Looking Back On 2025

Looking back on 2025 was another year of Sound Transit failing to recognize the folly of extending light rail for 4-car trains for ST3.  That 4-car trains won’t provide the capacity needed to reduce peak hour roadway congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.  Thus, light rail tracks, limited to 4-car trains, should have never been extended past UW Stadium, across I-90 Bridge and beyond SeaTac airport.  

Those areas already had King County Metro, Snohomish Community and Pierce County Transit service that could have been increased to meet future needs. Funds used extending tracks could have been better used to provide parking for increased access. Instead, Sound Transit continued to provide riders by using light rail trains to replace the buses. Reducing  the transit capacity into Seattle, nothing to reduce freeway GP lane congestion, and reducing access to transit for those nearer the city.

 

2025 was a full year of routes demonstrating providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership.  Riders for the extension from UW Stadium Station to Northgate and beyond to Lynnwood were far less than Sound Transit predicted and should have ended plans for extensions to Everett.  Ridership for the  2 Line Starter Line from Redmond to South Bellevue was also less than predicted, 

Plans to use 2 Line trains for half  the routes to Lynnwood will result in problems for safely merging the two return routes.  Increasing 2 Line trains from two to four cars will double the operating cost but add few riders. Plans to use the 2 Line to replace ST550 will reduce access for many current commuters.

2025 was also the year of the Multiple Award Task Order Contracts (MATOC) when 22 companies were authorized to spend up to $1B and 7 years providing “Project management/construction services” purportedly to reduce costs.  Yet Sound Transit’s approved 2026 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan apparently included $382 million and 1321 positions  for system expansion, something they’ve been doing for more than a decade.  Spending up to $1B reducing the cost of additional track extensions could be far better spent improving reliability of trains on existing extensions.

The bottom line is 2025 was another year of a Sound Transit  Board spending more money attempting to reduce costs on light rail extensions that won’t reduce the area’s congestion.

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State’s Carbon Market Revenue Climate Benefits

The December 18th Seattle Times Climate Lab column heralds “State carbon market revenue hits $4.3B as prices  reach record’”. Climate Lab is a Seattle Times initiative that explores the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest and beyond. The question being  who’s emitting the CO2, who’s buying the carbon emission allowances, and what are the benefits of the carbon market fees on Washington’s climate. 

The Energy Information Agency (EIA) detailed in 2023 that major sources  for CO2 emissions were 4.7 million metric tons (MMT)  from burning coal, 21.2 MMT from Natural Gas, and 50.4 MMT from petroleum.  It’s not clear whether coal powered emissions will end this year as the Department of Energy is objecting to the closure.  The closure, the final result of a state’s  decision decades ago to not use the 700 million tons of mineable coal in the state to fuel generators..

Those sources, again, per EIA in 2023, resulted in Washington emitting  42.5 MMT from transportation, 11.5 MMT from industrial, 9.5 MMT for electric power, 6.2 MMT residential, and 5.0 MMT commercial.  The 50.4 MMT CO2 petroleum emissions were used primarily for the 42.5 MMT transportation.  

Refining crude oil into gas and transferring the gas to the fuel pump can  result in emitting up  to 6.7 lbs of CO2 per gallon.  Burning that gallon in a vehicle will result in 20 more pounds of CO2 emissions. The 5 oil refiners in the state purchased the carbon market allowances to cover the former but no one will pay anything for those burning the gas in their vehicle.  The funds paid by refiners are passed on to those buying gas, part of the reason why fuel  costs so much in the state. 

The carbon allowance fees collected for the  21.2 MMT emitted from those burning natural gas to generate electricity will be passed on to those using the power to meet  industry, residents, and commerce needs.  Those burning the natural gas for those  purposes won’t. 

Thus the $4.3B carbon allowance fees and future fees will only  deter less than half the future CO2 emissions.  Any climate benefit from Washington’s carbon marketing fee is limited to the state only emitting 1.2% of the country’s 11% of planets, or ~0.12% of the total emissions.  A benefit dwarfed by the jet stream from China’s 30% of the planet’s total emissions.  Another reason why only Washington and California are attempting this approach.

Why the MADOC Funding ?

The December 11th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee agenda included the following “Business Item” for “Recommendation to the Board”. 

