WSDOT Tolling Mendacity

 The 3/27 Bellevue Reporter front-page article, “Commission approves I-405 express tolls”, is just the latest example of WSDOT mendacity when it comes to dealing with the area’s transportation problems.  While they pawn off direct responsibility, the WSTC was obviously doing so at the behest of the WSDOT.

First of all, the whole idea that an HOV lane increases capacity is absurd unless it is used to accommodate a large numbers of buses.   For example buses use the two I-5 HOV lanes to accommodate 14 million riders annually or 44% of commuters.   It makes no sense to restrict a highway lane to facilitate bus service that currently consists of Sound Transit’s ST535 between Lynnwood and Bellevue every 30 minutes. 

Car pool benefits don’t have to include HOV access.  I did so for years (before HOV) as a Boeing employee commuting between Bellevue and Everett, and the Development Center in Seattle.  The economic benefits don’t disappear without HOV and the vast majority of commuters apparently unable or unwilling to car pool would benefit by having access to all the lanes. 

The WSTC claim “A two-lane express toll lane system both ways from Northeast Sixth Street to State Route 522 is expected to add capacity on I-405 when it comes on line, as is a one-lane system both ways between ST 522 and I-5 in Lynnwood” is totally absurd.   The fact they require 3+ for HOV lanes simply adds to the absurdity.  Again, unless ST dramatically increases bus routes, the way to increase capacity is to allow everyone to use all the lanes.

Rather than increasing capacity the WSDOT is attempting to use the added lanes as a revenue source.   (It's not clear what gave them the authority to add tolls to an existing interstate highway.) The article claims the average tolls will be between 75 cents and $4 increasing to $10 as a maximum for congestion expected only 10% of the travel days.  They predict tolls for “seventy-seven percent of the trips are expected to be below $1.00”. 

Yet the WSDOT in the same article reports “I-405 experiences up to eight hours of congestion daily, amounting to one of the worst traffic situations in the state”.  How is it possible that maximum congestion is expected only “10% of the travel days” and “seventy seven percent of the trips won’t occur during the eight hours of congestion”.   Even these absurdities are topped by the claim “All lanes of I-405 will be able to go 45 mph or faster once the express lanes open this fall”.

Again, the tolling debacle is just the latest example of WSDOT mendacity in dealing with the area’s transportation.

Sound Transit Needs Another Audit

The 3/15/15 post urged that legislation allowing Sound Transit to ask voters for an additional $11B from property taxes be contingent on ST demonstrating closing the I-90 Bridge center roadway would not affect outer roadway congestion and explaining how East Link could provide sufficient capacity to meet cross lake transit needs.  That’s apparently not going to happen. 

However, the legislature does have another opportunity to ensure the additional billions won’t be wasted on a fatally flawed light rail system.  Make the legislation contingent on an audit of ST finances for construction and operation of both the Prop 1 extensions and their 2040 plans.

The 11/06/12 post “Faulty Sound Transit Audit” detailed problems with then State Auditor Brian Sontag’s 125-page report and urged a new audit.    That hasn’t happened and ST finances have continued to deteriorate.  The Prop 1 Central Link extensions have been truncated from Mill Creek to Northgate and from Federal Way to Angle Lake, while East Link has been shortened from Redmond to Overlake.  Yet, they’ve already needed a $1.33B loan that will require 50M annually for 48 years to pay off.  

It’s clear they’ll need additional revenue since they still have another 8 years of major funding to complete even the truncated Prop I extensions.   The audit would require ST detail exactly how and where they intend to spend the new property tax revenue on light rail extensions.  The audit would also require ST predict the added fare box revenue and operating expenses with the extensions. 

The 1/22/15 post explains why an audit will “likely” conclude the current truncated Prop 1 extensions when completed will require huge subsidies to cover shortfall between operating costs and fare box revenue.  Those subsidies would be dwarfed by those required if ST completes the Prop 1 extensions and their 2040 extensions.

The legislators surely have a responsibility to require an audit, if not as part of the property tax enabling legislation, at least have the results available for the public prior to any vote. 

WSTC I-405 Tolling Will Increase Congestion

The proposal by the Washington State Transportation Commission in the March 16 Seattle Times is just the latest example of the incompetence of those responsible for the areas transportation system.   The proposal makes one wonder whether the commission members have ever tried commuting along I-405.

While I rarely commute during peak hours, Friday morning I experienced I-405 congestion first hand with a 9:00 A.M. drive south on I-405 from Totem Lake to Bellevue.  I was fortunate to have a passenger so had access to the HOV onramp from 128^th. It gave me direct access to the I-405 HOV lane, avoiding the long lines for those using the regular access lanes.  Once on I-405, there was very little traffic and I was able to travel at or near the speed limit until just north of Bellevue where I had to cross the “regular” lanes to get to the SE 8^th exit.   

