Better Ways to Use Existing Transportation Funds

The January 22^nd Seattle Times, Opinion, Special to the Times, “Better Ways to fund and invest in a transportation system for all” typifies the failure to recognize the area’s biggest transportation problem is not the lack of funds it’s how the existing funds have been spent and will be spent in the future.   

The area’s transportation problem was exemplified by a PSRC "EPT Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report". It included a Commute Mode Share "Pie Chart" showing in 2013, 74% drove alone, 10% carpooled, and 10% rode transit. Clearly reducing congestion requires convincing more of those who drove alone or carpooled to use public transit.   The way to increase public transit is to increase capacity and provide access to the increased capacity.

Yet Sound Transit has spent a decade and billions on Prop 1 extensions that do neither.  They chose to route the extensions through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT).  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, a fraction of the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  The billions spent on extensions do nothing to increase that capacity.  Thus, any riders added by the billions spent on Prop 1 extensions will reduce access for current Central Link riders. 

Sound Transit refuses to add parking for access even light rail’s limited capacity despite the fact nearly all of the parking has been full for years.   They choose instead to provide riders by using light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle. Thousands of bus riders will be forced to transfer to and from light rail for their commute into and out of Seattle. 

The result being Sound Transit, instead of increasing the 10% of commuters using transit, has spent billions on Prop 1 extensions whose operation will result in former bus riders displacing current Central Link riders.  For example, riders added by the $2.1 billion Northgate extension will reduce access for University Link riders.  The decision to use the extensions to end bus routes into Seattle will reduce total transit capacity.   

The billions Sound Transit has spent and will continue to spend on the East Link extension will be regarded as one of the biggest wastes of transportation funds in history.  They’ve already devastated the route into Bellevue for half the DSTT capacity, a fraction of what’s needed to reduce cross-lake congestion.  East Link operation will also halve Central Link capacity to SeaTac, reducing access for current riders and potentially ending access for many during peak commute. 

East Link confiscated an I-90-Bridge center roadway that could have been used for two-way BRT with 10 times East Link capacity, at 1/10^th the cost, ten years sooner.  It’s already increased outer roadway congestion because the added 4^th lanes on outer roadway can’t make up for the loss of the two center roadway lanes.   

East Link operation will increase, not decrease, the current I-90 Bridge outer roadway congestion.  Again Sound Transit makes up for the lack of access by forcing I-90 corridor bus riders to transfer to and from light rail on Mercer Island.  Their "bus intercept" agreement requires they halve the number of current I-90 corridor buses ending access to transit for many.  Those unable to no longer ride transit will increase I-90 corridor congestion and add to the I-90 Bridge congestion from loss of center roadway lanes. 

(One of the more absurd attempts to boost East LInk ridership is Sound Transit convinced the Bellevue city council to proposal spening millions to transform a thriving business district into a residential area in order to provide riders for their East Main station.)

Unfortunately there is very little that can be done about the billions spent on Northgate or East Link extensions.  However those billions wasted pale in comparison to the billions Sound Transit CEO Rogoff intends to spend in his  2019 budget plan.  Anyone interested in finding “Better ways to fund and invest in a transportation system for all” should recognize the billions spent on his light rail spine will do nothing to increase DSTT capacity into Seattle. 

Thus, any riders added by extending Northgate link to Lynnwood and beyond, Central Link from Angel Lake to Federal Way and beyond, and East Link from Overlake to Redmond will further reduce access for current light rail riders.   Forcing those bus commuters to transfer to and from light rail further reduces transit capacity into Seattle.

As editorial opines “we also need to look at how we invest our transportation dollar”.  Anyone with a modicum of competence would recognize the way to increase transit ridership is to provide more riders with access to increased bus capacity.  Sound Transit needs to end its decade of refusing to increase both. 

Access can be increased with added parking at T/Cs or local bus routes to T/Cs.  Capacity can be increased with additional high capacity (HCT) buses.  During peak commute each T/C could have an express route into and out of Seattle rather than a stop along a light rail spine from Everett or Tacoma.  The routes could be scheduled to meet local demand rather than accept schedules dictated by light rail economics.  (How often does Sound Transit want to run 4-car trains to Everett or Tacoma?)  Off peak bus routes could include the intermediate stops to meet those needs.

The buses could operate on HOT lanes with fees raised to limit total traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to assure 45 mph.   Doing so would reduce the current 50-minute, 8:00 am. 15.2-mile, Lynnwood-to-Seattle commute to 20 minutes. The express bus routes would also avoid the delays associated with all the intermediate light rail train stops.

Egress and access in Seattle could be facilitated with each route having dedicated stations on an elongated T/C on 4^th Ave.   The dedicated drop off and pick up 4^th Ave stations would be more convenient for most and would avoid the hassle of using the two DSTT stations especially for the return trip. 

