CEO Rogoff and Traffic Lab Don't "Get it"

The Dec. 22^nd Seattle Times B1 article, “Sound Transit finds $200M savings for Lynnwood rail line” epitomizes Traffic Lab’s failure to “Get it”.   For a “project that digs into the region’s transportation issues” and “spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock” the article fails to do either.  The article reports, despite Sound Transit savings, CEO Rogoff’s concerns about Lynnwood extension budget problems due to “Suburban cities requests" and loss in car-tab taxes from not being able to “overvalue newer vehicles,” are overshadowed by the loss of the $1.17 grant from the Federal Transportation Administration (FTA).  

Rogoff was apparently “involved” with the grant since his biography included the following:

In May 2009 the Senate confirmed Rogoff as the President’s Federal Transit Administrator. As the nation’s chief public transit official, Rogoff led the Federal Transit Administration (FTA).   In July 2014, the United States Senate confirmed Peter M. Rogoff to the position of Under Secretary of Transportation for Policy in the U.S. Department of Transportation. As Federal Transit Administrator, Rogoff negotiated and signed a record number of full funding grant agreements with transit agencies across the nation to expand rail and bus rapid transit infrastructure.

Some may consider Rogoff’s background as justifying County Executive Dow Constantine’s decision to hire him as Sound Transit CEO.  Others may conclude he was hired as a “reward” for the grant.   Rogoff’s biography didn’t include any details as to what qualified him for either federal position.  What was his academic background or previous involvement with public transit? 

Whatever Rogoff’s background, apparently neither he nor the Transit Lab recognize problems with funding the Lynnwood extension “pale in comparison” to the fact it will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  Transportation system capacity is defined by the number of vehicles per hour times the number of riders in each vehicle.  Sound Transit’s decision to extend Central Link rather than create a 2^nd tunnel limits that capacity. 

The PSRC concluded in an April 2004 Technical Workbook, “Central Puget Sound Region, High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited capacity to 8880 rph.   They based that on the assumption the DSTT station lengths limited the number of trains to 4 cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains and that each 74-seat car can accommodate up to 148 riders.   (“Unfortunately” the PSRC Technical Workbook is no longer available on the Internet.)  The Sound Transit 2008 East Link DEIS described East Link operation as “having headways of 9-15 minutes” presumably reflecting its half of the DSTT trains . 

Clearly spending billions extending light rail beyond Northgate will do nothing to increase it. Sound Transit could achieve the 8880 rph capacity increase to Lynnwood with an additional100 bus routes an hour without spending a dime on light rail.

The Dec 22nd article included Sound Transit claim the Lynnwood extension would add 67,000 daily riders despite a Nov 4^th, 2016 Traffic Lab article conceding ST3 extensions wouldn’t reduce congestion.  They neglected to mention that prior to the vote last fall, Sound Transit had projected the ST3 extension to Everett would add up to 45,000 riders.  Even a fraction of Sound Transits projected ridership from the two extensions would end access at Northgate and other stations nearer Seattle. 

Clearly CEO Rogoff and the Seattle Times Traffic Lab need to “get it” regarding the Lynnwood extension.