 

Motion No. M2025-62: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute 22 individual Multiple Award Task Order Contracts for five years, each with two one-year options to extend, ….(22 companies)… to provide Sound Transit with project management/construction management services such that the aggregate total amount of the 22 contracts does not exceed $1,000,000,000 over the potential seven-year period, and that task orders exceeding $10,000,000 or are restricted by Resolution No. R2021-05 are subject to Committee or Board approval.

 

While it’s December 14th, and they still haven’t released the meeting video, they presumably will approve it.  Especially since these contractors are presumably the same contractors included in the System Expansion Monthly Status Report for October

 

▪ Multiple Award Task Order Contract (MATOC) — Process and Tools:

• Following the Design MATOC evaluation, 19 firms were recommended for contract awards and subsequently approved by the Board.

The Sound Transit 2026 Proposed Budget and Financial Plan the board approved had included Appendix C: Departments and Staffing for 2026. It detailed the budget had increased 18.1%, from $960.6M to $1134.7M and the number of positions increased 12.4%, from 1635 to 1838,

The budget also details how Sound Transit’s budget is used to provide the  transit service:

 

Sound Transit delivers transit services through a

combination of strategic partnerships with regional

transportation agencies and direct operations:

• T Line is the only mode operated directly by Sound Transit 

• The remaining modes are operated through

agreements with the following partners:

o King County Metro for Link Light Rail.

o King County Metro, Community Transit, and

Pierce Transit for ST Express Bus.

o BNSF Railway for Sounder Commuter Rail.

 

The positions and funds for this transit service are presumably reflected in the Appendix C’s $753 million Service Delivery budget, a 17.5 % increase from 2025, and 517 added positions,  a 15.1% increase from 2025. The  remaining $382 million budget and 1321 positions will presumably be used for system expansion in 2026, something they’ve been doing for many years. 

Yet, still not recognizing that 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to attract enough commuters  to reduce peak-hour-multilane-freeway congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. That access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership.

The question remains, why the need for MATOC’s 22 outside companies and up to $1 billion in funding to confirm that failure.

Reducing I-405 Renton-to-Bellevue Congestion

The December 4th Seattle Times front page Traffic Lab article “Return to office mandates aren’t the only reason Seattle Traffic got worse” details the problem.  That “Seattle sits in 10th place behind only a few of the nation's largest and most traffic-logged cities”.  That “Not coincidentally the stretch of northbound I-405 between Renton and interstate 90 was the most congested roadway in the region, and the 24th most congestion in the country”.  

The article’s culprit: work on the interstates, and return to office mandates by some of the area’s largest employers. Construction to add another lane has been delayed until 2027. The article quotes Bob Pishue,, a transportation analyst at INRIX, “There’s no solution to congestion.”

 

While there may be no solution there are ways to reduce it.  For example the article’s I-405 picture shows hundreds of vehicles but no buses. A high capacity bus can accommodate over 100 riders.The only Sound Transit bus route in area, ST560, runs every 30 minutes. Sound Transit could run buses every 5 minutes, 1200 riders per hour, and add parking if needed for access.

 

The expectation for reduced travel time with added fourth lane is belied by WSDOT plans to use it and existing HOV lane for collecting HOT fares. That current 2-person carpoolers using the HOV lanes will be forced to either pay the fees or join the congestion on the two existing GP lanes between Renton and Bellevue. The WSDOT Friday 8:05 Travel Time for the 10.92-mile Renton-to-Bellevue route was 16 minutes on HOV Lane.  Forcing current HOV lane drivers, unwilling to pay the HOT fees, to GP lanes will add to the current 31 minutes for those already using the lanes

 

Even that HOT benefit could be limited.  During peak commute the resulting increased GP lane congestion will likely result in more drivers willing to pay the HOT fees than the 2000 vph optimum required for 45 mph: Extending travel times for those paying the fees.  During off peak hours those willing to pay the fees will still be restricted by speed limits, but HOV lane vehicle capacity will be wasted. 

 

The bottom line is Renton-to-Bellevue travel times can be reduced by adding parking and bus routes for riders, use added lane for additional GP vehicles rather than for HOT, and limit HOT to a single lane with fees