A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate 119 sitting and standing riders. An additional 100 HCT buses traveling at 45 mph would add the capacity of 5 lanes of freeway into Seattle.  And more could be added when and where needed.  ST3 funds could be spent providing access to capacity that increases transit ridership rather than extending light rail that can’t and operations that reduce transit capacity into Seattle.

The added bus routes would not only reduce congestion they would dramatically reduce the editorials other concern “The need for “cleaner transportation options”.  The ability to replace 100 vehicles with a single bus (electric?) is surely a way to reduce transportation as the “states No 1 source of climate pollution”.   

The bottom line is Governor Inslee has made the reducing CO2 emissions the cornerstone of his administration.  He could reduce emissions and congestion by requiring his “Clean Air Act” legislation require Sound Transit divert the ST3 funds for extensions beyond Northgate or Angel Lake to adding parking at existing or new T/Cs or local bus routes to T/C for access to added bus capacity into Seattle.

How Microsoft Can Go “Carbon Negative”

The Jan 17^th Seattle Times front page article “Microsoft sets sights on hitting carbon negative” details how they intend to be “carbon negative" within the decade, using its "technology, money, and influence to drive down carbon emissions across the economy".   However if Microsoft really wants to reduce carbon emissions it doesn’t take a decade, technology, or influence for them to reduce local carbon emissions.

They can begin doing so in a year by dramatically increasing their Connector service for employees.  The April 12^th 2009 Seattle Times reported 3000 daily trips were taken by Microsoft employees on the 53 Connectors buses' nineteen routes.  Their Connector routes could be expanded beyond whatever improvements they’ve made since then to where 30,000 to 40,000 employees are able to use the routes. 

The resulting reduction in carbon emissions would likely offset much of, if not more than, what Microsoft’s  "own operations and its supply chain emit each year.” They could further reduce emissions with electric powered vans and buses.  And they could begin doing so within a year.

Microsoft could initially establish routes for vans or buses to within walking distance of where workers live with compatible schedules or whose schedules could be revised to fit routes.  Microsoft could add Connector routes or contract with Sound Transit to provide vans or buses for the routes during peak commute.  

Microsoft could later decide to construct their own park and ride lots with express bus routes to Redmond campus.  The costs for doing so would probably be less than what their underground parking on campus will cost.  As with current Connector service the added routes could be provided with Wi-Fi access to make commute time “productive time”.

Not only would each bus eliminate carbon emissions from 40-50 vehicles, any east side resident needing to use the area roadways from West Lake Samammish Blvd to 140^th would no longer encounter huge lines of traffic for several hours every morning and afternoon.  Reducing their emissions and providing a welcome relief for many from a recent Bellevue survey report 64% of residents considered traffic problems as their major concern.

Again  it doesn’t take a decade, technology, or influence (moonshot?) for Microsoft to become “carbon negative”.  A November 2017 GoGo website detailed how every day over 34,000 Silicon Valley employees are transported to their jobs by well-known companies such as Apple, Google, and Facebook. That’s who Microsoft should emulate, reducing carbon emissions as well as east side congestion.

Seattle Times Continues Abetting Sound Transit Car Tab Mendacity.

The January 12th Seattle Times opinion page cartoon “A little pothole on the road back to Olympia” depicting the Eyman Car Tab Initiative as a ” chasm" rather than a “pothole” typifies the Times years of abetting Sound Transit mendacity regarding car tab issue.   It began with a Sound Transit 7/8/2016 post entitled: “ST3 plan would cost typical adult $169 annually or $14 per month”.

It included the following:

Here’s how much a typical adult would pay if ST3 is approved:

MVET

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed. The updated calculation reflects an annual median value $5,333 of vehicles in the Sound Transit District. MVET taxes are determined by a state of Washington depreciation schedule for a specific vehicle’s model and production year. The previous calculation relied on a less representative average vehicle value of $10,135 for the more expansive tri-county area, for a significantly higher annual cost of $78 per adult. 

Yet the Times abetted Sound Transit's response to voter complaints, an April 2017 post headlined “Sound Transit 3 car tab rollback threatens light rail to Everett”:

During the campaign, Sound Transit was completely transparent about the taxes. We all knew that our car tabs would increase a lot in 2017 to help fund Sound Transit. So when the first invoices arrived, the vast majority of people just paid their tabs. But a vocal minority, with big tabs from expensive cars, took their displeasure to Olympia, hoping that the Legislature would listen to their stories and disregard the will of the people.

State Senators Steve O’ban and Dino Rossi, in a May 12, 2017 KOMOnews.com, called for special investigation as to “whether Sound Transit had engaged in a systematic effort to confuse and misrepresent the impact and cost of the Sound Transit authorization to legislators and the public."

