the 2021 budget projected Sound Transit, even with the pandemic, would still have access to $95.8 billion from ST3 funding without additional taxes until 2042.  It's "unfortunate" the Times Traffic Lab's "digging into thorny issues" didn't include doing so.

My Campaign to Mitigate East Link Debacle

 The previous post opined my campaign for King County Executive was an attempt to alert voters the Northgate extension debut in September will demonstrate Sound Transit should have never extended light rail beyond UW station.  Sound Transit's refusal to provide access to light rail with additional parking or local bus routes to stations minimized its ability to reduce I-5 corridor congestion.

Instead, they initially proposed "seven to ten bus routes into Northgate station" and "link may replace bus route operation between Northgate and Downtown Seattle".  However commuter aversion to transferring from bus to light rail resulted in Snohomish  Community Transit, King County Metro and even Sound Transit continuing to route I-5 buses into Seattle.  The result being the September debut of the $2.6 billion spent on Northgate extension will demonstrate only a fraction of Sound Transit claim for 41,000, to 49,000 riders will use light rail.  That using light rail to reduce bus routes does nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.

This post opines my candidacy is to inform voters the blunder of spending $3.6 billion to route light rail trains across the I-90 Bridge center roadway dwarfs the Northgate debacle.  Rather than adding transit lanes Sound Transit confiscated two existing I-90 Bridge center roadway lanes.  Doing so clearly violated RCW 81.104.00 (2) by failing to consider far less expensive 2-way BRT on center roadway.  BRT would have had 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost.  The loss of half the Central Link routes to SeaTac when East Link begins adds to the blunder.

Mercer Island, Bellevue, and Redmond city councils could have stopped East Link by disallowing permits Sound Transit needed for construction.  Instead they advocated for East Link, resulting in Sound Transit construction devastating the route into Bellevue, ending the quiet solitude of the Mercer Slough Park, and increasing cross-lake congestion.

In 2023 operation of the $3.6 billion East Link extension will demonstrate the devastation, disruption, and congestion from its construction was all for naught.  First, Central Link commuters will lose half their routes, potentially ending access for some during peak commute.  Second, Sound Transit, as with the initial Northgate Link proposal, attempts to make up for the lack of access to stations with a 2014 decision to force I-90 corridor bus riders transfer to East Link at MI light rail station.  40,000 of the 50,000 riders Sound Transit promised for East link would come from terminated riders.  Again reducing the buses on I-90 HOV lanes will do nothing to reduce congestion.

The I-90 version was the result of Sound Transit's 2017 Settlement agreement with the MI city council.  The council made a major blunder in signing an agreement giving Sound Transit "all powers necessary to implement a high-capacity transit system".  Despite nearly unanimous islander objection, the council used the Settlement Agreement to justify allowing I-90 corridor transit buses terminate on island.  However , the council compounded  that blunder by allowing King County Metro, which wasn't part of the agreement, to also terminate bus routes on MI.

The result being a "bus intercept" agreement with MI council requiring  I-90 corridor bus riders transfer to and from East Link on MI.  However, rather than terminating up to 89 bus routes an hour as initially planned Sound Transit and KCM agreed to halve current I-90 bus routes, ending transit access for thousands.  The real absurdity is the MI council is suing Sound Transit over where buses will drop off riders on MI rather than requiring KCM buses continue to bypass MI, minimizing the problem.

Whatever the result, the MI light rail station, designed to accommodate 15,000 daily riders, will be inundated with thousands more commuters.  During peak commute both transferees and islanders will likely have difficulty finding access to East Link's limited capacity.  Those averse to transferring and those who've lost access to bus transit will be forced to carpool or drive alone, increasing congestion along entire I-90 corridor.

