Another Year of Traffic Lab Incompetence?

The Seattle Times describes Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock, and helps readers find the best ways to get around. It is funded with the help of community sponsors Alaska Airlines, Kemper Development Co., NHL Seattle, PEMCO Mutual Insurance Company and Seattle Children’s hospital. Seattle Times editors and reporters operate independently of our funders and maintain editorial control over Traffic Lab content.”

The fact the Seattle Times maintains “editorial control over Traffic Lab content” raises questions as to who decides how they deal with “transportation issues”.   That another year of apparent Traffic Lab incompetence may reflect “editorial” control rather than an inability of the Times staff to recognize the problems.

For example it’s been over a year since ST CEO Peter Rogoff presented his 2019 budget to the Sound Transit Board. It included the following:

We introduced a new mission statement: “We are connecting more people to more places.”

It’s unclear what Sound Transit’s previous “mission statement” was.  The “new mission” included plans to use $63 billion in taxes as part of $96 billion of revenue to finance $50 billion in capital expenditures between 2017 and 2041. However any journalist with a modicum of public transit competence would have recognized Sound Transit’s long term plans for light rail extensions will do little to “connect more people to more places”.

The problem being Sound Transit’s decision to route the light rail spine through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will limit its capacity to a fraction of the capacity needed to accommodate the riders required to reduce roadway congestion.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited trains to 4 cars, that each 74-seat car could accommodate 148 riders, and safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains giving a total capacity of 8880 people per hour per direction (pphpd). 

None of the billions spent on Prop 1 extensions will increase that capacity. When Northgate begins operation in 2021, any riders added will reduce access for University Link riders. When East Link begins operation in 2023, half the capacity to SeaTac will diverted across I-90 Bridge to Bellevue. The billions spent extending light rail from Northgate to Lynnwood or from Angel Lake to Federal Way will further reduce access for current riders.  Clearly extensions beyond Lynnwood or Federal Way will exacerbate the problem for riders along the entire spine.  The only result of the longer routes will be the need for more light rail cars and higher subsidies to cover operating costs. 

Yet the Seattle Times Traffic Lab abided if not abetted CEO Rogoff’s 2019 budget projections the light rail extensions will increase ridership from 22 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041. Even more absurd they abet Sound Transit plans to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle; reducing transit capacity into Seattle.  The problem being all the parking facilities with access to existing express bus or train stations have been full or years.  Yet Sound Transit waits until 2024 to begin spending $698 million over the next 17 years adding a measly 8560 parking stalls.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab has abetted another year of Sound Transit Link spending 86 percent of the $2.4 billion on light rail extension projects during 2019.  It’s brought us another year closer to 2021 when an additional $4 billion will have been spent on extensions that include completion of the Northgate Link.  Its operation will result in bus riders being forced to transfer to and from light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle, reducing transit capacity into Seattle and displacing current University Link riders.

Its also brought us another year closer to 2023 when another $4.5 billion will have been spent on East Link and other extensions.  East Link operation will halve Central Link capacity to SeaTac.  Sound Transit again intends to use it to replace cross-lake bus routes, agreeing to halve current I-90 buses in order to terminate routes on Mercer Island.  Increasing congestion on both routes into Seattle.  It’s also another year closer to when the billions spent on Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions will further displace current riders and double trip costs.  

Again it's not clear whether it's another year of Traffic Lab incompetence or another year of "editorial" failure to recognize the problems.  Still it's another year of ever increasing congestion and another year closer to when the entire area will recognize the transit fraud the Seattle Times has allowed to be perpetrated on the entire area.