Yet the Times abetted the following response from the Sound Transit Director of Media Relations and Public Information Communications & External Affairs, Geoff Patrick:

Sound Transit's interactions with the legislature and all of the extensive public materials related to the Sound Transit 3 ballot measure included clear and accurate information.   That the legislative language allowing regional voters to consider the Sound Transit 3 measure was extensively debated and covered by news media.

A Joel Connelly June 8^th 2017 Seattle PI article included the following:

        A survey by Moore Information, the venerable Portland-based polling firm with Republican and business clients, shows that ST3 would get only 37 percent support were voters given a do-over.

Thus it’s likely there would have been no ST3 without Sound Transit car tab mendacity.  Yet the ST3 package, approved by the legislature in 2015 was for $15 billion, responding to a Sound Transit Board request for an additional $1 billion a year for 15 years.  Still the Times abetted Sound Transit using that legislation to gain voter approval of $54 billion in ST3 taxes in 2016. 

Tim Eyman’s Initiative 976 was a response to vehicle owners outraged by the higher car-tab bills from Sound Transit overvaluing some vehicles compared to the commonly used Kelley Blue Book.  It was included in the Voters Ballot as

Initiative Measure No. 976 concerns motor vehicle taxes and fees. This measure would repeal, reduce or remove authority to impose certain vehicle taxes and fees; limit annual motor vehicle-license fees to $30, except voter-approved charges; and base vehicle taxes on Kelley Blue Book value.

That seemed like a pretty straightforward attempt to inform voters what the initiative would do if approved.  Sound Transit’s response was I-976 wouId add 20 years to light rail completion despite the fact the $6.5 billion only makes up about 10% of their 2019 budgets $64 billion in taxes by 2041.  King County Metro responded with the following:

It is difficult to definitively determine the effects of the initiative because its implementation will rely on future decisions of the Legislature, city councils, and Sound Transit Board, and resolution of any potential legal challenges. That being said, absent replacement funds, the passage of I-976 could potentially result in ……..(a list of some 20 items)

When voters approved I-976 the Times claimed King County reaffirmed voter support for Sound Transit despite the fact all of the opposition ads were about “Bridge Safety” not funding light rail extensions.  The concern “passage of I-976 could potentially result in" became in the Plaintiffs Complaint, “Findings of Fact” to a judge.

If I-976 takes effect on December 5,2019 and is thereafter implemented, such acts will result in the following immediate, irreparable harms to Plaintiffs (essentially King Country Metro concerns)

The judge concurred with the Plaintiff’s “immediate, irreparable harm” concerns, and the Plaintiff’s “Complaint” “I-976 is a poorly drafted hodge-podge that violates multiple provisions of the Constitution”.   It’s an argument only Sound Transit lawyers and judges can make and the Seattle Times can abide.  The entire area will continue to pay the tabs as a result.  

Another Year Added to I-405 Debacle

The previous post detailed how the Seattle Times Traffic Lab has spent another year abetting Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s plans to spend billions on light rail extensions to replace bus routes into Seattle.  Both fail to recognize reducing the number of bus routes into Seattle will do little to reduce congestion. That it brings the area another year closer to 2021 when Northgate operation will force bus riders to transfer to and from light rail for the commutes into and out of Seattle, reducing transit capacity into Seattle, and reducing access to transit for current University Link riders. 

It’s also another year closer to 2023 when East Link operation will halve transit capacity to SeaTac and current I-90 transit routes will be halved to terminate buses on Mercer Island.  The 2024 completion dates for Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions will not only further reduce access for current riders, they will double the route operating costs. 

This post opines the Traffic Lab has also spent another year abetting the WSDOT and Sound Transit I-405 debacle.  A Dec 25, 2017 Seattle Times article “I-405 express toll lanes between Renton and Bellevue are on their way” included the following:

In 2019, work crews on Interstate 405 will start building a new lane in each direction between Renton and Bellevue, as part of a series of changes that aim to improve traffic flow on what officials call Washington’s worst corridor for congestion.

Yet more than two years later I “experienced” the “worst corridor for congestion” taking 60 minutes on a Jan 6^th 8:30 am commute from the 167 onramp to I-405 to Bellevue.  Apparently neither the Traffic Lab nor the WSDOT still doesn’t recognize implementing HOT on two I-405 lanes will not only increase GP lane congestion, those willing to pay the $10.00 HOT fees won’t achieve the 45 mph during much of the peak commute. 

Implementing HOT on two of five lanes between Bothell and Bellevue has already increased GP lane congestion to where HOT-lane traffic exceeds the 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) required to assure 45 mph during much of peak commute.  That imposing HOT fees on two of only four lanes between Bellevue and Renton will surely exacerbate the problem there as will future growth along the entire route.