The bottom line is this blog and my previous campaigns, which began in 2012 in an attempt to "Stop East Link Now, has become an attempt to mitigate the damage.  Sound Transit needs to be "persuaded" to concede light rail routed through the DSTT does not have the transit capacity needed to reduce area's congestion.  Forcing commuters to transfer from bus routes to light rail does nothing to reduce congestion.  That the only way to do so is to increase bus ridership with additional access to bus routes.  My King County Executive candidacy continues that effort.

My King County Exective Candidacy

 My candidacy for King County Executive this year is an attempt to give county residents the chance to vote for someone who reflects their concerns.  An example is the car tab fees (MVET) they've been required to pay since Sound Transit 3 funding was approved in 2016.  Prior to the vote, Sound Transit told voters,"a median-car value owner would pay only $47 in increased tab fees".

Residents responded to the far higher fees by approving I-976 limiting tolls to $30.  However, the Supreme Court overturned the judge who validated its passage, claiming voters didn't understand the title.  Even Sound Transit recognized residents were forced to pay MVET that weren't based on "vehicles true current value".  Yet they refuse to adjust to "true current value" unless legislature makes up for the lower revenue.  My candidacy will allow residents to vote for someone who reflects their concern over higher fees.  Something the incumbent and Seattle Times refuse to do.

The Times also ignores the Sound Transit failure to reduce roadway congestion.  Both refuse to recognize doing so requires adding the parking and bus routes needed to attract more riders to transit.  Instead the Times abets Sound Transit spending hundreds of millions on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase capacity limited by DSTT in Seattle.  

Rather than add parking Sound Transit has forced residents to pay to reserve a spot in an existing P&R.  As a  result early commuters lost access to those willing to pay to reserve parking.  The Times approach to congestion has been to require commuters pay tolls, making the commute more expensive but nothing to provide an alternative via added public transit.  My candidacy will allow residents who commute along I-5 into Seattle to show their concern with a vote.

The September debut of the Northgate Link will increase those concerns.  Sound Transit's decision to use the $2.5 billion extension to replace buses from Northgate will do nothing to increase transit capacity or reduce I-5 congestion.  Spending billions extending light rail to Lynnwood only increases operating costs not capacity. Again, doing nothing to reduce congestion.  

Instead the debut will force many of those riding buses transfer to light rail at Northgate. Rather than continuing into Seattle on their bus they'll face the hassle of transferring to light rail for the route into Seattle.  That and the hassle of  accessing light rail in the DSTT for the return route will likely deter many bus riders.  The result being Northgate operation will reduce transit ridership, increasing vehicles and congestion on I-5.  My candidacy allows them to vote their concerns.

The bottom line is residents continue to be forced to pay high car tab fees despite passing I-976.  They've continued to face ever increasing congestion despite approving Prop 1 in 2008 and ST3 in 2016.  For more than a decade they've been told by the Seattle Times the "light rail spine" is the solution.  That it's a major part of Sound Transit CEO Rogoff's long-range plan to spend $96 billion over the next twenty years on the "largest transportation system expansion in the country".

What they haven't been told is the billions spent extending light rail routed through the DSTT will do nothing to increase its capacity.  That when ST3 funding ends in 2042 the area will be left with a $17 billion  debt and light rail extensions too expensive to operate. 

The Northgate debut will demonstrate Sound Transit should have never extended Central Link beyond UW station.  That Sound Transit claims for 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders in 2022 are beyond "delusional".  The years and $2.5 billion on a light rail extension has done nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.  

Those years and billions are only the beginning. Sound Transit plans to spend billions on light rail extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond that won't increase transit capacity.  Again, the only way to reduce I-5 congestion is to add parking and local bus routes to express bus routes into Seattle.  

Clearly neither the current King County Executive nor the Seattle Times recognizes those realities.  I'm a Trump supporter with no desire or expectation of defeating the incumbent.  My candidacy is simply to allow those who recognize that reality to respond with a vote.  That doing so will attract the attention needed to "persuade"  Sound Transit to divert funding from light rail extensions that won't reduce congestion to adding access to bus capacity that will.