By contrast, I doubt if those on the regular lanes were averaging more the 20 mph along that stretch of I-405.  The very limited traffic on the HOV lane along with the benefit from car pooling makes it obvious that the vast majority of drivers have great difficulty in finding a rider.   Yet the transportation commission is proposing to make it more difficult by requiring those who use the HOV lanes to find 2 riders. 

What is even more absurd, rather than using the new I-405 lane to reduce congestion for all those forced to use regular lanes, they’re planning to use it as an additional HOV lane.  It’s bad enough their “3+ requirement” will result in more cars forced to use the regular lanes.  The fact they want to devote a 2^nd lane for those willing and able to pay $10 per commute is unconscionable.   

Bruce Agnew, whose Cascadia Academy has “promoted and monitored HOT lanes for 10 years”,  was quoted as saying "tolled lanes resulted in less congestion in all lanes”.  That seems rather “optimistic”.   Typical of those promoting tolls they tend to besmirch buses with claims “Transit gets stalled in the same bad traffic” and “It took buses an average 45 minutes to make the morning commute”.   While the ST535 schedule shows it takes 42 minutes between Lynnwood and Bellevue T/C, the bus makes 4 time-consuming intermediate stops along the route.  (It seemed a rather "unusual" critique since buses also use the HOV lanes.)

There is absolutely no reason they couldn’t add direct bus routes and increase frequency from both Lynnwood and Everett.   (They currently run every 30 minutes, which is probably why I never saw any during my commute.)    Currently 14 million annual transit riders use buses on the I-5 corridor.   Doing more to emulate that success is the only way to reduce I-405 congestion.  The commission’s approach will only make it worse.

Senate Republicans Don't Get Light Rail Debacle

The Seattle Times March 8^th editorial praising Republican Senators for passing the “Transportation Package” is another reminder of the fact they and now the Senate Republicans don’t understand the debacle facing the area from Sound Transit’s light rail program.

The 11.7-cent-per-gallon increase in gas tax will generate about $250M annually for transportation projects.   Yet the ST 2015 budget has them spending nearly twice that money on light rail projects that will do absolutely nothing to ease I-5 congestion and will actually increase I-90 bridge congestion.   Those expenditures will likely have to more than double over the next few years to complete the Prop 1 extensions by 2023.   

Prop 1, which voters approved funding for in 2008, was supposed to extend from Mill Creek to Federal Way and across I-90 to downtown Redmond.  Now ST claims additional funds are needed to extend beyond Northgate and Angle Lake along I-5 corridor and Overlake on the east side.  ST has apparently convinced the Republican Senators to allow them to ask voters to approve an additional $11B in property taxes, most of which will be needed to complete the Prop 1 extensions  

However, if Senate Republicans prevail, ST will be able to use the next 6 months promoting their ST 2040 plan for light rail extensions to every conceivable location to garner voter support.   The 12/12/14 post details why the entire ST 2040 is “beyond words” that can adequately describe its problems.  It’s like a modern day version of the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperors New Clothes” with the “weavers of the magic cloth” portrayed by the Seattle Transit Board plans with their “magic carpet of light rail”.   Like the fable, none of this would be possible without the support of the “wise men” of the Seattle Times urging voter support.

Unfortunately any money used to complete even the initial Prop 1 extensions will be wasted.   The 12/20/14 post explains why Central Link extensions beyond the University in the north and SeaTac in the south will do absolutely nothing to relieve I-5 congestion.   East Link’s confiscation of the I-90 center roadway will actually increase cross-lake congestion.   Even worse, the high operating costs for light rail trains will require huge subsidies to operate over the longer routes.

East Link alone will require more than $250M annually to cover the shortfall between increased operating costs and any rational estimate for additional fare box revenue (See 1/22/15 post). The 12/20/14 post also explains how any ST 2040 extensions will exacerbate the operating cost shortfall and do nothing to relieve congestion anywhere.

The legislature needs to recognize that unless something is done, ST plans to begin East Link construction this year.  As explained in the 3/07/15 post, not only will its construction disrupt cross-lake commuters and devastate the route into Bellevue, its operation will end forever the quiet solitude of the Mercer Slough Park and, more importantly, increase cross-lake congestion.  

A competent state department of transportation would have required ST meet two requirements years before they allowed them to permanently close the I-90 Bridge center roadway.   First, demonstrate the 4th lanes they add to the I-90 Bridge outer roadway will make up for the loss of the 2 center roadway lanes.   The ST version of the R-8A configuration allowing center roadway closure differs from the R-8A configuration the FHA approved in their Sept. 2004 ROD.  It required the two center roadway lanes be retained for HOV traffic.  Make ST “demonstrate” the FHA is wrong.   