They need to recognize the way to increase both HOT and GP lane velocities is to limit HOT to one HOV lane with fees raised to assure 45 mph and use the second lane for GP use.  That the way to reduce the HOT fees needed to assure 45 mph and to reduce GP lane congestion is to increase transit capacity along the HOT lane. 

Traffic Lab needs to recognize Sound Transit plans to increase I-405 transit capacity with one BRT route every 10 minutes beginning in 2024 are far too little and too late.  Sound Transit needs to be “persuaded” to route an additional 100 BRT routes an hour during peak commute along both north and south I-405 HOT lanes. 

The routes would include express connections during peak commute between individual P&R lots along I-5 from north of Lynnwood and south of Southcenter, along 167 from south of Renton, and along I-405 to Bellevue and Overlake T/Cs.   Local bus routes to T/Cs could increase access to BRT with part of the funds coming from Traffic Lab “persuading” Sound Transit to drop plans to spend $300 million on an “In-line 85^th St T/C” near Kirkland with no access. 

The bottom line is there are ways for Traffic Lab to “spotlight promising approaches to easing gridlock”.  It’s another year wasted until they do.

Another Year of Traffic Lab Incompetence?

The Seattle Times describes Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock, and helps readers find the best ways to get around. It is funded with the help of community sponsors Alaska Airlines, Kemper Development Co., NHL Seattle, PEMCO Mutual Insurance Company and Seattle Children’s hospital. Seattle Times editors and reporters operate independently of our funders and maintain editorial control over Traffic Lab content.”

The fact the Seattle Times maintains “editorial control over Traffic Lab content” raises questions as to who decides how they deal with “transportation issues”.   That another year of apparent Traffic Lab incompetence may reflect “editorial” control rather than an inability of the Times staff to recognize the problems.

For example it’s been over a year since ST CEO Peter Rogoff presented his 2019 budget to the Sound Transit Board. It included the following:

We introduced a new mission statement: “We are connecting more people to more places.”

It’s unclear what Sound Transit’s previous “mission statement” was.  The “new mission” included plans to use $63 billion in taxes as part of $96 billion of revenue to finance $50 billion in capital expenditures between 2017 and 2041. However any journalist with a modicum of public transit competence would have recognized Sound Transit’s long term plans for light rail extensions will do little to “connect more people to more places”.

The problem being Sound Transit’s decision to route the light rail spine through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will limit its capacity to a fraction of the capacity needed to accommodate the riders required to reduce roadway congestion.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited trains to 4 cars, that each 74-seat car could accommodate 148 riders, and safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains giving a total capacity of 8880 people per hour per direction (pphpd). 

None of the billions spent on Prop 1 extensions will increase that capacity. When Northgate begins operation in 2021, any riders added will reduce access for University Link riders. When East Link begins operation in 2023, half the capacity to SeaTac will diverted across I-90 Bridge to Bellevue. The billions spent extending light rail from Northgate to Lynnwood or from Angel Lake to Federal Way will further reduce access for current riders.  Clearly extensions beyond Lynnwood or Federal Way will exacerbate the problem for riders along the entire spine.  The only result of the longer routes will be the need for more light rail cars and higher subsidies to cover operating costs. 

Yet the Seattle Times Traffic Lab abided if not abetted CEO Rogoff’s 2019 budget projections the light rail extensions will increase ridership from 22 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041. Even more absurd they abet Sound Transit plans to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle; reducing transit capacity into Seattle.  The problem being all the parking facilities with access to existing express bus or train stations have been full or years.  Yet Sound Transit waits until 2024 to begin spending $698 million over the next 17 years adding a measly 8560 parking stalls.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab has abetted another year of Sound Transit Link spending 86 percent of the $2.4 billion on light rail extension projects during 2019.  It’s brought us another year closer to 2021 when an additional $4 billion will have been spent on extensions that include completion of the Northgate Link.  Its operation will result in bus riders being forced to transfer to and from light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle, reducing transit capacity into Seattle and displacing current University Link riders.

Its also brought us another year closer to 2023 when another $4.5 billion will have been spent on East Link and other extensions.  East Link operation will halve Central Link capacity to SeaTac.  Sound Transit again intends to use it to replace cross-lake bus routes, agreeing to halve current I-90 buses in order to terminate routes on Mercer Island.  Increasing congestion on both routes into Seattle.  It’s also another year closer to when the billions spent on Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions will further displace current riders and double trip costs.  

Again it's not clear whether it's another year of Traffic Lab incompetence or another year of "editorial" failure to recognize the problems.  Still it's another year of ever increasing congestion and another year closer to when the entire area will recognize the transit fraud the Seattle Times has allowed to be perpetrated on the entire area.