More Traffic Lab Incompetence With I-405

Recent posts have detailed how Sound Transit has spent a decade spending billions on light rail extensions that don’t increase transit capacity on I-5 or I-90 corridors, but nothing on added parking and bus service that would.   That prior to the ST3 vote they lied about what it would cost and how many riders it would add. That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, whose purported objective is to “dig into problems” continues to ignore those realities, allowing Sound Transit to continue to spend years and billions of ST3 funds on a light rail spine that does nothing to reduce congestion. 

Two recent articles exemplify the Traffic Lab also doesn't seem to recognize Sound Transit or WSDOT failure to address I-405 problems. The first, a Sept 9^th headlined “New bus station in Kirkland will be a $300 million gamble” details Sound Transit plans to provide Kirkland commuters access to express bus service into Bellevue.   For years Kirkland residents only access to transit has been between a T/C in the city and a South Kirkland P&R near SR 520.  All of the buses serving the route go across SR520 to University or into Seattle.  Thus one wonders about Sound Transit’s claim Kirkland commuters “need the 85th St station for people to catch a bus in the 5- mile gap between Totem Lake and downtown Bellevue”.

The Sound Transit 3 map for funding I-405 BRT shows the 2 other new stations will have parking, as do all the existing stations except for the Bellevue T/C.    The P&R lots near existing bus stations along I-405 have been full for years.   While ST3 adds 400 stalls to the Totem/Kingsgate station, it’s not clear how many stalls will be added to the 2 new stations near Renton.   Meanwhile, for years Sound Transit bus service between Lynnwood and Bellevue has been limited to eleven 535 bus routes that begin in  Lynnwood at 3:18 am and end at 9:18 am.  The nearly 1000 commuters who, per Sound Transit quarterly ridership reports, ride the 11 buses during the morning hours "suggests" more buses would be welcome.

Rather than add parking or bus service currently needed along the route Sound Transit has decided that by 2024, they'll spend $300 million on a three-tiered interchange with a transit station that doesn’t have any parking. For Traffic Lab to call it a “gamble” doesn’t do justice to the fact Sound Transit, for a fraction of the $300 million, could begin adding thousands of parking spaces and additional bus routes to existing lots along I-405 corridor that will increase transit capacity rather than wait 6 years for a station that won’t.   Kirkland commuters deserve additional parking in South Kirkland with bus service to Bellevue now rather than an I-405 station with no access in 2024.

The second Traffic Lab article “Can $3B finally fix I-405 gridlock” exemplifies their failure to recognize the WSDOT plans to implement 2 HOT lanes between Lynnwood and Renton will either require a huge increase in tolls or fail to achieve 45 mph average on HOT lanes.  Neither the Traffic Lab nor WSDOT recognize HOT lanes are normally based on the premise fares can be set to limit the number of vehicles to what’s required to achieve the desired HOT velocity; e.g. achieving 45 mph requires limiting traffic to 2000 vehicle per hour (vpr).   HOT avoids the problem HOV lanes have when the number of 2 person carpools exceeds the 2000 vph limit needed to average 45 mph.

Instead, the WSDOT apparently bases their plans for 2 HOT lanes on their project director’s “unique” claim, “toll lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.”  The article opines, “Express toll lanes flow better” while “GP lanes will be clogged from the start”. 

They ignore the fact the 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue have failed to meet the 45 mph for 90% of the peak commute time, despite the fact they assume peak commute begins at 5:00 am.  Only about 50% of current HOT commuters likely average the 45 mph.  The problem being, limiting GP to only 3 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increases congestion to the point where more drivers are willing to pay the current HOT tolls than the 2 HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the 45 mph average. 

WSDOT plans to limit GP traffic to only 2 lanes on the rest of the route will surely exacerbate the problem there.  Again, the increased GP lane congestion with 2 HOT lanes will require WSDOT to either dramatically increase the tolls or allow HOT lanes to fail to achieve the 45 mph.  Future growth will increase GP lane congestion and either force higher tolls or slower HOT lane velocities. 

The WSDOT could minimize HOT fees and reduce GP lane congestion by limiting HOT to one lane, with fees set to what’s required to limit number of vehicles to achieve 45 mph.  The added lane would reduce congestion for GP vehicles, despite WSDOT claims to the contrary, potentially reducing HOT fees needed to restrict usage. 