The second requirement is that ST provide a detailed explanation of what East Link operation will consist of when service begins in 2023 (current plans call for one 4-car train every 8 minutes) and a “satisfactory” explanation of how light rail will meet current and future cross-lake transit demands

Unfortunately, the WSDOT under Secretary Lynn Peterson, who is also on the Sound Transit Board, apparently fails to recognize the need to meet either of these two basic transportation requirements.

Thus its up to the legislature to either make legislation allowing them to ask for voter approved property taxes contingent on meeting the above requirements or to use their WSDOT oversight to insist they require ST do so before approving closure of bridge center roadway.  Whichever option is used, the best outcome would be for ST to "concede" East Link can’t  meet either requirement and end it.  Since thats not likely to happen it will take legislative action to stop it.  

Stopping East Link could be just the first step in preventing ST from wasting hundreds of millions each year that, if redirected, could go a long way towards ending the need for any increase in gas taxes.  But time is getting short.  

The Ultimate Debacle of East Link

The 2/13/15 post detailed why Sound Transit’s closure of the South Bellevue P&R next March will create chaos for those who used the P&R for access to transit.   They will have to chose between driving into Seattle and likely paying for expensive parking there or attempting to use East Gate P&R, forcing many of those who currently fill the facility by 7:30 AM to drive into Seattle.  In any case hundreds of additional commuters will be forced to drive into Seattle.

The 2/18/15 post detailed why the additional commuters will exacerbate the already increased congestion on the I-90 Bridge outer roadway caused by ST’s closure of the bridge center roadway in 2017.   The end result will be light rail construction will increase congestion for all cross-lake commuters.  The construction will also force the closure of 112^th Ave, a major route into Bellevue, to install light rail tracks and an elevated roadway.   ST plans to use 108^th, a quiet residential street to accommodate the traffic is totally absurd.  The more likely result will be hundreds of additional cars joining mile long lines on I-405 for other routes into downtown Bellevue. 

ST’s other problem is where do they get the money for construction.  The 1/22/15 post explains that construction costs far exceeding current revenue sources have already forced them to get a $1.3B loan.  The construction costs for completing the Prop 1 extensions are only going to escalate with little increase in revenue.  Unless ST can convince voters to provide additional funding (current request to legislature to allow vote on allowing ST to collect property taxes) they’ll need an additional $2-3B in loans to complete Prop 1 extensions.  Paying off those loans will require $150M annually for 48 years. 

Maybe these “temporary” (if 7 years can be called temporary) problems for transit riders, increased cross-lake congestion, disruption to commuters and those living along the route into Bellevue, the huge financial debt load, and loss of the quiet solitude of Mercer Slough Park (2/21/15 post) could be justified if East Link lived up to what ST promised in 2008 was “a gift to our grand children”.  

Their 2008 DEIS claimed that East Link “peak hour capacity of up to 18,000 to 24,000 people per hour, was equivalent to between 6 to 10 freeway lanes of traffic”.   The DEIS claimed East Link  would "Meet  growing transit and mobility demands by increasing person-moving capacity across Lake Washington on I-90 by up to 60 percent".  The reality is East Link will, at most, consist of one 4-car train every 8 minutes with a total capacity of 8880 PPH.   

That level is suspect because, typical of ST incompetence, they chose to demonstrate their I-90 design could withstand light rail loads with only 2-car trains. (East Link is first attempt to install light rail on a “floating bridge”) That’s probably the reason they still hadn’t “finalized” the design at their Feb. 9^th status review to Bellevue City Council.  Potential solutions including reducing the number of cars or severely limiting train speed on the bridge would further reduce the capacity.

Even the 4-car train every 8 minutes provides only thirty 74-seat light rail cars per hour.   Yet ST is planning to terminate all I-90 cross-lake buses at the South Bellevue and Mercer Island light rail stations with its Integrated Transit System (ITS).  The 30 light rail cars can’t possibly accommodate the current 84 buses per hour ST anticipates for MI, let alone a presumably similar number of East Gate buses ST plans to route to South Bellevue.   (The fact neither station design can accommodate all the buses attempting to drop off and pick up riders adds to the insanity.)   And these numbers don't even include all the "non-transit" riders attempting to use East Link.

East Link’s lack of capacity and ST ITS plans to require cross-lake riders transfer to and from light rail at the two stations will undoubtedly convince many commuters to “drive rather than ride”, adding to bridge congestion.  Thus all the above problems associated with creating East Link will result in a transportation system that increases rather than decreases cross-lake congestion when it begins operation.

And if that isn’t bad enough, as explained in the 1/22/15 post, East Link operation will require ST provide more than $250M annually to cover the short fall between operating costs and fare box revenue.  That's in addition to whatever is required to pay off the construction loans.   If East Link doesn’t qualify as the ultimate transportation debacle I don’t know what does.