Another year of Traffic Lab Failure

It’s been a year since Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff’s October 2018 presentation of his 2019 Budget Plan for 2017 to 2041 to the Sound Transit Board.   It should have been a “wake-up” call for those who believed Sound Transit’s ST3 “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail extensions would reduce congestion on the area’s roadways.  That Sound Transit CEO Rogoff plan to use $64 billion in taxes to implement what he proudly called “the most ambitious transit system expansion in the country” would do nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle. 

The Traffic Lab could have told readers that $96 Billion will be spent over the next 22 years continuing King County Executive Dow Constantine’s Sound Transit Board decade of refusing to recognize the limitations of light rail and the effectiveness of BRT. That what Rogoff calls their new mission statement,  “We are connecting more people to more places,” was instead sheer fantasy.

Instead it’s been another year of their abiding if not abetting Sound Transit malfeasance.  Even the Seattle Times in a 4/03/16 editorial, “Questions on Transit Need Clear Answers” raised concerns. They questioned Sound Transit Chairman Dow Constantine’s “veracity”, the “wisdom” of committing to spend $50 billion over the next 25 years on light rail extensions. The editorial concluded:

The point is voters need their representatives to provide clear, objective explanations of ST3’s pros and cons, not cheerleading.  Costs and benefits of rail versus buses is one of several topics that must be clarified.

Even a cursory analysis would have recognized the benefits of high capacity transit buses.  A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate 119 sitting and standing riders.  An additional 100 HCT buses an hour could provide rides for more than 10,000 commuters each hour, the equivalent of 5 lanes of 45 mph traffic; without spending a dime on light rail extensions.

Instead three years later Sound Transit’s response was typified by their 2019 2^nd quarter ST Express Revenue Vehicle Miles, 3,025,786; only 13% higher than the comparable 2,675,453 level in 2009.  Even worse Sound Transit intends to use light rail to replace existing bus routes rather than increasing bus service.  Rogoff’s 2019 budget projects no increase in bus ridership between 2017 and 2041. 

They also could have told readers CEO Rogoff’s 2019 budget projections for light rail ridership increasing over the 2017 to 2041 period were delusional.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited Central Link capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.  The billions spent on light rail spine over the next two decades do nothing to increase that capacity.  Yet the Sound Transit budget projects light rail ridership will increase from 22 million annually in 2017 to 162 million in 2041.

Anyone with a modicum of transportation competence would recognize Sound Transit doesn’t recognize either the benefits of BRT or the limits of light rail in Seattle.  Unfortunately the Traffic Lab has spent another year refusing to do so.