The single HOT lane’s 45 mph would assure reliable bus schedules, satisfying the articles concern, “Sound Transit needs the state to ensure its toll lanes flow at 45 mph”.  (Typical of Sound Transit CEO Rogoff, he claims BRT along the route will attract 18,000 riders despite refusing to add any significant parking for access.)  The WSDOT is already making plans for spending HOV revenue from the two HOT lanes, “suggesting” they're anticipating the revenue from the two HOT lanes.    

Clearly, the answer to the Traffic Lab question "Can $3B finally fix I-405 Gridlock?" is an emphatic No!  The two recent Traffic Lab articles concerning I-405 exemplify years of failure to dig into and expose Sound Transit's and WSDOT's incompetent response to the area’s transportation problems.   

Traffic Lab Ignores Decade of Sound Transit Fraud.

The Seattle Times touts their Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock and helps readers find the best ways to get around.”   However two recent Traffic Lab Sound Transit articles exemplify their inability to “dig into the thorny transportation issues” or “spotlight promising approaches to easing gridlock”. 

The first was the Sept 8^th B1 page article concerning a judge dismissing a lawsuit over Sound Transit’s car tab taxes.  The previous post detailed how, prior to the ST3 vote, a Sound Transit website had lied about what car tabs would cost, dropped the website and later “lied about lying”.  The Times Traffic Lab repeated Sound Transit’s pre-vote car tab cost claims in a July 13 2016 article “Here’s what you’d pay to build a bigger Sound Transit network”.  Yet after the vote they allowed Sound Transit to “lie about lying” claiming they had never ”misled” voters.  The Sept 8^th article continues Traffic Lab’s failure to tell voters about Sound Transit’s car tab “deception”.  

A second Traffic Lab article on the same Sept. 8th B1 page, “Feds slot $100 million for Lynnwood light rail, but formal agreement pending,” exemplifies their failure to recognize Sound Transit’s 10 year failure to increase public transit capacity. It doesn’t take “much digging” to conclude Sound Transit’s decision to route Central Link through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) severely limited its capacity.  That Prop 1 extensions to Northgate and beyond do nothing to increase that capacity and East Link halves capacity to SeaTac.  Prop 1 passage marked the beginning of 10 years of Sound Transit spending billions on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase transit capacity and spend nothing for add parking or bus service that would. 

The Traffic Lab not only ignored Sound Transits failure to increase public transit, they played a major role in passing ST3, allowing billions more to be wasted on light rail extensions.  Not only, as mentioned above, did they allow Sound Transit to lie about what car tabs would cost, they allowed them to make absurd claims as to the number of commuters who would use it. 

Prior to the ST3 vote the Sound Transit Board promoted an interactive map, “Sound Transit 3” detailing projected ridership from “Prop 1 and beyond” extensions.   The extension from Lynnwood to Everett would add up to 45,000 daily riders, which combined with their previous estimate for 67,000 riders from Lynnwood extension adds up to 110,000 daily light rail riders into and out of Seattle from beyond Northgate.  The ST3 projected ridership for extensions beyond Angel Lake would add up to 95,000 daily riders.

Yet the billions Sound Transit plans to spend on “Prop 1 and beyond” do nothing to increase DSTT capacity into Seattle.  Again, it doesn’t take much “digging” to conclude Central Link’s inability to accommodate more than a fraction of the additional 110,000 riders from Everett or 95,000 riders from Tacoma.   The projected added riders from Tacoma extensions are particularly absurd since East Link halves DSTT capacity on the extension.  The reality is, whatever riders added will simply reduce Central Link’s capacity to accommodate current riders.

Yet the Sept 8^th Traffic Lab article heralds the apparent $200 million federal grant for Lynnwood extension and hopes for additional federal funds for Federal Way extension as a boon for area commuters.  They quoted Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s view, “The new allocation was a turning point in the Trump administration’s approach to transit funding”.  Rogoff, whose leadership of Sound Transit has been so inept, is probably wrong about additional funding. 

