ST CEO Constantine's “Fresh Look” at Budget

An earlier post detailed CEO Constantine’s response to a 20%-25% increase over the 2024 Long Term Financial Plan and $22B-$30B more capital in year of expenditures was “everything is on the table,” and hoped a “fresh look will improve future transit.”

The September 25^th Sound Transit Board meeting video showed the results of his board’s “fresh look”.  Without any comment the board unanimously approved a Consent Agenda that included the following:

 

Motion No. M2025-48: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract modification with Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. for additional Everett Link Extension and Operations and Maintenance Facility North Phase 2 work for project development services including advancement of Conceptual Engineering and preparation of the Draft EIS and partial exercise a contract option to advance specific geotechnical scopes from Phase 3 of the contract in the amount of $73,000,000 with a 10 percent contingency of $7,300,000 totaling $80,300,000 for a new total authorized contract amount not to exceed $173,512,897, Recommended by the System Expansion Committee

 

Thus, Sound Transit’s  “fresh look” will include spending up to $173.5 million for preliminary work on an ST3 light rail extension to Everett and a north maintenance facility. They still don’t recognize that providing access to transit doesn’t assure riders. That 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in only 8462 riders in July, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 they’d predicted.  

 

Sound Transit’s been studying the extension since 2021 with the Agency Progress Report: Capital Program, June 2024 (latest available) showing a staff of 18.5 and 106.3 “consultants”. Yet, they still haven’t provided any data concerning the total cost or predicted ridership. 

 

The latest Everett Link Extension website details it will add 16 miles of light rail, 6 new stations, and an Operation and Maintenance Facility (OMF) North. Yet the Mariner station,the only one with parking for access, won’t add parking until 2046.  They still haven’t found the 100 acres they’ll need for OMF North or what it will cost.

 

The Everett Extension service plan, 4-6 minutes during peak, 10-15 minutes midday, weekends and evenings requires ~150 round trips, with 75 to Mariner and 75 to Everett. (it’s not clear how they will merge the 1 Line return routes from Everett with the  2 Line routes to Mariner)  

 

The cost of providing those trains was presumably part of the $5B added annually by extensions that prompted Constantine’s need for a “Fresh Look”. With $30.15 per vehicle revenue mile cost (per 2024 actual cost)  the 16 mile extension will add  $3860 for the round trip from Lynnwood to and from Everett, and about half that to Mariner station and back.  Thus, the Everett Link will add $432,000 to weekday daily costs.

However, potential Everett Link riders already have Community Transit  512 Routes to Lynnwood. Sound Transit's June Ridership reported 1135 daily boarders. It runs from every 15 minutes during most of the day from 3:55 a.m. to 11:25 p.m. taking about 20 minutes for the trip. With $17.05 revenue mile bus operating costs, the 14-mile route to Everett and back  costs $477.40, $38,192 for the 80 daily trips.

 

The bottom line is Constantine’s “Fresh Look” could save unknown billions spent extending tracks for light rail trains that cost nearly $400,000 daily more to operate than the bus routes they'll replace  by cancelling the Everett Link extension.