Meanwhile Traffic Lab needs to recognize, no matter how much federal funding is provided, the vast majority of "Prop 1 and Beyond" funds will come from local taxes.  Sound Transit should never be allowed to spend up to $3.2 billion on extensions to Lynnwood and $2.5 billion extending light rail to Federal Way.  Not only does the money spent do nothing to increase capacity, any extension ridership will reduce access for current riders and the longer routes will require a huge subsidy to cover the shortfall between fare-box revenue and increased operating costs.  

It's time the Seattle Times Traffic Lab recognized Sound Transit’s decade long fraudulent approach to public transit capacity is enough.

Car Tab Tax Issue Epitomizes Sound Transit Decade of Fraud

The Sept 8^th Seattle Times B1 page article, ”Sound Transit can keep collecting car tab taxes as judge tosses lawsuit” epitomizes a decade of Sound Transit fraud.  The car tab taxes are Sound Transit’s second-largest source of revenue from the 2016 ST3 ballot measure.  Prior to its passage, predicted car tab costs were included in a Sound Transit 7/08/2016 post entitled: “ST3 plan would cost typical adult $169 annually or $14 per month”.

It included the following:

Here’s how much a typical adult would pay if ST3 is approved:

MVET

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed. The updated calculation reflects an annual median value $5,333 of vehicles in the Sound Transit District. MVET taxes are determined by a state of Washington depreciation schedule for a specific vehicle’s model and production year. The previous calculation relied on a less representative average vehicle value of $10,135 for the more expansive tri-county area, for a significantly higher annual cost of $78 per adult. 

Sound Transit’s decision to use a $5,333 as the median motor vehicle value to tell voters what car tabs would cost played a major role in ST3 passage.  A Joel Connelly June 8^th 2017 Seattle PI article reported “ST3 would get only 37% support were voters given a do-over”.

Sound Transit dropped the ST3tax.com website they used to estimate, “How much tax per year will you pay for Sound Transit if ST3 passes”. (They must have done so very soon after the 7/08/2016 post since a one-year offer to sell the website for $1385 ended on 7/20/2017 with apparently no takers.) 

Rather than conceding they had misled voters Sound Transit responded to voter complaints in an April 2017 post headlined “Sound Transit 3 car tab rollback threatens light rail to Everett”

During the campaign, Sound Transit was completely transparent about the taxes. We all knew that our car tabs would increase a lot in 2017 to help fund Sound Transit. So when the first invoices arrived, the vast majority of people just paid their tabs. But a vocal minority, with big tabs from expensive cars, took their displeasure to Olympia, hoping that the Legislature would listen to their stories and disregard the will of the people.

Sound Transit apparently blames the legislature since the Sept 8^th article claims “Sound Transit uses an outdated formula, inherited from the Legislature, to estimate a car’s value for the purposes of collecting taxes. The formula inflates newer cars values relative to Kelley Blue Book values, resulting in higher car-tab fees”.  

The reality is the Sound Transit decision to lie about what car tabs would cost played a major role in passing ST3.  To later lie about lying, exemplifies a decade of going way beyond mere malfeasance or incompetence since Prop 1 passed.

        

A Decade of Sound Transit Fraud is Enough

  

   (This  “Special to the Times” will undoubtedly be ignored)

In two short months the area will “celebrate” the 10^th anniversary of what will inevitably be considered one of the biggest public works fraud in history, Sound Transits passage of the Prop 1 light rail extensions.   

Prior to Prop 1, Sound Transit’s light rail was limited to a Central Link route between the UW and SeaTac. They routed it through the existing Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) to avoid congestion on Seattle’s streets.  However the DSTT limited Central Link’s capacity. 

A 2004 Puget Sound Regional High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment concluded station lengths in the tunnel limited light rail trains to four cars, that safe operation required 4 minutes between trains, and that each 74-seat can reasonably accommodate 148 riders.   Thus total light rail capacity in Seattle was limited to a total of 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction.

Part of Sound Transit’s Central Link projections for more than 100,000 daily riders was based on a T/C near the UW Stadium.  It provided an interface between SR 520 BRT and light rail, benefiting commuters from both sides of the lake.  A second bridge across the Montlake Cut was planned to facilitate access to UW T/C.

Without Prop 1, Central Link’s 8880 rph could have provided Seattleites with added transit capacity into city center, UW, and access to potential SR 520 BRT routes to Microsoft and Bellevue.   East side commuters could have used return SR 520 BRT routes to T/C at UW with Central Link connections into Seattle.   Part of the tunnel capacity could have eventually been used for a Central Link route to West Seattle.

Prop 1 changed all that. Sound Transit dropped plans for the 2^nd bridge and UW T/C, promising voters light rail extensions to Mill Creek, Federal Way, and across I-90 Bridge to Redmond: all routed through the DSTT.  Prop 1, which was heralded by Sound Transit as “A gift to our Grandchildren” did nothing to increase light rail transit capacity into the city.  Instead diverting half the DSTT capacity across I-90 reduced Central Link capacity to SeaTac.  Clearly, Prop 1 failed any rational cost/benefit capacity analysis.

Sound Transit’s planning for Prop 1 also violated the Revised Code of Washington. RCW 81.104.100 stipulated any HCT planning consider a “do nothing option and a low capital option that maximizes the current system”.  Yet there is no indication Sound Transit ever considered additional bus routes along a limited access HOV lane on I-5 or 2-way bus only lanes on I-90 Bridge center roadway.

Even a cursory planning study would have concluded Sound Transit could have increased transit capacity on all the major roadways into Seattle with the added bus service without spending a dime on Prop I extensions. Sound Transit disdain for increased bus public transit once Prop 1 passed is exemplified by quarterly ridership reports showing revenue vehicle miles operated in 2008 prior to Prop 1, 10,450,000, were budgeted to increase to only 12,118,429 in 2018. 

During those same ten years Sound Transit refused to add any significant parking with access to bus routes despite the fact that many of the major P&R lots have been full for years.  Again, they recently typified disdain for added transit capacity with plans to reserve stalls at existing parking for “late arriving commuters” rather than adding bus routes and parking. 

Prop 1 passage has been especially onerous for east side residents. Their failure to comply with RCW allowed them to avoid the conclusion they could've implemented 2-way BRT on the bridge center roadway 10 years sooner than light rail, with 10 times light rail capacity at 1/10^th the cost.  Cross lake BRT rather than light rail would have eliminated the need to devastate the route into Bellevue. 

Much of the 2008 DEIS promoting East Link was sheer fantasy, claiming capacity for up to 24,000 rph despite the fact it was limited to half of what the PSRC concluded for DSTT, or 4440 rph in each direction.   Even worse, they intend to use East Link’s limited capacity to replace I-90 Bridge bus routes, apparently unaware reducing the number of buses on the bridge HOV lanes does nothing to reduce bridge GP lane congestion.  They could have not only added the 4440 capacity with 50 buses, they could have continued to add capacity with additional buses to meet future growth.  East Link will always be limited to 4440 rph. 

The DEIS also claimed “Travel times across I-90 for vehicles and trucks would also improve or remain similar with East Link".  Sound Transit ignored a September 2004 FHA, Record of Decision, "I-90 Two-Way Transit and HOV Operations Project".  It concluded, even with added lanes on I-90 Bridge outer roadways for HOV, the center roadway was still needed for vehicles.  

Sound Transit’s Prop 1 has failed to increase bus capacity has already forced commuters throughout the area to endure years of needless congestion.  It’s East Link extension halves Central Link capacity fro SeaTac, has devastated the route into Bellevue, done nothing to ease congestion on I-90 corridor, and will inevitably lead to gridlock on I-90 Bridge outer roadway.  

Clearly, East Link epitomizes the fact that Prop 1 passage was the beginning of 10 years of actions that go way beyond “malfeasant” or “incompetent”.  Sound Transit has already spent billions extending Central Link to Northgate and Angel Lake. They’re currently spending millions on Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions as part of their light rail spine to Everett and Tacoma.

None of the extensions will increase transit capacity, so any riders added will simply reduce access for current Central Link commuters.  They longer routes will increase operating costs requiring an increase in tolls or a large subsidy to cover fare box revenue shortfall. 

While nothing can be done about East Link, Northgate, or Angel Lake extensions, much of the $54 billion ST3 funds remain to be spent.  They should be spent expediting light rail to West Seattle and Ballard. Sound Transit’s decade of fraud since Prop 1 passed is enough!